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From: Alula Afework (alula_afework@hotmail.com)
Date: Wed Apr 06 2011 - 09:36:23 EDT
Ethiopian Government New Policy Shift toward Eritrea
By Alula Afewerki
April 5, 2011
Over the past few weeks, we have heard in different media outlet, the news of what Ethiopian Prime minster said in an interview to supposedly an Eritrean opposition radio. Somewhere in the interview the prime minster indicates a policy shift from no peace no war, to taking a preemptive strike and attempting to change a regime in Asmara. On this article I want to address why, of all time the Prime-minster chose to echo a sound of war. Is he just bluffing or something we should take seriously, and how we should react to such news, also is there any lesson we can learn from pervious rhetoric from this regime or any parallels we can draw and last but not least if the current wave of anti-dictators demonstrations that is swiping north African countries has any bearing on the issue.
The first question that comes to mind is, why now? What has changed in the doing or undoing of the Eritrean government in its dealing with the Ethiopian government that prompt the prime minster to state a change in policy? Before I even discuss that, a change in policy of this magnitude, shouldn’t it be presented to Ethiopian people either through the parliament if there is an effective parliament that is, as we are told, democratically elected parliament exist in Ethiopia, or even on a press conference directly by the prime minster addressing the people. To tell the Ethiopian people of such major policy shift, indirectly through an Eritrean opposition radio seems a bit strange to say the least. It is almost as if the government does not care what the people and the parliament thinks as far as this issue. May be its intended audience are not the Ethiopian people. Though if the policy were to be carried out, it would directly or indirectly affects every single Ethiopian lives.
So it is rather interesting why the prime-minster chose to first bring this issue via an interview with Eritrean opposition radio. To me this makes me believe that this is another rhetoric that was not well planned and as usual coming from the prime-minster’s mouth before even discussing with his cabinet. And after the oops, comes the cover up to make it look like it was a policy shift on the part of the government, I say that because after the interview, the next couple of days we heard from the Ethiopian foreign department talking or echoing the same statement in support of the prime-minster. Though the interview was riddled with conflicting stories, where in one part the prime-minster talks of his love for Eritrea and his unwavering support of the independence and some sacrifice made by his party to such accord, and his desire for future peace with the people even with the government of Eritrea. But as always he comes short from saying or doing what is right to reach to that peaceful place he says he wants to get. Always he puts a precondition to peace by changing the conditions. I remember of this old adage I heard, “the change of plate will not make the food test any better”. The prime-minster tells us in different times what this preconditions are, first we heard, he was all for peace and he has accepted the final and binding nature of the border issue under what he called a 5 point plan, and only through that plan was peace to be realized. When the Eritrean government ignored and refused his 5 point plan rightly so if I may add, since there were no legal basis what so ever to have any 5 or 10 point plan, the regime in Addis started to tell us, now they have finally accepted the plan they just wanted some dialogue, almost in a Hollywood fashion, the prime minster dramatized the situation by telling us, if we were to accept the peace plan as stated and demarcation ensued, then some homes will be split in halves and it will be such a tragic to these people, and he vilified and attempted to make the Eritrean government was reckless and acting like an evil groups that didn’t care about the homes being split in halves, basically this time he made it look like as if the prime-minster was holding the peace hostage on behalf of the few homes that he said were going to be split, and in good conscious he just couldn’t go with it. What is interesting is, the Eritrean government or any official from the government has never made such a callus claim or a desire to see homes split in halves, or blindly ever wanted to just put a line through the border by bulldozing peoples home. To this days, the Ethiopian government has never shown any evidence of any actual home that actually lies right on the center of the demarcating lines, where the demarcation would split them in half. Nevertheless the Ethiopian government continues to make such irrational and false claims. Contrary to this, the Eritrean government has shown over the years to be not only responsible but a government committed to the welfare of the poor regardless they be Eritreans or any other people. And it is unthinkable and uncharacteristic of the Eritrean government to do any different if the chances were given to demarcate that they will do it without sensitivity and rationality on the ground. Again if I can fast forward in time, because the Eritrean government knew, the regime in Addis was not serious about peace, and also because there were no legal basis for any pre-condition negotiations before demarcation, it made its point very clear from the outset and thus again rightly so, they refused any form of negotiations as a form of