The deployment of 100 U.S. special operations forces to Central Africa
in October 2011 is an important moment in foreign military support for
Uganda, but for the U.S. military it is a relatively low-cost
operation with great potential for success. More important for the
United States, the deployment offers an opportunity for U.S. Africa
Command to further its goals in the region, including those in South
Sudan and Somalia.
Analysis
It has been five months since 100 U.S. special operations forces were
deployed to Uganda, the Central African Republic, the Democratic
Republic of the Congo and South Sudan to advise Central African forces
in combat against the Lord's Resistance Army (LRA) militant group. The
stated goal of the October 2011 deployment was to increase the tempo
and efficacy of those countries' operations against the LRA.
The special operations deployment is the largest and most
sophisticated military deployment of U.S. forces to Uganda to date.
While the deployment represents important foreign military support for
Uganda, for the U.S. military it is a relatively low-cost operation
with great potential for success. More important for Washington, the
operation presents an opportunity for U.S. Africa Command (AFRICOM) to
make political and intelligence gains in East Africa, the Great Lakes
region and the greater Horn region, including countering China's
increasing influence in the area.
Limited Threat of the LRA
Created in 1987, the LRA is a Christian resistance movement of the
ethnic Acholi people, who hail from northern Uganda and southern South
Sudan. Though once of great concern to governments in the Great Lakes
region of Central Africa, primarily Uganda, the LRA exists today as a
low-level insurgency. The LRA is estimated to have only 200-300
fighters, and the group sustains itself by recruiting child soldiers
during unsophisticated raids with machetes on villages in northwestern
Uganda and the nearby corners of South Sudan, the Central African
Republic and the Democratic Republic of the Congo.
Since the administration of President George W. Bush, the United
States has contributed modest financial assistance, counterterrorism
advisers and technical trainers to help Uganda in its operations
against the LRA. Last October, U.S. President Barack Obama announced
that U.S. special operations forces would be deployed to help Ugandan
and other regional forces combat the LRA through AFRICOM. The
announcement was not controversial, but Stratfor believed that the
United States had exaggerated the threat posed by the LRA.
Though the United States is hardly concerned about the threat of the
LRA, the rebels have been a constant threat in northern Uganda. The
administration of Ugandan President Yoweri Museveni has repeatedly
tried, without success, to eliminate the group. While the Museveni
administration has significantly reduced the LRA's area of operations
in Uganda, the group has continued its attacks in the northwestern
extremes of the country and in the territory of Uganda's northeastern
neighbors. With the help of AFRICOM, Uganda and other countries in the
region have a chance to further reduce the LRA's area of operations.
AFRICOM's Objectives
Established in 2006 by the Bush administration and based in Stuttgart,
Germany, AFRICOM is primarily intended to help African security forces
build up their capabilities to handle regional security issues. To
complete its mission, AFRICOM needs stable African partners with
access to areas of instability. Having such a partner is especially
important at a time when the international community and Pan-African
groups are calling for African-based initiatives to solve African
problems. A committed political partner such as Uganda can legitimize
and complement U.S. initiatives in Africa.
Uganda is a stable country in an unstable region and an ideal platform
from which to assert U.S. regional interests. Its geographic location
has proved useful in mediating issues in Sudan and the Central African
Republic; in setting up security initiatives to fight smuggling from
Northern Kivu, the Democratic Republic of the Congo; and in
facilitating training for African Union in Somalia (AMISOM) troops
bound for Mogadishu, Somalia. Additionally, although Uganda is still a
relatively new market for foreign investment -- unlike its coastal
neighbors -- U.S. military investment will help strengthen the Ugandan
government, making the country a more attractive destination for
investment.
By deploying troops in three of Uganda's neighboring countries, where
Uganda has had problems coordinating anti-LRA operations, the United
States can facilitate joint operations that benefit Uganda. The
presence of U.S. troops in Uganda also gives the country the ability
to influence its neighbors by leveraging their military ties with the
United States.
Washington hopes that by helping Uganda fight the LRA and harden its
northern borders, it will strengthen the U.S.-Ugandan joint
counterterrorism platform. A more stable joint platform would be
useful for the United States when it comes to other instances of
regional instability that are of greater concern to Washington.
South Sudan, Somalia and Chinese Influence
Despite its reluctance to offer ground support, the United States
remains invested in the stability of South Sudan, Uganda's northern
neighbor, and Somalia further east. The United States historically has
been the largest aid donor for South Sudan, including during the
period before 2011 when the country was an autonomous region in Sudan.
The United States has been an advocate for South Sudanese sovereignty
through the United Nations and the U.N. Security Council, but it has
struggled to help the newly independent state as tensions have risen
with Sudan over oil transport and border negotiations.
With no oil interests in the area, Washington has had few options to
help South Sudan overcome its obstacles in negotiations with Sudan,
including its limited ability to credibly threaten military action.
However, by assisting the South Sudanese government to combat the LRA,
the United States can help Juba as it struggles to unify against
Khartoum.
The United States also has interests in facilitating stability in
Somalia. AFRICOM has one dedicated base in the Horn of Africa -- Camp
Lemonier in Djibouti -- and several forward operating bases in
Ethiopia and Kenya that it can use in its mission to counter the al
Shabaab Islamist militant group in Somalia. Although the Obama
administration has been quick to point to its humanitarian and fiscal
support for Somalia's Transitional Federal Government, Washington has
been hesitant to deploy troops in Somalia since the 1993 battle in
Mogadishu that claimed the lives of 18 U.S. special operations
soldiers. Having a new partner in the region offers the United States
another way to influence the conflict in Somalia.
Since 2007, Uganda has been the primary provider of AMISOM troops and
has trained Sierra Leonean and Burundian soldiers prior to their
deployments to Mogadishu. The European Union and United States
historically have helped Ugandan forces train AMISOM in Uganda. But
Uganda's role in the Somali conflict is set to increase in light of
the February 2012 announcement that AMISOM forces, with EU and U.N.
Security Council funding, will add 5,000 soldiers and see a 200
percent budget increase. With an increase in AMISOM force capabilities
and Uganda's role in training AMISOM forces, the United States can
benefit from closer relations with Uganda.
Lastly, as China continues to establish a dominant position along the
eastern coastline of Africa through aid and investment, Uganda can
serve as a valuable economic counterweight for the United States. The
growing economy of Uganda could increase trade within the East African
Community (EAC), which comprises Burundi, Kenya, Rwanda, Tanzania and
Uganda. Exporting primarily through ports in Mombasa and Dar es
Salaam, the EAC still has problems accessing the markets of its
interior members. Newly discovered oil reserves around Uganda's Lake
Albert could open up new trade corridors and promote the creation of
additional interior trade routes from the Democratic Republic of the
Congo and South Sudan, through Uganda, to Kenya and northern Tanzania.
The relationship between Uganda and the United States still has its
challenges, particularly with regard to China's increasing economic
influence in East Africa. But placing U.S. boots on the ground under
AFRICOM strengthens U.S.-Ugandan political and military cooperation in
an unprecedented way. While Washington further promotes Kampala as a
key player in regional politics, Uganda is positioned to assist in the
advancement of U.S. interests in the region.
