From: Biniam Tekle (biniamt@dehai.org)
Date: Tue Mar 09 2010 - 13:41:06 EST
http://www.nytimes.com/2010/03/06/world/africa/06somalia.html
March 5, 2010
U.S. Aiding Somalia in Its Plan to Retake Its Capital By JEFFREY GETTLEMAN
MOGADISHU, Somalia — The Somali government is preparing a major offensive to
take back this capital block by crumbling block, and it takes just a listen
to the low growl of a small surveillance plane circling in the night sky
overhead to know who is surreptitiously backing that effort.
“It’s the Americans,” said Gen. Mohamed Gelle Kahiye, the new chief of
Somalia’s military, who said he recently shared plans about coming military
operations with American advisers. “They’re helping us.”
That American assistance could be crucial to the effort by Somalia’s
government to finally reassert its control over the capital and bring a
semblance of order to a country that has been steeped in anarchy for two
decades. For the Americans, it is part of a counterterrorism strategy to
deny a haven to Al Qaeda, which has found sanctuary for years in Somalia’s
chaos and has helped turn this country into a magnet for jihadists from
around the world.
The United States is increasingly concerned about the link between Somalia
and Yemen, a growing extremist hot spot, with fighters going back and forth
across the Red Sea in what one Somali watcher described as an “Al Qaeda
exchange program.”
But it seems there has been a genuine shift in Somali policy, too, and the
Americans have absorbed a Somali truth that eluded them for nearly 20 years:
If Somalia is going to be stabilized, it is going to take Somalis.
“This is not an American offensive,” said Johnnie Carson, the assistant
secretary of state for Africa. “The U.S. military is not on the ground in
Somalia. Full stop.”
He added, “There are limits to outside engagement, and there has to be an
enormous amount of local buy-in for this work.”
Most of the American military assistance to the Somali government has been
focused on training, or has been channeled through African
Unionpeacekeepers. But that could change. An American official in
Washington, who
said he was not authorized to speak publicly, predicted that American covert
forces would get involved if the offensive, which could begin in a few
weeks, dislodged Qaeda terrorists.
“What you’re likely to see is airstrikes and Special Ops moving in, hitting
and getting out,” the official said.
Over the past several months, American advisers have helped supervise the
training of the Somali forces to be deployed in the offensive, though
American officials said that this was part of a continuing program to “build
the capacity” of the Somali military, and that there has been no increase in
military aid for the coming operations.
The Americans have provided covert training to Somali intelligence officers,
logistical support to the peacekeepers, fuel for the maneuvers, surveillance
information about insurgent positions and money for bullets and guns.
Washington is also using its heft as the biggest supplier of humanitarian
aid to Somalia to encourage private aid agencies to move quickly into “newly
liberated areas” and deliver services like food and medicine to the
beleaguered Somali people in an effort to make the government more popular.
Whenever Somalia has hit a turning point in the past, the United States has
been there, sometimes openly, sometimes not.
In 1992, shortly after the central government imploded, Marines stormed
ashore to help feed starving Somalis. In early 2006, when an Islamist
alliance was poised to sweep the country, the C.I.A. teamed up with warlords
to stop them, and when that backfired, the American military covertly
supported an Ethiopian invasion.
Last summer, when Somalia’s transitional government was nearly toppled by
insurgents linked to Al Qaeda, the American government hastily shipped
inmillions of dollars of weapons.
Since then, the insurgents’ imperative to retake the capital, and eventually
other parts of the country, has grown, American officials say, as Al Qaeda
has even considered relocating some of its leaders from Pakistan to here.
American officials said several high-ranking Qaeda agents were still active
in Somalia, including Fazul Abdullah Mohamed, one of the suspected bombers
of the American Embassies in Kenya and Tanzania in 1998, who is now believed
to be building bombs for the Islamist insurgent group known as Al Shabab.
The Somali government has tried limited offensives before and has failed,
leaving much of the country in the hands of Al Shabab, who have chopped off
heads, banned music and brought a harsh and alien version of Islam to
Somalia.
But officials say that this offensive, or at least the preparations for it,
feels different. First, the government has the advantage of numbers, about
6,000 to 10,000 freshly trained troops, compared with about 5,000 on the
side of Al Shabab and its allies.
In the past six months, Somalia has farmed out young men to Djibouti,
Ethiopia, Uganda, Kenya and even Sudan for military instruction and most are
now back in the capital, waiting to fight. There are also about 5,000
Ugandan and Burundian peacekeepers, with 1,700 more on their way, and they
are expected to play a vital role in backing up advancing Somali forces.
The government is also better armed and equipped. Parked in neat rows behind
Villa Somalia, the president’s hilltop villa in the center of Mogadishu, are
newly painted military trucks, tanks, armored personnel carriers and dozens
of “technicals,” pickup trucks with their windshields sawed off and a cannon
riveted on the back of each one. The government also recently bought 10
Chevrolet ambulances.
There seems to be a qualitative difference, too. Somalia’s forces are now
led by General Gelle, a colonel in Somalia’s army decades ago who most
recently was an assistant manager at a McDonald’s in Germany. He is known
among Somali war veterans as one of the best Somali officers still alive.
Many Somalia observers are confident that the offensive will push back Al
Shabab. The question is what will happen afterward. “To take you need force,
to hold you need discipline,” said Ahmed Abdisalam, a deputy prime minister
in the last Somali government. “What’s going to guarantee those troops don’t
turn on the population?”
Or turn on themselves: many Somalis worry the troops could split along clan
lines, which is what brought down Somalia’s government in 1991. One
lingering criticism of Somalia’s president, Sheik Sharif Sheik Ahmed, is
that he has been too holed up in Villa Somalia and has not engaged with
local power brokers and played clan politics better.
Even though there is a new religious overlay to Somalia’s civil war, with a
moderate Islamist government battling fundamentalist Islamist insurgents,
clan connections still matter and could spell success — or disaster.
That said, the government did recently strike a political agreement with a
powerful moderate Islamist militia, which may join the offensive from the
inland regions of the country. There has also been talk of a militia made up
of Somali refugees living in Kenya advancing from the Kenyan side.
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