precondition to demarcation. And when this strategies didn’t work for the Regime in Addis, changing the tune of their song, they started to tell us, now they don’t care if the house split not two ways but according to the prime minster three ways, but he tells us, it is not the house split that he cares about, but a promise on the part of the Eritrean government to normalize relations with his government. And if this precondition is met, then he will abide by commission’s ruling to demarcate as if he is doing us a favor. The fact is, it is his responsibility to shoulder his obligation and carry out the demands of international law. He fails to address or attempt to cover up his illegal occupation of Eritrean legitimate land by force. His absurd rational to withdrawing from Eritrean undisputed legal territory is, he could withdraw and demarcate but if Eritrea is not willing to normalize what is the point. One thing is very clear; the prime-minster is consistently inconsistent time and time again. His stories are always changing, but one thing that he is consistent on is on failing to meet the final and binding ruling of the court. Here what people must realize is, these are two different and distinct issues, nowhere in allergies agreement or the commission’s final and binding rule does it states; one party must be willing to normalize any ties with the other in order to accept and comply with the ruling. First and foremost before we even go to the larger issue of normalization, one has to show commitment on the ground, that they are ready for peace, and that they can follow, accept and abide by the rule of law. The Eritrean government to this accord has shown, not only restraint, but respect to the rule of law, by accepting this final ruling from the outset, and continue to this date, their commitment to this ruling to the letter. If the regime in Addis was committed to peace with the Eritrean people, first and foremost, it should withdraw from the occupied territories, then come to the demarcation table, once this part is done and done successfully, should the Eritrean government refuse to normalize though it has the right to do so, may be then the cries and allegations of prime-minster might have some ground. But to accuse the law abiding government of Eritrea of destabilizing his country or other neighboring country, when in fact it is His government that has been actively engaged in destabilizing his neighboring Somalia and also who is in direct conflict with the rule of law and trans passing and illegally occupying sovereign Eritrean territory, is simply unacceptable. No amount of sugar coating or saying good things to Eritrean people is going to get to the hearts and minds of Eritrean people. If the prime-minster genuinely cares for Eritrean people and wants to do right with us, the solution is very simple, no need for all this fanfare, just accept the rule of law, and we guaranty you, you will have your normalization after wards. But while illegally occupying ones country, the prime-minster is not in any legal or illegal position to tell the Eritrean government on how to proceed on this issue, the prime-mister has no moral high ground, to dictate or suggest any precondition on how to proceed for ward. What he needs to do is simply abide by the rule of law.
It is quite clear, the regime in Addis is feeling the pressure inside and to some extent from outside, and as the pressure mounts and the heat is getting hotter, the prime minster may attempt to divert the attention of the people of Ethiopia. After lying to the people for more than 20 years of the illusion of developmental growth his country has brought with double digit economy, the fact are contrary to this, over 90% of the Ethiopian population living under poverty, over 60% of school age children are not enrolled in school, lack of any meaningful health care program or healthcare facility to the vast sector of society. In every sector of growth, the country ranks below average against the world’s poorest average that is. In poverty index, Ethiopia ranks among the highest from the bottom up. With ever high rising and disappearing food and other commodities from the country, with absolute dissolution of any meaning full opposition party from the government, with tension between different tribes and religious groups rising. With vast sector of the arable land given away as a cheap commodity to foreign investors pennies on the dollar, while the dwellers and rightfully owners of the lands are being systematically being removed or killed from their ancestral homes. Here I just want to make a contrast to how the prime-minster appeared to have cared of homes being split in border area with Eritrea, but yet, in Gambella and other southern regions, the prime-minster is very busy bulldozing and burning peoples home and evicting them by force. So it is clear with all these pressures mounting on the government, we see an increasing paranoia of the government as evidence by recent arresting of over 200 opposition figures mostly from the Oromo tribes and clamping on the freedom of its citizen, it is understandable the dooms day of its end is reaching at a speed of light. Fear is mounting, and day to day meetings of government is occupied on how to mute the people and stop the freedom train that is swiping the north African countries from reaching Addis. But the eventual arrival of this train against the wishes of the Ethiopian government is inevitable, and it is this pressure that is driving the prime-minster to entertain the idea of war, with the peace loving and law abiding government and people of Eritrea.
