From: Biniam Tekle (biniamt@dehai.org)
Date: Mon Jul 13 2009 - 08:50:58 EDT
9 - 15 July 2009
Issue No. 955 In the line of fire *Gamal Nkrumah* examines political
prospects in Somalia after Islamists issued the government five days to
surrender
"All on the apostate government soldiers who are in the frontline of the
battle to surrender to the Islamists and hand over all their weapons,"
Sheikh Mokhtar Abu Zubeir, a leader of Shabab (Youth) or to use its proper
name, the Mujahideen Youth Movement, exhorted the troops of the Transitional
Federal Government (TFG) of Somali President Sheikh Sherif Sheikh Ahmed. The
president declined to comment, but the TFG Minister of Defence Sheikh
Youssef Mohamed Siyad Indhaade, while confirming the televised threat,
insisted that the government would not be moved by such "empty threats". He
denied Shabab claims that Somalis are embracing the Islamist militias
ideology. He calmed the fears of the TFG supporters and he claimed that the
TFG troops have enough military clout to trounce the Shabab's Islamist
militias. "The government soldiers will not lay down their weapons," the
minister of defence boasted.
What is clear is that the militant Islamists of Somalia have moved deftly
into alignment with the country's people.
The problem with the Somali president is that he failed to make good on
pre-election hints of a compromise president. He should remember that the
success of his presidency is built on his reputation for restraint. He was
one of the leaders of the Islamic Courts Union, but he is now widely seen as
betraying their cause and indeed, the irony is that his fellow sheikhs are
now threatening him with prosecution by Sharia Courts (ICU). He needs, in
any case, to work with militant groups such as the Shabab if he is to remain
a political force to be reckoned with in the country. And, that now will not
be easy.
The militant Islamists of Somalia have ossified into something of a
xenophobic sulk. The Islamists are about to take over. That could really
break Somalia's traditional ties with its predominantly non-Islamic
neighbours -- Kenya and Ethiopia.
Grim images of Black Hawk Down still haunt the American and Western psyche.
Besides, the administration of US President Barack Obama seems to have had a
change of heart as far as Washington's traditional Somali policy is
concerned.
"Given the long-standing enmity between Somalis and Ethiopians, I will
encourage the Ethiopians not to re-engage in Somalia," John Carson, US
assistant secretary of state for African Affairs warned Ethiopia of
interfering in Somali affairs. Ironically, it was the US that had in the
past egged the Ethiopians on to send their troops into Somalia. US-supported
Ethiopian troops invaded Somalia in December 2006, ousting the ICU, which
then included both President Sherif Sheikh Ahmed and his arch-rival Sheikh
Dhaher Aweis, the outspoken militant leader of Al-Hizb Al-Islami. Ethiopia
has no qualms about crushing the Islamist forces in Somalia, but it has come
to realise that it cannot do so. When the ICU was being put together, the
Ethiopians tried their best to undermine the movement with the backing of
then US administration of George W Bush. Then the Ethiopians tried hard to
garner support among moderates. Today, the moderates among the Islamists
have been extensively purged.
The hatred for the Ethiopian invaders outweighed emotive and divisive issues
such as working with the Ethiopians to resolve Somalia's political problems.
Aweis has been embraced by many of his long-suffering people. His is not
only a personal victory but a huge stride forward for Somalia's militant
Islamists. They have come out decisively for democracy, Islamic-style.
The crucial problem at the moment is the humanitarian disaster that the war
in Somalia engendered. More than 3.5 million Somalis are threatened with
famine and destitution. The war resulted in a mass exodus from the Somali
capital Mogadishu and the humanitarian situation is worse in areas such as
south central Somalia where the Islamists hold sway. The autonomous regions
in the north of the country -- Puntland in the northeast and Somaliland in
the northwest -- are relatively less threatened by famine. The most pressing
problem at the moment as far as ordinary Somalis are concerned is to try and
feed the hungry, shelter the homeless, and bring back a semblance of
normalcy to the lives of the Somali people.
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