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From: Biniam Tekle (biniamt@dehai.org)
Date: Thu Feb 24 2011 - 12:28:58 EST
Wee but worrisome
http://www.economist.com/node/18233712?story_id=18233712&fsrc=rss Foreigners
fear for influence and access in a tiny African country Djibouti's troubles
Feb 24th 2011 | NAIROBI | from the print edition
WITH only 860,000 souls, Djibouti is a miniature state in a big, bad
neighbourhood. Yet the country is vital for the arid region around the Horn
of Africa. Its port is a lifeline for its giant neighbour, Ethiopia, which
is hemmed in by Somalia and lost its access to the sea when Eritrea became
independent in 1993. France keeps the 13th demi-brigade of the Foreign
Legion there—about 2,600 troops and airmen. And over the past decade,
America has set up counter-terrorism and counter-piracy bases with 2,200 men
and women.
Most foreigners are warmly welcomed by President Ismail Guelleh, who is
conspicuously seeking to model his country on Dubai. He came to power in
1999 and his People’s Rally for Progress has ruled Djibouti since
independence from France in 1977. On billboards in the capital, Djibouti
Ville, he declares, “*nous croyons*” (we believe). Increasingly, the
president seems to believe in his own abilities. He changed the constitution
last year to allow himself at least six more years. Elections are due in
April.
Djibouti’s fractured opposition was buoyed by the revolutions in Tunisia and
Egypt as well as the protests across the Red Sea in Yemen. On February 18th
it demonstrated against the government’s grasping ways, hoping to exert
pressure on Mr Guelleh to level the playing field before the election. But a
peaceful protest turned nasty after police arrived. At least two people died
and opposition leaders were briefly imprisoned.
If protests got more serious and the port shut down, Ethiopia might be
tempted to invade. The French would probably beat them to it though. That
would make the small state even more brittle.
Djibouti is ethnically Somali and it serves as a refuge for Somali money,
intellectuals and clan leaders fleeing their capital, Mogadishu. Ethiopia is
said to run a network of spies. Somaliland, another neighbour, has
increasingly close trade links with Djibouti. Relations with Eritrea, on the
other side, are tetchy. The two countries have a border dispute.
The pressing question on the minds of outsiders is whether they should
continue to back Mr Guelleh or allow history to take its course. It is not
clear to what extent the events in North African countries are affecting the
rest of the continent. But it is perhaps telling that, in addition to
Djibouti, Arab-influenced Sudan has had to bow to demands for greater
accountability. Its president, Omar al-Bashir, announced this week that he
would not stand for re-election. But after more than two decades in power,
Mr Bashir might find it all too easy to renege on his pledge.
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