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From: wolda002@umn.edu
Date: Sun Mar 20 2011 - 00:59:22 EST
Published on *The National Interest* (http://nationalinterest.org)
*Source URL (retrieved on Mar 20, 2011):*
http://nationalinterest.org/commentary/another-war-choice-5043
------------------------------
Another War of Choice
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March 18, 2011
Ted Galen Carpenter<http://nationalinterest.org/profile/ted-galen-carpenter>
[2]
Given the UN Security Council resolution authorizing the use of all
appropriate measures against Muammar Qaddafi’s forces, it is now probable
that the United States and its NATO allies (possibly with token commitments
from some members of the Arab League) will initiate a military intervention
in Libya at some point. The hasty cease-fire that the Qaddafi government
announced following passage of the resolution is not likely to alter that
policy trajectory for long.
Trenchant critics
have<http://www.nationalreview.com/corner/262377/nro-libya-editorial-i-respectfully-dissent-andrew-c-mccarthy>
[3] presented<http://nationaljournal.com/columns/vantage-point/the-costs-of-intervention-in-libya-20110310>
[4] numerous<http://www.cato-at-liberty.org/president-obamas-rhetoric-on-libya/>
[5] valid<http://blogs.forbes.com/dougbandow/2011/03/14/libya-another-unnecessary-war-of-choice/>
[6] objections<http://www.nytimes.com/2011/03/14/opinion/14douthat.html?_r=1&adxnnl=1&ref=rossdouthat&adxnnlx=1300456841-FvXI0nY7kg6mGZUH8RKupQ>
[7] to a Western intervention, starting with pointing out the absurdity of
President Obama’s assertion that the events in that country pose an “unusual
and severe” threat to America’s security and interests. The reality is that
it would be hard to find a situation that is less relevant to America’s
genuine interests. Libya is a small country with little political or
strategic impact beyond its borders. And Qaddafi, despite his many odious
qualities, gave up both his involvement with terrorist ventures and his
embryonic nuclear program years ago. Although the country is a mid-sized oil
producer, instability there has had only a modest impact on global oil
markets. There is neither a strategic nor an economic justification for a
U.S.-led military crusade.
Other advocates of caution have warned that even the imposition of a no-fly
zone—to say nothing of the more robust, and highly probable, option of air
strikes on Libyan military
targets—could<http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2011/03/08/AR2011030803149.html>
[8] lead <http://www.cato.org/pub_display.php?pub_id=12849> [9] to a much
deeper and protracted mission. Finally, opponents of America’s new looming
war note that the United States is already overcommitted, both
militarily<http://www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/gen-wesley-clark-has-rules-for-us-interventions-libya-doesnt-meet-them/2011/03/09/ABu5jrQ_story.html>
[10] and financially <http://www.cato.org/pub_display.php?pub_id=12885> [11],
in such places as Iraq and Afghanistan. A nation running a $1.5 trillion
federal budget deficit this year should not be looking for new ways to spend
money—especially on yet another unnecessary “war of choice.”
But there are also less obvious traps lurking for the United States and its
allies in a Libyan intervention. One is that even well-intentioned
interference on behalf of the rebels is likely to raise suspicions in that
country and throughout much of the Muslim world that Washington is trying to
hijack the Libyan uprising for its own
purposes<http://www.cato.org/pub_display.php?pub_id=12841>
[12]. Given America’s woeful reputation among Muslim
populations<http://www.cato.org/pub_display.php?pub_id=12780>
[13], such accusations are inevitable and are likely to be believed.
Although the Arab League’s endorsement of a no-fly zone may marginally
mitigate those suspicions, it will not eliminate them. Indeed, the “Arab
street” tends to regard many of the regimes represented in the Arab League
as little more than Washington’s stooges. Allegations of American
imperialism and European neocolonialism will not be long in coming once the
intervention takes place. That miasma will linger even if the Western powers
manage to keep their commitment not to put boots on the ground in this
mission—a degree of restraint that is by no means certain.
Finally, the United States and its allies are wandering into a murky
political and demographic minefield in Libya. Western media and policy types
have a fuzzy image of the rebels as brave, democratic insurgents determined
to liberate the country from a brutal tyrant. But there are other, perhaps
far more important, elements involved. Libya itself is yet another fragile,
artificial political entity that the European colonial powers created. Italy
cobbled together three disparate provinces to establish its Libyan colony.
