From: Tsegai Emmanuel (emmanuelt40@gmail.com)
Date: Tue Apr 27 2010 - 11:19:02 EDT
Somalia: An Ethiopian General in Mogadishu?
April 20, 2010 | 2025 GMT
[image: Somalia: An Ethiopian General in Mogadishu?]
MUSTAFA HAJI ABDINUR/AFP/Getty Images
A Somali government soldier during a firefight with Islamist militants in
Mogadishu on March 23
Summary
The Ethiopian general who led the 2006 invasion of Somalia is rumored to be
in Mogadishu for talks with top officials from the Somali Transitional
Federal Government (TFG). Ethiopia has been working for months to help forge
a deal between the TFG and Somali Islamist militia Ahlu Sunnah Waljamaah to
form a force to fight against Somali jihadist group al Shabaab. With the
deal effectively sealed, news that the general is in Mogadishu — if true —
would represent a sign that the momentum is building toward an offensive
against al Shabaab.
Analysis
An April 19 media report from the semi-autonomous Somali region of Puntland
said the general who led the 2006 Ethiopian invasion of Somalia has secretly
entered Mogadishu for talks with top officials in Somalia’s Transitional
Federal Government (TFG). STRATFOR sources are attempting to confirm the
authenticity of the report, which came from a region not known for its
support of the current Somali president.
It has been known for months that Ethiopia has been quietly working to
facilitate an alliance between the TFG and Somali Islamist militia Ahlu
Sunnah Waljamaah (ASWJ), a pairing Addis Ababa hopes can take the lead in
any future offensive against Somali jihadist group al Shabaab. If the report
of the high-level contacts inside the Somali capital is true, it is simply
the latest sign that the momentum is building toward a possible coordinated
effort by TFG and ASWJ forces to expel al Shabaab from Mogadishu and that
Addis Ababa is playing a direct role in making it happen.
Ethiopia invaded Somalia in December
2006<http://www.stratfor.com/geopolitical_diary_open_warfare_somalia?fn=95rss72>to
expel the Islamic Courts Union (ICU), a jihadist group that had been
in
control of much of the southern and central parts of the country, including
Mogadishu, since the previous
June<http://www.stratfor.com/geopolitical_diary_dilemma_mogadishu?fn=93rss58>(and
whose leadership ironically included current Somali President Sharif
Ahmed). Ethiopian forces then occupied Somalia until January
2009<http://www.stratfor.com/analysis/20090113_somalia_strategy_behind_ethiopian_pullback?fn=77rss97>,
at which point they withdrew, tiring of incessant guerrilla attacks by a
former branch of the then-dissolved ICU known as al Shabaab. With its
military out of the country, Addis Ababa immediately established ASWJ’s
armed wing and has supported it with money and weapons ever since as a lever
in central Somalia, while it has supported the TFG as a way of maintaining
influence in Mogadishu.
To this day, Ethiopian troops frequently cross the border into Somalia to
pursue rebels, whether linked to al Shabaab, Ethiopian separatist
movement Ogaden
National Liberation Front
(ONLF)<http://www.stratfor.com/ethiopia_zenawi_confronts_ogaden_provocation?fn=59rss89>,
or other groups. However, it is unlikely they intend to reoccupy the country
in the near future.
Rather, the Ethiopian government has focused its energy on facilitating a
military alliance between ASWJ and the TFG as a means of countering the
threat posed by al Shabaab, which controls much more Somali territory than
either the government or ASWJ. Ethiopia has hosted multiple rounds of
power-sharing
talks<http://www.stratfor.com/sitrep/20100217_brief_power_sharing_somalia?fn=79rss87>between
leaders from the two groups, which have led to a nearly
finalized deal<http://www.stratfor.com/analysis/20100315_somalia_tfg_makes_deal?fn=43rss99>.
The TFG recently granted ASWJ administrative control of a portion of
Mogadishu<http://www.stratfor.com/analysis/20100419_brief_kenya_joins_somalia_against_al_shabaab?fn=94rss55>,
and the group’s spokesman said April 19 that ASWJ is now ready to go to war
with al Shabaab to drive the jihadists out of the capital. This is
significant, as the TFG does not possess the requisite military
capability<http://www.stratfor.com/analysis/20100405_somalia_tfgs_limitations?fn=11rss69>to
do so on its own.
Added to all of this is the report that the same man who led the Ethiopian
invasion in 2006 is secretly back in Somalia, with three other top Ethiopian
commanders in tow, meeting with top TFG officials and coordinating plans for
a long-awaited offensive<http://www.stratfor.com/analysis/20100414_somalia_wait_continues_mogadishu?fn=47rss21>against
al Shabaab. Considering the influence Addis Ababa has over the
Somali government — and ASWJ, moreover — such a meeting would be a
significant sign that momentum is building. The report, however, is
unverified and could be propaganda aimed at tarnishing Ahmed’s credibility
in the eyes of the Somali public. It was published by a media outlet in
Puntland, home to former TFG President Abdullahi
Yusuf<http://www.stratfor.com/analysis/20081229_somalia_yusufs_resignation_and_possibility_peace_deal?fn=33rss53>and
an area known for having negative views of Ahmed, a member
of a rival clan<http://www.stratfor.com/analysis/20090202_somalia_moderate_islamist_takes_power_struggle_continues?fn=44rss97>.
Many Somalis who oppose al Shabaab are equally (if not more) resentful of
Ethiopia, Somalia’s historic enemy and recent occupier, and propagating the
idea that Ahmed is collaborating with the Ethiopian military would cast him
in a bad light.
What is known, however, is that the TFG and ASWJ are actively planning a
fight with al Shabaab, and that Addis Ababa is supporting the tandem.
Whether the jihadist group will stand and fight in a pitched battle against
a force unlikely to match the strength of the Ethiopian military remains to
be seen. Al Shabaab traditionally employs guerrilla tactics, but it is in
firm control of several Mogadishu neighborhoods.
A less critical issue in regards to the imminence of an offensive in the
Somali capital is related to the ethnic Somali troops being trained by
neighboring countries, particularly Kenya. Kenya and Ethiopia reportedly
disagree on where the some 2,500 troops being trained in northern Kenya
should deploy. Kenya wants these troops to act as a buffer concentrated in
the coastal area of the Kenyan-Somali border, but according to STRATFOR
sources, Ethiopia has concerns about letting them operate in southern
Somalia due to the possibility that they may link up with ONLF rebels, with
whom they share close ethnic ties. Ultimately, though, it is the TFG-ASWJ
axis that will likely serve as the catalyst for an offensive against al
Shabaab, with the prospect of direct involvement by the Ethiopian military —
such as was seen in 2006 — unlikely.
<https://www.stratfor.com/user/reset/529524/1272380364/fa7fd3e0685e82f16b4526a4c8e43d81>
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