From: Biniam Tekle (biniamt@dehai.org)
Date: Thu Mar 11 2010 - 09:29:27 EST
Analysis: Poll puts Rwanda under scrutiny
Photo: Les Neuhaus/IRIN
Internally-displaced people in North Kivu, Democratic Republic of Congo:
Armed Rwandan militias have been blamed for much of the violence there (file
photo)
NAIROBI, 11 March 2010 (IRIN) - Rwanda's upcoming presidential elections has
cast a spotlight on its democratic credentials, with observers warning that
allegations of intimidation of opposition leaders could mar the process.
"It is a very important event for our country because it is the second time
we are electing a head of state," Chrysologue Karangwa, President of the
Electoral Commission, told IRIN. "The people are preparing themselves for
it."
Observers say the prevailing political environment restricts opponents of
the ruling Rwandan Patriotic Front (RPF).
“Rwanda needs to allow the democratic process, to create political space for
everybody,” a Nairobi-based regional analyst, who requested anonymity, said.
“Otherwise the elections will be a fait accompli. That will undermine
Rwanda's democratic growth.”
Paul Kagame has been president since March 2000, after leading the RPF to
power in July 1994 and ending the Rwandan genocide. The slaughter of more
than 800,000 Tutsis and moderate Hutus was by far the bloodiest chapter in a
long power struggle between the minority Tutsis and majority Hutus.
In August 2003, Kagame won 95 percent of the votes in the first national
elections since 1994. His main competitor, Faustin Twagiramungu, won 3.5
percent.
Kagame is widely expected to be nominated again as the RPF flag-bearer in
the 9 August election, but recent incidents involving other potential
candidates have fuelled concerns that the poll will not be fair.
Election questions
"It is very difficult to imagine any opposition candidates who can get a
significant share of the votes," Thomas Cargill, assistant head of the
Africa Programme at Chatham House, said. "The RPF dominates political life
in Rwanda, but it is good for Rwanda to start going through the motions."
He warned, however, that elections sometimes delivered only a semblance of
democracy. "Like Ethiopia and Uganda, the governments of the day need to
maintain the strings of power in some kind of democratic process. So you
need an opposition.
"These governments tread a fine line - allow the opposition to operate and
field candidates, but in a way that does not readily give them any chance,"
he added.
Aid workers in the capital, Kigali, and in Goma, in neighbouring Democratic
Republic of Congo (DRC), are concerned about the potential fallout.
"A political crisis in Rwanda could trigger a humanitarian problem,
including displacement across borders," an international security observer
at an aid mission in Goma told IRIN. "There is also the unresolved question
of armed Rwandan militias in DRC."
The alleged “lack of political space” in Rwanda is frequently cited by the
Hutu diaspora, refugees and such DRC-based militias to justify their refusal
to return home.
Karangwa insisted nothing would disrupt the polls. "I can assure you the
forthcoming elections are going to be free and fair," he told IRIN on 10
March. "We are working towards that objective and are totally open."
Jean Paul Kimonyo, a policy adviser to Kagame, writing in The New Times
newspaper of 9 March, said the country was on the right political track.
"The issue here is how do you ensure political cooperation when
confrontational politics will almost certainly lead to renewed violence?
Photo: IRIN
Rwandan President Paul Kagame (file photo)
"Under President Kagame’s leadership, Rwanda has persistently ensured
ownership of its nation building process by its citizens. It is much more
challenging but certainly more promising."
Impressive gains
Rwanda has, since 1994, recorded impressive gains towards the Millennium
Development Goals, according to the UN Development Programme. Primary school
enrolment, for example, is now 97 percent of all school-going age children.
Family planning, according to the World Bank, has tripled in the last three
years, while assisted deliveries have increased from 39 to 52 percent. The
use of insecticide-treated nets is up by 70 percent, and under-five
mortality has fallen by 30 percent.
Policies and laws that guarantee equal opportunities for men and women,
according to the International Federation of Red Cross and Red Crescent
Societies, have resulted in Rwanda holding a world record of women
parliamentarians: 56.3 percent, just ahead of Sweden at 46.4 percent.
This year, according to Finance and Economic Planning Minister John
Rwangombwa, the economy should grow by 7-8 percent, up from 5.5 percent in
2009.
Nevertheless, Rwanda “needs to open up and encourage past wounds to heal
positively”, a diplomat in the capital, Kigali, told IRIN. Advocacy groups
claim a lack of respect for basic political and human rights, and harassment
of perceived political opponents.
