http://www.countercurrents.org/baroud120412.htm
The Logic Of Unintended Consequences: The ‘Mess In Mali'
*By Ramzy Baroud *
12 April, 2012
*Countercurrents.org*
The intentional misreading of UN security council resolution 1973 resulted
in Nato's predictably violent Operation Odyssey in Libya last year.
Not only did the action cost many thousands of lives and untold
destruction, it also paved the way for perpetual conflict - not only in
Libya but throughout north Africa.
Mali was the first major victim of Nato's Libyan intervention. It is now a
staple in world news and headlines such as "The mess in Mali" serve as a
mere reminder of a bigger "African mess."
On March 17 last year resolution 1973 resolved to establish a no-fly zone
over Libya.
On March 19, Nato's bombers began scorching Libyan land, supposedly to
prevent a massacre of civilians.
The next day, an ad-hoc high-level African Union panel on Libya met in
Nouakchott, the capital of Mauritania, and made one last desperate call to
bring Nato's war to an immediate halt.
It stated: "Our desire is that Libya's unity and territorial integrity be
respected as well as the rejection of any kind of foreign military
intervention."
The African Union (AU) is seldom considered a viable political player by
the UN, Nato or any interventionist Western power.
But AU members were fully aware that Nato was unconcerned with human rights
or the well-being of African nations.
They also knew that instability in one African country can lead to major
instabilities throughout the region.
Various north African countries are glued together by a delicate balance -
due to the messy colonial legacy inherited from colonial powers - and Mali
is no exception.
It is perhaps too early to talk about winners and losers in the Mali
fiasco, which was triggered on March 22 by a military coup led by army
captain Amadou Sanogo.
The coup created political space for the Tuaregs' National Movement for the
Liberation of Azawad (MNLA) to declare independence in the north merely two
weeks later.
The declaration was the culmination of quick military victories by MNLA and
its militant allies, which led to the capture of Gao and other major towns.
These successive developments further emboldened Islamic and other militant
groups to seize cities across the country and hold them hostage to their
ideological and other agendas.
Ansar al-Din, for example, had reportedly worked in tandem with the MNLA,
but declared a war "against independence" and "for Islam" as soon as it
secured its control over Timbuktu.
More groups and more arms are now pouring through the ever-porous borders
with Mauritania, Algeria and Niger.
Al-Tawhid wa al-Jihad, along with al-Qaida in the Islamic Maghreb (AQIM)
are now making their moves across Mali.
New alliances are being formed and new emirates are being declared, making
Mali a potential stage for numerous permanent conflicts.
Speaking to the Guardian, former UN regional envoy Robert Fowler railed
against Nato.
"Whatever the motivation of the principal Nato belligerents [in ousting
Gadaffi], the law of unintended consequences is exacting a heavy toll in
Mali today and will continue to do so throughout the Sahel as the vast
store of Libyan weapons spreads across this, one of the most unstable
regions of the world."
Considering that the inevitability of post-Libya destabilisation was
obvious to so many from the start, why the insistence on referencing a "law
of unintended consequences"?
Even "chaos" has its own logic. For several years, and especially since the
establishment of the United States Africa Command (Africom) in 2008, much
meddling has taken place in various parts of Africa.
Writing in Foreign Policy magazine, Gregory Mann tried to undermine the
fact that Sanogo "had American military training, and briefly affected a US
Marine Corps lapel pin."
He said that these details "are surely less important than the stunning
fact that a decade of American investment in special forces training,
co-operation between Sahalien armies and the United States and
counter-terrorism programmes of all sorts run by both the State Department
and the Pentagon has, at best, failed to prevent a new disaster in the
desert and, at worst, sowed its seeds."
The details are hardly "less important," considering that Sanogo called for
international military intervention against the newly declared Tuareg
republic, referencing Afghanistan as a model.
True, regional African countries and international institutions have
strongly objected to both the military coup in the capital Bamako and the
declaration of independence by the Tuaregs in the north, but that may prove
irrelevant after all.
The Azawad succession appears permanent and the US, although it suspended
part of the aid to Mali following the junta's takeover, has not severed all
ties with Sanogo.
After all, he too claims to be fighting al-Qaida and its allies.
It is difficult to believe that despite years of US-French involvement in
Mali and surrounding region, the bedlam wasn't predictable.
The US position regarding the coup was precarious.
"The Obama administration has not yet made a formal decision as to whether
a military coup has taken place in Mali," wrote John Glaster in
AntiWar.com.
According to US military definitions, this is still a "mutiny, not a
'coup'" and US army personnel - referred to as "advisory troops" - were in
fact dispatched to Bamako after March 22, according to Africom spokeswoman
Nicole Dalrymple.
What is clear is that the "mess in Mali" might be an opportunity for
another intervention, which mainstream media sources are already
rationalising.
A Washington Post editorial on April 5 counselled: "Nato partners should
perceive a moral obligation, as well as a tangible national security
interest, in restoring Mali's previous order. The West should not allow its
intervention in Libya to lead to the destruction of democracy - and
entrenchment of Islamic militants - in a neighbouring state."
Unintended consequences? Hardly.
*- Ramzy Baroud (www.ramzybaroud.net) is an internationally-syndicated
columnist and the editor of PalestineChronicle.com. His latest book is My
Father Was a Freedom Fighter: Gaza's Untold Story (Pluto Press, London). *
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Received on Fri Apr 13 2012 - 11:42:02 EDT