Those areas consisted of Cyrenaica in the east (centered aroundon the cities
of Benghazi and Tobruk), Tripolitania in the west (centered around Tripoli,
which became the colonial capital), and less populous and less important
Fezzan in the south-southwest.
The key point is that the various tribes inhabiting Cyrenaica and
Tripolitania had almost nothing in common. Indeed, they sometimes had an
adversarial relationship. Yet, when the victorious Allied powers took
control of Libya from Italy during and after World War II, they maintained
this unstable amalgam instead of separating it into its more cohesive
constituent parts.
That is not merely a matter of historical interest. The sharp divide between
Cyrenaica and Tripolitania persisted after Libya became independent, and it
persists to this day. It is no coincidence that the current uprising against
the Qaddafi regime began in the east, with rebel forces quickly seizing
Benghazi and other cities in Cyrenaica. Virtually all previous
(unsuccessful) anti-regime movements began in the same region. Qaddafi is
from Tripolitania and has long depended on western tribes and his
western-dominated security forces as his power base. And as easily as rebel
demonstrators and troops seized major targets in the east, they predictably
faltered as they pressed deeper into Tripolitania.
The agenda of the rebels remains uncertain, but the two leading
possibilities both pose major problems for the United States and its allies
as they launch their intervention. One possibility is that insurgent leaders
want to keep Libya intact and simply reverse the power relationship with
their Tripolitanian adversaries. In other words, a victory over the Qaddafi
regime would be time for payback. The other possibility is that they wish to
split the country and secure independence for Cyrenaica. There is historical
precedent for such an objective. Libya’s monarch, King Idris, told the
United States and the other Allied powers after World War II that he wished
to rule only Cyrenaica, because he thought that trying to control the larger
amalgam would be too difficult and lead to dangerous
instability<http://www.nydailynews.com/opinions/2011/03/13/2011-03-13_libyas_fractured_future_turmoil_is_nothing_compared_to_the_chaos_that_will_follo.html>
[14].
Bush administration leaders greatly underestimated the depth of the
divisions among Sunni Arabs, Shiite Arabs and Kurds in Iraq, and that
blunder contributed greatly to Washington’s headaches in that country. The
Obama administration may be poised to make a similar blunder in Libya.
Assisting the Cyrenaica-based rebels to oust Qaddafi will almost certainly
provoke resentment from the people of Tripolitania. If the rebels split the
country, that will become a focal point of resentment for those defeated
tribes—and a new grievance against the West throughout much of the Muslim
world. Even if the rebels attempt to keep Libya intact, the Tripolitanians
are bound to resent Washington for their new, subordinate status. Either
way, the United States and its allies are in danger of stumbling into a
situation in which they are almost certain to acquire new enemies. That is
the last thing that America needs.
More by
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*Source URL (retrieved on Mar 20, 2011):*
http://nationalinterest.org/commentary/another-war-choice-5043
*Links:*
[1] http://www.addthis.com/bookmark.php?v=250&username=nationalinterest
[2] http://nationalinterest.org/profile/ted-galen-carpenter
[3]
http://www.nationalreview.com/corner/262377/nro-libya-editorial-i-respectfully-dissent-andrew-c-mccarthy
[4]
http://nationaljournal.com/columns/vantage-point/the-costs-of-intervention-in-libya-20110310
[5] http://www.cato-at-liberty.org/president-obamas-rhetoric-on-libya/
[6]
http://blogs.forbes.com/dougbandow/2011/03/14/libya-another-unnecessary-war-of-choice/
[7]
http://www.nytimes.com/2011/03/14/opinion/14douthat.html?_r=1&adxnnl=1&ref=rossdouthat&adxnnlx=1300456841-FvXI0nY7kg6mGZUH8RKupQ
[8]
http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2011/03/08/AR2011030803149.html
[9] http://www.cato.org/pub_display.php?pub_id=12849
[10]
http://www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/gen-wesley-clark-has-rules-for-us-interventions-libya-doesnt-meet-them/2011/03/09/ABu5jrQ_story.html
[11] http://www.cato.org/pub_display.php?pub_id=12885
[12] http://www.cato.org/pub_display.php?pub_id=12841
[13] http://www.cato.org/pub_display.php?pub_id=12780
[14]
http://www.nydailynews.com/opinions/2011/03/13/2011-03-13_libyas_fractured_future_turmoil_is_nothing_compared_to_the_chaos_that_will_follo.html
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