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From: wolda002@umn.edu
Date: Sat Jan 29 2011 - 02:22:16 EST
Be careful what you wish for in Arab world
By Anthony Cordesman
Published: January 27 2011 22:02 | Last updated: January 27 2011 22:02
The unrest in Egypt, Tunisia and Yemen <http://www.ft.com/arabprotests>– and
indeed, the governing turmoil in Iraq – highlight a critical problem in how
the west deals with fractured and failing states. To date, there has been
too much focus on demonstrations and too little on the fact that changes in
regimes that do not deal with the underlying causes of the protests are
simply going to substitute one form of failed regime for another.
The very failures that have suddenly unleashed such passion have left much
of the Arab world without the kind of political parties and leaders that can
work together and bridge sectarian and tribal differences. They have also
prompted uprisings whose voices know what they are against but are not so
sure what they are for. Egypt’s
opposition<http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/7aa8d912-2a44-11e0-b906-00144feab49a.html>is
fractured and inexperienced. The Muslim Brotherhood is the strongest
political alternative, but is weak and more ideological than practical. It
is far from clear that removing President Hosni
Mubarak<http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/122aa98c-2a77-11e0-804a-00144feab49a.html#axzz1CHTOesyp>,
or holding elections, can produce a new government that can meet the
expectations of demonstrators. They want real jobs, an end to corruption,
fair income distribution, and police and rule of law that serves the people
and not the regime.
These Arab states have young and growing populations. All lack the
employment and job creation to serve their people. All have infrastructures
that cannot meet popular needs. All have failed to shape their economies in
ways that translate growth – to the extent it takes place – into equitable
income distribution. All have relied too much on their internal security
services. All have failed to address the causes of internal violence,
extremism and terrorism. All have distorted their budgets and economies by a
focus on security at the expense of governance.
The opposition in these countries is unprepared for the task in hand. If in
power, all will have major problems in using aid effectively, and not
wasting it in corruption and mismanagement. All will need help in shaping
budgets with the right priorities, in finding the proper balance between the
public and private sectors, and in reallocating money more effectively and
equitably to meet local and regional needs.
The US and Europe need to focus on helping them meet these challenges. They
need to stop focusing on democracy, human rights and the rule of law, as if
repressive states without effective governance could suddenly become mirror
images of the west.
Moreover, making empty calls for stability and then having sudden shifts in
policy to support regime change is scarcely a convincing way to persuade the
peoples of such states that the west really cares about their future.
What is needed is more sustained US and European support to help strengthen
governance – both in existing and new regimes. The west must set up
programmes to help states develop their economies in ways that meet popular
expectations and needs, and not simply provide macroeconomic growth or
project aid.
It has also to look beyond a narrow focus on central government. Focusing on
central government and its politics can – as US aid efforts in Iraq
<http://www.ft.com/world/mideast/iraq>and Afghanistan
<http://www.ft.com/world/asiapacific/afghanistan>have shown all too clearly
– do little or nothing towards creating effective local and regional
government; nor does this engender popular faith in the government.
For Europe, such efforts will be vital in dealing with the stability of
North Africa, and the pressures that drive legal and illegal
immigrants<http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/42f5934c-1834-11e0-88c9-00144feab49a.html>across
the Mediterranean. For the US, they are critical in containing Iran
and ensuring that Egypt and Jordan will underpin an Arab-Israeli peace.
If the US is to lead such efforts it must make fundamental changes in the
way the military and counterterrorism forces, and the State Department and
USAID, as well as Congress, analyse and implement policies, wars and aid
efforts. America now focuses too much on rhetoric about democracy and
elections, legislating human rights, creating new constitutions and formal
top-down approaches to the rule of law.
So far, little in America’s record in Iraq and Yemen is reassuring as a
precedent for its policies towards the latest upheavals in the Arab world.
Sadly, the US shows little sign of being ready to deal with the truly
critical problem of Egypt, or take preventive action to help other friendly
Arab regimes adopt a more peaceful approach to reform and change.
*The writer holds the Burke Chair in Strategy at the Center for Strategic
and International Studies, and has worked extensively on security,
governance, and economic reform in the Middle East*
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