According to the Commonwealth Human Rights Initiative (CHRI), an Indian NGO,
article 13 of Rwanda’s constitution, which makes it an offence to engage in
“revisionism” or “negationism” [denial of genocide], has been “broadly
defined to include anyone who disagrees with the ruling RPF’s account of the
genocide”.
"CHRI is deeply concerned at the continued restrictions and threats to
opposition parties in the run-up to Rwanda’s Presidential elections,” it
said in 6 March statement.
Referring to a 25 February warning by the security ministry that politicians
who “slander the country” or are “against public unity” would be punished,
it called for “immediate steps to ensure respect for the basic, universal
rights to freedom of expression, freedom of association and peaceful
assembly of opposition parties”.
Attacks on opponents
The 3 February attack on Victoire Ingabire, president of the United
Democratic Forces party, and her aide Joseph Ntawangundi, by a mob in Kigali
was the most visible example of opposition harassment so far, the Nairobi
analyst said. Attacked while reportedly collecting party registration
documents, she reportedly lost her passport, while Ntawangundi was severely
beaten.
Photo: Ann Weru/IRIN
A plaque at the Kigali Memorial Centre (file photo)
Ingabire returned to Rwanda in January, after living in Europe for 16 years.
During a visit to the Gisozi Genocide memorial site, she upset survivor
groups by alluding to the killing of Hutus, 85 percent of the population.
The day after the attack on Ingabire, Frank Habineza, president of the Green
Party, reported being threatened. Earlier, the leader of the Ideal Social
Party, Bernard Ntaganda, was called before the senate to answer accusations
relating to propagation of genocide ideology.
Soon after, local government minister James Musoni warned politicians "who
violate the constitution and the rule of law by politicking along ethnic
lines. Whatever they do should not be a stumbling block to people's peace,
unity and security," he said in a press statement.
“Politicians and all those who wish to practise politics are not allowed to
do anything that undermines the sovereignty of Rwanda and its citizens."
The attack on Ingabire, Human Rights Watch (HRW) said, “appeared to have
been well coordinated, suggesting it had been planned in advance”.
"The Rwandan government already tightly controls political space," said
Georgette Gagnon, HRW’s Africa director. "These incidents will further
undermine democracy by discouraging any meaningful opposition in the
elections. On several occasions, the government has used accusations of
participation in the genocide or ‘genocide ideology’, as a way of targeting
and discrediting its critics.”
Karangwa denounced HRW. "That woman has not been beaten, not at all," he
told IRIN. "I do not believe the entire Human Rights Watch report. In our
country there is no intimidation or harassment of opposition leaders."
Kigali resident Joseph Barigye said Ingabire had "provoked" people. "The
memories [of the genocide] are still fresh, so one needs to talk to people
carefully," he told IRIN. "And that is the reason Kagame will win again."
Silencing critics
Ingabire, in an interview with The EastAfrican newspaper on 15 February,
said: “Kagame's government is not ready to accept opposition. This is why
they sent young men to beat me and my aide two weeks ago - which was a true
reflection of the lack of democracy and freedom of expression in Rwanda.
“This treatment extends to all opposition politicians,” she added. “We are
not enemies. Instead, he uses the genocide ideology against us. The genocide
took place 16 years ago and now is the time for democracy.”
Kagame told a recent news conference that Ingabire had "gone too far in
abusing the country’s goodwill in attempting to destroy [Rwanda’s] positive
steps", but "whoever tries to act in contradiction to what the laws say will
not be given room".
Meanwhile, there are concerns about Kagame’s relations with the media after
he publicly accused unnamed journalists of conspiring with two former
military officers he accused of carrying out two recent grenade attacks in
the capital.
“Kagame’s televised warnings will help silence critics prior to the August
presidential election," wrote Tom Rhodes, Africa programme coordinator of
the Committee to Protect Journalists, on the organization’s website.
“With pro-government media outlets outweighing the country’s beleaguered
private press, the chances of balanced election coverage are now slimmer
than ever,” he added.
Chatham House’s Cargill said Rwanda's past had to be put in context. "There
are clearly some authoritarian tendencies within the Rwandan state, but
Rwanda is coming from a place few countries have to been in recent years,"
he told IRIN. "Still, there is a need for balance because the government is
using all the advantages of incumbency."
eo/am/mw
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