From: Berhane Habtemariam (Berhane.Habtemariam@gmx.de)
Date: Thu Apr 01 2010 - 16:11:33 EST
Speculation Swirls Around Withdrawal of Sudanese Opposition Party from
Elections
Joe DeCapua 01 April 2010
Related Links
*
<http://www1.voanews.com/english/news/special-reports/Sudan-Elections-in-Foc
us-86961342.html?adsfh> Sudan Elections in Focus: VOA Special Report
There may be much going on behind the scenes in Sudan after the withdrawal
of an opposition candidate from this month's elections. Yasir Arman of the
Sudan People's Liberation Movement (SPLM) has dropped out of the poll, which
is scheduled to begin April 11th. The SPLM blames it on electoral
irregularities and the continued conflict in Darfur.
Is there more to it?
"I think that at the moment everyone is speculating as to exactly what the
SPLM was thinking when they decided to do this," says E.J. Hogendoorn,
director of the Horn of Africa Project for the International Crisis Group.
There's talk of a backroom deal between the ruling National Congress Party
(NCP) and the SPLM, he says -- a deal that reportedly called for the
withdrawal of Arman in exchange for concessions relating to the 2011
referendum. That vote will determine whether south Sudan breaks away from
the north.
"There are a number of issues that are still pending," says Hogendoorn.
"One is the demarcation of the so-called 1956 border, which would be the
border for the two countries were they to separate."
Other issues, he says, include the sharing of oil revenues and rights of
citizens. These and other matters would need to be settled "for the
referendum process to go forward easily."
Effect on elections
"Our position has always been that the elections were manipulated by the NCP
over the last couple of years to ensure an NCP victory. So, in that
respect, it doesn't really change the election outcome. What it does do, if
in fact this is the end of the story.is that it presents this very
significant challenge to the northern opposition parties, who had
essentially needed the SPLM to organize a united front against the NCP," he
says.
Effect on referendum
There are two different end games at play, says Hogendoorn.
"One is the NCP wants the elections, because it wants to re-legitimize
Bashir and it wants to remain in power in Khartoum."
Bashir's image has been tarnished by International Criminal Court (ICC)
arrest warrants accusing him of war crimes and crimes against humanity in
Darfur in western Sudan.
"Our understanding is that if he is to be re-elected that would increase his
position vis-a-vie the ICC and pressure from the international community,"
he says.
The SPLM wants something else - a referendum in January.
He says the SPLM "basically sees the elections as just another point on the
road to the self-determination referendum. So the South, to some degree, is
focused still on the referendum, whereas the NCP is focused on these
elections. And to some degree that is what's driving the political
calculations."
The referendum is not a long-term issue, says the International Crisis Group
analyst.
"Long-term is a misstatement. This is nine months away. So for the SPLM and
the south, the clock is really ticking. This is also one reason why they
have resisted calls to postpone the elections. Because their fear was that
were the elections to be postponed in order to improve the conditions for
them, that could impact the scheduling of the referendum," he says.
Fear of renewed conflict
In 2005, north and south Sudan signed the Comprehensive Peace Agreement
(CPA), which ended a long civil war. But ever since then, many groups and
analysts have warned of problems in fully implementing the CPA.
"We are very, very concerned about the possibility of reviewed conflict,"
says Hogendoorn.
"A number of our latest reports have highlighted the fact that there are a
number of very contentious issues that need to be resolved before the
referendum to ensure that it's held on time. At the same time, the
elections themselves are also fraught with all kinds of problems. And, yes,
the situation is very tense at the moment."
And then there's Darfur
Much of the attention on this month's elections has been focused on
developments in the south. But Hogendoorn says the elections in Darfur are
"quite problematic."
The International Crisis Group recently issued a report on Darfur.
"The elections have been rigged in Darfur," he says. "And what will happen
if the elections occur is that that will basically entrench NCP dominance of
the region."
Hogendoorn describes the situation in Sudan as very, very fluid.
"Things are changing daily, if not hourly," he says, "and we hope the
international community pays attention."
US Envoy Meets Sudan Opposition for Talks After Election Pullout
VOA News 01 April 2010
The U.S. envoy to Sudan, Scott Gration, is holding talks with political
leaders in Khartoum in an effort to save the credibility of this month's
elections.
The talks began Thursday, a day after Yasir Arman, the presidential
candidate of southern Sudan's dominant party, withdrew from the polls.
Arman and officials from the former rebel Sudan People's Liberation Movement
said the move is necessary because of electoral irregularities and continued
conflict in Darfur.
The SPLM is part of a fragile coalition government led by the National
Congress Party of President Omar al-Bashir. Arman was seen as one of the
favorites to challenge Mr. Bashir in voting that begins April 11.
The SPLM says it will still contest regional and legislative elections
across Sudan, but not in Darfur.
In a joint statement Wednesday, the United States, Britain and Norway voiced
concern about restrictions on political freedoms in Sudan, and called for a
credible and peaceful vote to take place.
On Tuesday, the International Crisis Group accused Sudan's ruling National
Congress Party of trying to rig the elections.
The conflict prevention group says the NCP has drafted election laws in its
favor. It also says President Bashir's party has "bought tribal loyalties"
and used flawed census results to draft electoral districts.
The Brussels-based group was especially critical of the electoral process in
Darfur. It said the ruling party went to great lengths to count its
supporters in Darfur in the 2008 census but made little effort to include
the nearly 2.6 million people who have been internally displaced by the
region's ongoing conflict.
The Darfuri vote is critical because nearly 20 percent of Sudan's citizens
live in the region. Darfur also holds 86 of the 450 seats in the national
assembly.
The vote will be Sudan's first multi-party elections since 1986 and it is a
key part of a 2005 peace deal that ended the country's north-south civil
war.
On Monday, President Bashir said if former southern rebels boycott the
elections, the Sudanese government will not allow the south to hold a
planned referendum on becoming independent.
----[This List to be used for Eritrea Related News Only]----