http://english.pravda.ru/history/07-02-2012/120437-somalia-0/
Somalia: Under the tutelage of ghost-lords
07.02.2012
By Abukar Arman
At this dreadful moment in its history-when the obituary of a nation in
life support is being written-political correctness is a luxury that
Somalia cannot afford. Yes, Somalia is a failed State. But, failure is not
a permanent condition, unless people choose to make it so by retiring their
dignity and spirit of resilience.
Since the collapse of the military government 21 years ago, Somalia went
through various levels of problems perpetuated by clan militias, warlords,
economic-lords, religious-lords, regional-lords, and a group that I would
refer to as the Ghost-lords. All except the latter were domestic phenomena,
and as counter-intuitive as it may seem, the Ghost-lords is the most
elusive and perhaps the biggest obstacle to the reconstitution of the
Somali state. Yet it remains the highest international authority that
oversees every aspect of the political process in Somalia.
The Ghost-lords are a loose association of paradoxical powers of the Good,
Bad, and Ugly of International Community. They come with all kinds of
stripes, creeds, dogmas, and political and economic opportunism; they work
together and work against each other; they provide solutions and problems,
enticements and threats, good governance and corruption.
Of course this is not to say that there is a covert web of conspiracy
connecting every aspect of the Ghost-lords. There is no evidence that each
of the elements that make up the Ghost-lords is driven by the same
objective. In fact, there is ample evidence to the contrary as certain
elements within that group have interests that are clearly at odds with one
another, especially on who should engineer the post civil-war Somali State
and whose interest should that state serve.
In one form or another, the Ghost-lords have funded at least 15
"Reconciliation Conferences" that turned out to be nothing more than pricey
power-clutching rituals. Within the span of 12 years of transition, these
so-called Reconciliation Conferences have produced 3 Presidents and 9 Prime
Ministers.
While there certainly are domestic factors that keep Somalia divided,
nothing has exacerbated the downward spiral to balkanization more than
Ethiopia and United States' respective policies toward that nation.
Ethiopia's Building Blocks or Frag-D-Frag approach (fragmenting the
fragmented) offers military trainings and weapons to any and all political
actors on the ground, despite the UN weapons embargo on Somalia (92).
Coupled with the US' Dual-Track policy which provides political legitimacy
and financial incentives to any and all political actors so long as they
stand opposed to al-Shabaab, even if said actors are on a path that makes
the reconstitution of the Somali State extremely difficult, if not
impossible.
Currently, there are at least 25 Village and Regional States within the
country with their own Presidents, Defense Ministers, Foreign Ministers,
etc. The International Community not only accepts these actors as the
legitimate stakeholders who could function as independent Mini-States, it
encourages other such entities to be formed as it reserves space for what
it calls "Emerging States".
Ironically, the Transitional Federal Government (TFG) that theoretically
represents Somalia in the United Nations and is recognized by all
international institutions is placed in a political straitjacket that
practically handicapped its decision-making authority. At this stage of the
political process, any of the above-mentioned 25 Mini-States has more
authority to make any political and economic decisions without earning the
wrath of the Ghost-lords.
Marching to the cacophonic drumbeats of the Ghost-lords became the only
source of political legitimacy, even if the march leads to what might be
against Somalia's national interest. Today, the TFG and theTransitional
Federal Parliament (TFP) are under extraordinary pressure from people who
are not part of the indigenous stakeholders such as regional
administrations or local civil societies to expedite the ratification of a
controversial draft constitution that the United Nations Development
Programme (UNDP) claims to have spent $60 million that has more holes than
Swiss cheese. All that before any genuine reconciliation has taken place.
"As I have mentioned before, finalizing the draft Constitution before the
May deadline must be a top priority now," wrote the UN special
Representative for Somalia, Ambassador Augustine Mahiga in a letter
published on Jan 26th. Then he added this stiff warning to the TFP "One of
the key problems remains the ongoing impasse within the Parliament. I have
impressed upon the leaders that the region and the international community
demands that it is resolved quickly. As I have constantly reminded all
parties, spoilers of the peace process will not be tolerated and
non-compliance will result in decisive action."
In fairness to the TFP, despite its occasional display of
unprofessionalism, has on this occasion exercised its legitimate authority
and employed a democratic process replacing its Speaker via a vote of no
confidence- a decision that has considerable public support. Yet, they are
considered "spoilers of the peace process"! Apparently, the TFP has ousted
a man of great value to the Ghost-lords.
It is against this backdrop that British Prime Minister David Cameron
called the London Conference on Somalia (Feb 23). The conference is
supposed to attract some Heads of States and high-level representatives
from 40 different countries, mostly from donor nations. The conference
organizers ought to be commended for the interest and momentum they have
generated in a few months. The expectation is high. However, the question
is: how much can one expect from such a congested half-a-day conference?
In addition to its strategic geopolitical importance, it's now a public
knowledge that Somalia is rich in natural resources such as oil and
minerals such as uranium. Granted, this could be a curse or a blessing.
While this news and the Somali State's disintegration into balkanized
political entities (who are free to sign any deals with any one) might make
economic predators drool with temptation, all those who are interested in
peace, security and environmental welfare should be seriously concerned.
Who would stop any such political entity from going into a contract with
some mercenaries or rogue private security firms to mine uranium? Who would
protect the public interest and set up strict policies to protect against
environmental problems that could ensue from mining such hazardous
minerals? How would such Non-State actors be kept in compliance with the
International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) as they are not members of the
UN? And who would prevent that uranium from reaching the black market?
Solving the Somali political problem would require a new paradigm and
partners who are less intrusive honest brokers. Somalia needs a
decentralized unitary government and a national army to safeguard its
collective security. But not before an indigenous reconciliation that
includes Somaliland takes place, and not before a new constitution that
specifies the individual and state rights as well as the legal authority to
land and natural resources is collectively negotiated and ratified.
Somaliland is indeed the missing link.
Abukar Arman is Somalia Special Envoy to the United States
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Received on Tue Feb 07 2012 - 12:23:21 EST
