From: Berhane Habtemariam (Berhane.Habtemariam@gmx.de)
Date: Wed Jul 01 2009 - 04:52:21 EDT
Analysis - Mogadishu War: Roots and Foreign Interests
By
<http://www.islamonline.net/servlet/Satellite?c=Article_C&cid=1245846037217&
pagename=Zone-English-Muslim_Affairs%2FMAELayout#**1> Daauud Ahmed
Freelance Writer
01/07/2009
Image
Awyess, the opposition leader, addresses a news conference in the capital
Mogadishu, ( Reuters photo)
Mogadishu's devastating habit of war has renewed again, with the worst
evacuation hitting the country's most residential areas. The elderly,
children, and women are fleeing their homes, as one of the fierce fighting
has broken out in the city center.
The fighting, which has been escalating for the past four weeks, has left
more than 300 people dead, more than 700 injured, and around 120,000
displaced.
Only civilians are dying in the midst of these intermittent clashes. This
war is more harmful than the previous ones, because warring parties are in
all sections of the city, which makes every part of the city unstable.
Mainly, the districts north of Mogadishu that got safe from the war against
Ethiopian troops in the past two years, are now the hardest hit areas.
A suicide bomb attack claimed by Harakat Ash-Shabab Al-Mujahideen killed the
national security minister Omar Hashi, the former ambassador of Somalia to
Ethiopia Abdikarin Farah, and fifty more others including elders,
politicians, military chief officers, and armed forces; Ash-Shabab judged
the victims as apostates in Beletweyn district, central Somalia.
In Mogadishu, a stranded city where getting daily food is very difficult,
death is more preferred than wound. To suffer an injury is more difficult
than to die, because of road blockades, lack of access to hospitals, and of
course treatment expenses.
The pray of death is widely cited at all corners of the city.
Public View Towards the Fighting
The war was described as "Fitnah war which is forbidden in Islam" by the
Council of Islamic Scholars in Mogadishu, and is renounced by the elite
community in Mogadishu.
A "Fitna war" is one between two Muslim groups fighting each other in breach
of the teachings of Islam.
Before the war, the Islamic Scholars' Council extensively preached people at
mosques for the purpose of avoiding this "Fitnah war", as the scholars
wanted in advance to step to prevent Somalis from fighting each other after
the Ethiopian troops' pullout.
Mohamed Abulahi, a local political analyst, says: "This war is not related
to religion, but it is politically motivated and masterminded by foreign
interests, which is not gaining support among community elders, the Council
of Islamic Scholars, or the international community at large"
"We are neither displaced by Americans, Ethiopians, nor AMISON (African
Union Mission in Somalia), but chaotic 'Islamists'. We do not know where to
run because every part of the country is under the control of these
'Islamists'," chairman of Somali Poets, Abshir Ba'adle, said.
Root Causes of the War
The splitting up of "Islamists" was a precursor to the war, as some of them
started running after Ethiopians, and shelling them on their way, while
others asked not to attack Ethiopians as they were already leaving the
country.
The Islamists themselves exchanged contradictory statements on the media,
and their differences could be learnt publicly.
An explanation of the immediate reasons of the current infighting goes as
follows:
Assassinations and Roadside Bombs
As soon as Ethiopians withdrew, notorious assassinations have prevailed and
become rampant in Mogadishu, especially in Bakara market; the largest market
in Somalia.
Unknown gunmen killed civilians in the market. Many people including
journalists, businesspeople, and elders were murdered in daylight.
But this time, killing was accelerated targeting officials of the Union of
Islamic Courts (UIC) who are supporting the government. The UIC accused
Ash-Shabab to be behind the assassinations, but Ash-Shabab denied any
involvement of the killing. The UIC re-acted by targeting Ash-Shabab
officials. This mutual killing was believed to have triggered the
face-to-face fighting amongst the Islamists.
Following the attempted killing of Interior Minister Shiekh Abdukadir Ali
Omar, a well-known figure from the UIC, two other senior officers of the UIC
were rescued from a targeted roadside bomb and an execution attempt.
Eritrea and Ethiopia
The situation was continuing this way for about four months until Hassan
Dahir Aways came back from Eritrea to Mogadishu and declared war, mobilizing
his supporters to oust the government.
Aways, the Eritrean-backed leader and the chairman of Hisbul Islam,
succeeded in leveling violence to skyrocket and seemingly in blocking the
government's efforts to bring peace to the country.
Mogadishu and its residents are the victims of a nonstop proxy war between
two hostile neighbors; Eritrea and Ethiopia.
