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From: Biniam Tekle (biniamt@dehai.org)
Date: Thu Apr 21 2011 - 09:52:25 EDT
http://www.economist.com/node/18587195?story_id=18587195&fsrc=rss Apr 20th
2011 | ADDIS ABABA | from the print edition The River Nile
A dam nuisance
Egypt and Ethiopia quarrel over water
MOST of the water meandering down the lower reaches of the Nile, the world’s
longest river, comes from the Ethiopian highlands, putting rulers in Addis
Ababa, the capital, in a position of unusual power, one they have rarely
dared to exploit. But since Egypt, the biggest and most influential consumer
of Nile water, is distracted by revolutionary upheaval at home, this may be
changing. Ethiopia and the other upstream countries—Burundi, Congo, Kenya,
Rwanda, Tanzania and Uganda—have banded together to rewrite a 1959 treaty
that favours Egypt.
They may succeed. After decades of strong population growth, Ethiopia has
overtaken Egypt as Africa’s second-most-numerous nation. The total
population of the upstream countries is 240m against 130m for the downstream
duo of Egypt (85m) and Sudan (45m), whose 14m southerners will soon be
independent and are being courted by both sides.
Ethiopia’s prime minister, Meles Zenawi, is determined to dam his bit of the
Nile. On April 2nd he laid the foundation for the Grand Millennium Dam. With
a planned hydropower capacity of 5.25 gigawatts and a flooded canyon twice
as voluminous as the country’s largest lake, it is the centrepiece of a plan
to increase the country’s electricity supply fivefold by 2015.
Mr Meles insists that Egypt will also benefit from the dam, saying it is
being offered the chance to buy cheaper power. But he hardly exudes
goodwill, accusing Egyptians of trying to undermine Ethiopia’s search for
funds to build the thing. In any event, says Mr Meles, Ethiopia will push
ahead, using “every ounce of our strength, every penny we can save, to
complete our programme.”
How will Ethiopia pay? Chinese banks are apparently underwriting the cost of
turbines and other electrical equipment. That still leaves one of the
poorest countries in the world a good $3 billion short. Some engineers think
the cost will exceed $4.8 billion. Ethiopians are being urged to subscribe
to a bond issue on patriotic grounds. But it is unlikely to generate more
than a fraction of the required amount. Neither the World Bank nor private
investors are willing to put up the cash, since Ethiopia has failed to
create partnerships with power companies in neighbouring countries to which
it could sell electricity. The Nile’s geology may be favourable for dam
building, but the flow of money is not.
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