From: Berhane Habtemariam (Berhane.Habtemariam@gmx.de)
Date: Sun Mar 21 2010 - 07:10:30 EST
Doubts grow on Somali offensive's chances at peace
By JASON STRAZIUSO and KATHARINE HOURELD
The Associated Press
Saturday, March 20, 2010; 12:01 PM
NAIROBI, Kenya -- Problems including corrupt officials and a lack of
supplies have delayed Somalia's military offensive against Islamic
insurgents, but even before the first shot has been fired new warnings have
emerged that blood may be spilled for little or no gain.
In signs the offensive is approaching, close to 1,000 additional troops
arrived from Uganda last week to support the African Union's forces in
Mogadishu, and the Islamists have been digging trenches across the capital's
streets to impede AU armored cars. The AU backs the beleaguered Somali
government and has more than 5,000 troops stationed in the country.
But Somalia's government, whose forces are weak and poorly trained and
equipped, has not described how it would consolidate any gains made in the
offensive or win the support of the people, who are splintered into hundreds
of clans.
Experts say the government does not appear to have a political plan ready to
deploy after the end of the fighting, which is likely to kill scores of
civilians.
Foreshadowing a struggle just to take ground from al-Shabab, an Islamic
militia loosely linked with al-Qaida, a U.N. report this month said
Somalia's security forces lack resources, organization and a functional
chain of command, and blamed the problems on a lack of commitment by the
country's leaders.
The Somali government, for its part, says it is committed but needs more
international support, even though more than $180 million has been poured
into the country by the U.S. alone in the last three years.
As the commander in chief, President Sheik Sharif Sheik Ahmed would order
the start of the offensive. Ahmed told The Associated Press that efforts are
under way to professionalize and better equip the security forces, but the
government lacks money to pay the soldiers, many of whom have been trained
in neighboring Djibouti by the African Union.
U.S. officials in Washington say they have given money to help pay for
Somalia's soldiers, but declined to discuss how the money was delivered, to
whom, or how they could be sure it reached the fighters. A U.N. report said
the government's ability to pay soldiers is hindered by deep corruption.
The U.N. Monitoring Group of Somalia found that the Somali military is
dominated by a command structure based on clan loyalties and noted that
corruption has deprived soldiers of pay and meals and is so bad that Somali
commanders and troops often sell their arms and ammunition to militants.
"The consequences of these deficiencies include an inability of the security
forces of the Transitional Federal Government to take and hold ground," the
U.N. monitoring group said in its scathing analysis. "As a result, they have
made few durable military gains during the course of the mandate, and the
front line has remained, in at least one location, only 500 meters (yards)
from the presidency."
The offensive, which has been repeatedly delayed over the past few months,
is meant to push back insurgents who operate within just a few blocks of the
presidential palace and widen the government's small slice of Somalia's
capital, Mogadishu.
U.S. officials say the United States is not planning the offensive and won't
be coordinating or directing it. Johnnie Carson, America's assistant
secretary of state for Africa, said last week that the U.S. has only
"provided limited military support" to Somali government.
The U.S. recognizes the Somali government's need to defend itself from
al-Shabab. However, the U.S. is encouraging the Somali government to think
about what it will do after the battles are over, said a State Department
official who spoke on condition of anonymity because of departmental policy.
Col. Aden Ibrahim Kalmoy, Somalia's military spokesman, insisted that the
government does have a post-offensive security plan but would not reveal any
details. He said Somali government forces are "committed to an inevitable
war until they eradicate the terrorists from all Somali territory."
Nairobi-based analyst E.J. Hogendoorn of the International Crisis Group said
the long-term success of the offensive requires a political strategy and
that a military solution cannot be imposed on Somalia.
"We're not aware of any plan that would suggest the government has any
strategy into which this offensive fits," he said.
Al-Shabab insurgents may melt away before superior firepower and if Ahmed
reaches out to different powerbrokers and cut deals, the offensive may do
some good. But Roland Marchal, a Somalia expert at the Center for
International Studies and Research in Paris, said militants can wait for
government troops to either start selling their ammunition or simply defect
because they're not being paid or given food.
Former U.S. Deputy National Security Adviser Juan Zarate said that unless
the government can regain momentum and strengthen its bargaining position,
al-Shabab and other Islamist groups will continue to control large swaths of
Somalia.
Associated Press Writer Mohamed Olad Hassan contributed to this report from
Mogadishu, Somalia.
<javascript:void(popitup('http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/photo
/2010/03/20/PH2010032001309.html',650,850))> In this Monday Oct. 5 2009
photo newly trained Al-Shabaab fighters
patrol a street in Mogadishu, Somalia. Al-Shabaab which is a powerful
insurgent group is engaging a fight against the Somalia government, and the
African Union peace keepers. Problems including corrupt officials and a lack
of supplies have delayed Somalia's military offensive against
Islamic insurgents, but even before the first shot has been fired new
warnings have emerged that blood may be spilled for little or no gain. (AP
Photo/Mohamed Sheikh Nor)
In this Monday Oct. 5 2009 photo newly trained Al-Shabaab fighters patrol a
street in Mogadishu, Somalia. Al-Shabaab which is a powerful insurgent group
is engaging a fight against the Somalia government, and the African Union
peace keepers. Problems including corrupt officials and a lack of supplies
have delayed Somalia's military offensive against Islamic insurgents, but
even before the first shot has been fired new warnings have emerged that
blood may be spilled for little or no gain. (AP Photo/Mohamed Sheikh Nor)
(Mohamed Sheikh Nor - AP)
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