I also like to throw in an idea that, as pressures mounts and the eventual failing of this government reaches, we have to be very cognizant of the fact, there is an article in the Ethiopian constitution, known as article number 39, which pretty much allows any group of people or part of a country may split from the larger Ethiopia should the group desires to do so, though in practice so far it has not been entertained, even in the face of a legitimate question by the Ogden people, the response they got from the government was a heavy handed genocide to their simple question of freedom. But we all know that article was only meant in the event the dooms day arrived, as it is arriving now, the group will attempt to apply it to the tigray province and attempt to create an independent state of tigray. To this accord over the past 20 years in their dream to create such a state, they have been redirecting most of the country’s wealth to development in tigrai region as well as redrawing the maps of the region, they have included fertile lands from Gondar and wolleo to be part of tigrai and it was also part of this dream that pushed them to go to war with Eritrea in the first place. Part of the border with Eritrea that the court later awarded to Eritrea, was all planned to be included in what they called abyi tigrai. Though the Eritrean government put an end to that fantasy on the north, their dream of independent tigrai has not completely died, and we have to consider this regime might attempt one more time, using the Ethiopian people as a canon fodder as it did in the last war with Eritrea, in a futile attempt to over throw the Eritrean government from power, and install one of the subservient Eritrean opposition groups that are stationed in Addis. Because the Prime-minster knows well an independent tigrai without a friendly Eritrea as its neighbor to the north will not survive a day. And since the Eritrean government under the leadership of Issayas Afewerki is clear on this issue, it does not see, the tigrai people different from the larger Ethiopian people and does not want to be part of this fantasy. The regime in Addis could have decided may be the option to attempt to over throw or change the regime in Asmara as its final and last option.
We cannot sit idle nor underestimate such reckless statement as diversionary alone and that this paranoid government won’t start another war. In its ill-advised position and miscalculation of the will and unity of the Eritrea people with their government, in addition to that with the long standing fantasy of creating abyi tigrai and the increasing pressure the prime-minster is under, it is quite possible that, he could attempt another round of war, as final way out or an attempt to doge the final bullet of his downfall. Though the strong and ever ready Eritrean defense force is more than ready and capable of defending any treat from the regime in Addis, and putting the last nail on the coffin over their fantasy of abay tigrai, there would be no justification for one single Eritrean blood to be shade, for the sole purpose of keeping the tyrant and despot of Addis in power one more day. The Ethiopian government must be aware that, Eritreans inside or outside their country are united when it comes to their sovereign country and will support their government till the end to defend their country from an outside enemy forces.
In conclusion, it is very clear, pressures are mounting in the Woyan’s camp, and their eventual downfall is reaching, contrary to their wish, the Eritrean government working day and night with their people, is making demonstrable economic and other progress in the face of and against all odds. Because the commitment to work rather than steal from their people, is the driving force of the Eritrean government. It will be in his best interest for the prime-minster to come to his senses and accept the rule of law, and withdraw his forces from the illegally occupied Eritrean territory, instead of entertaining any adventures that will only hasten his final and total demise from the face of reality and will throw him to the bin of history!!!!!
Long live Eritrea and her sprit!!!!
Awet ‘n hafash
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