The two countries are believed to be one of the greatest players of
Mogadishu's endless war. Each of them wants to vest its interest at any
government on the ground in Somalia.
If a Somali government has got close relationship with Ethiopia, Eritrea,
will host and create an opposition group to topple that government, and the
vice versa.
In early 2007, when the Transitional Federal Government (TFG) was divided
over the issue of Ethiopian intervention, former parliament speaker and many
other MPs shifted loyalty and united with the remnants of the Union of
Islamic Courts, which was seen as defeated by Ethiopian troops.
Eritrea extended support for the two wings of TFG and UIC, protecting them
from the Alliance for the Re-liberation of Somalia (ARS) in Asmara, which
later split up in two sides.
One side joined the government and the other remained in Eritrea. The part
that joined the government has lost its friends in Asmara. And, the
remained part consolidated Eritrea's relationship.
Now, the existing government has lost its control over the country and
confined to a few blocks in Mogadishu.
A shocking demand of foreign troops (similar to the former demand of 2006)
is coming from the government. They are demanding from neighboring countries
- including Ethiopia to intervene abruptly.
However, this demand will damage the public support and potentially can
cause a further split up of government officials. On the other hand,
Eritrea is accused of pouring planeload weapons to opposition strongholds in
Somalia. Yet, if Ethiopia intervenes, Eritrea will host the defeated group;
the same old scenario would prevail in the future.
If the coalitions forces of Harakat Ash-Shabab Al-Mujahideen and Hizbul
Islam assumes power, they will turn against each other, because they do not
have any objectives rather than removing the government from power.
Moreover, Western governments will not resist interfering, because they
blame the coalition to have links with Al-Qaeda.
International and Regional Interests
Stability of Somalia is not impressive to Kenya, Ethiopia, and the west.
"Wait-and-see" habit of the international community shows that the chaos in
Somalia seems to protract.
The former president of Kenya Daniel arap Moi said, "We do not want to see
peaceful Somalia, because we lose many interests on hand now."
Moreover, all international organizations responsible for work in Somalia
are based in Kenya, so Kenya uses Somali resources to alleviate unemployment
inside its country.
Ethiopia, on the other hand, wants Somalia's violence to prolong, because it
needs territorial gains from Somalia, particularly seaports, which it gets
through with cheap rates during lawlessness.
Western countries are accused of not supporting stability in Somalia,
because they transformed the Somali Sea as a garbage can for their nuclear
waste.
Debate of Foreign "Islamic Fighters"
"They have been coming to Somalia to fight the 'enemy of Allah', including
the Ethiopian troops."
There were some rumors in the past that foreign fighters were in Somalia,
but most of Somalis believe that Western governments use these rumors to
justify their interference in Somalia's internal affairs - as they had
created rumors about Iraq possessing Weapons of Mass Destruction in order to
occupy it.
The chairman of Mogadishu Traditional Elders, Mohamed Hassan Haad,
exclaimed, "anyone who goes to the front line of the fighting will see
aliens involving the war, and we believe the animosity going on in Somalia
for the past 19 years, are not for the Somali people."
"There is a prior suspicion we had, and our eyes could see something
clearly, we believe that foreign interest opposite to that of Somalia was
working on the ground, and that is why we were not able to sit together and
solve the problems of our own," he added
To the shock and horror of the Somali people, "Islamists" themselves
admitted, when Sheikh Hussein Ali Fidow, a representative of Ash-Shabab for
political affairs in the central regions of Somalia, warned Somalis against
calling the 'Muslim brothers' aliens.
"They have been coming to Somalia to fight the 'enemy of Allah', including
the Ethiopian troops, the African peacekeepers and those who brought them to
the country," he added.
Nonetheless, the retreat and war in Mogadishu make the capital departed,
heedless of the mothers and elderly who are crying and exposed to the bad
weather in make-shift camps in the outskirts of the city.
The rebels continue fighting for their promise to impose Shari`ah of their
own version in the whole country, rather than government's pledge to
implement Shari`ah, turning deaf ears toward the peace call from the Council
of Islamic Scholars, the community, and the traditional elders.
Now, no efforts of mediating a ceasefire between the warring parties. Both
the government and opposition groups are prepared to pursue the war against
each other.
_____
Daauud Ahmed is a Somali based Freelance writer and translator. He holds a
BA in Business Administration and two certificates in Political science
(Methods of Inquiry) and International Studies (Conflict and Development).
He is also the deputy president of the Center of Peace and Research Studies.
----[This List to be used for Eritrea Related News Only]----
