From: Biniam Tekle (biniamt@dehai.org)
Date: Mon Jul 20 2009 - 14:31:02 EDT
"When the Court ruled in a way unfavorable to Ethiopia, Ethiopia simply
refused to recognize the ruling. Eritrea, in turn, grew increasingly
frustrated that Ethiopia could get away with flaunting this international
process. Overtime, Eritrea grew increasingly hostile to the international
community, which it saw as the guarantor of the arbitration process"
http://www.undispatch.com/node/8646
Big week for Sudan
Mark Leon Goldberg - July 20, 2009 - 11:40am
- Africa
As early as Wednesday this week, the Permanant Court of Arbitration in the
Hague will issue a ruling on the boundary and status of Abyei, a resource
rich terrotory that lies at the juncture of South Sudan, North Sudan and
Darfur.
Control of Abyei (or more to the point, the plentiful oil under its soil)
has been a major bone of contention between South Sudan rebels and the
ruling National Congress Party in Khartoum. In 2005, both parties signed
the Comprehensive Peace Accord, which ended a 20 year civil war. However, a
final decision on the status of Abyei could not be reached at the time and
the Abyei question was kicked down the road. In the meantime, there has
been sporadic violence in the region as militias affiliated with both
parties have periodically clashed.
In a valuable report, Maggie Fick and Colin Thomas-Jensen of The Enough
Project call the forthcoming ruling a major test of the viability of the
CPA. This is certainly true. However, I am not so sanguine of the prospects
that both sides can muster the will to pass the test.
The most immediate parallel that comes to my mind is the situation along the
Eritrean-Ethiopian border. Like Abyei, the two sides fought each other to a
stalemate in a bloody civil war and agreed to kick their remaining border
dispute to the Court of Arbitration. When the Court ruled in a way
unfavorable to Ethiopia, Ethiopia simply refused to recognize the ruling.
Eritrea, in turn, grew increasingly frustrated that Ethiopia could get away
with flaunting this international process. Overtime, Eritrea grew
increasingly hostile to the international community, which it saw as the
guarantor of the arbitration process. Eventually, Eritrea harassed the
United Nations border mission out of existance and the situation remains on
the brink.
A similar process could very well play out in Abyei. In all likelihood, the
Court of Arbitration will rule against the central government. Khartoum
could then respond by doubling down on Abyei. The South, in turn, will look
to the international community for succor. The big question here is whether
or not the international community can summon the will to enforce the
Court's ruling, or at least place sanctions on parties that seek to
undermine the ruling.
The key variable here is the United States, which is the driving force
behind Abyei status negotiations. U.S. Special Envoy to Sudan Scott Gration
is supposed to be in Abyei for the ruling as a show of support. Also, Maggie
Fick and Colin Thomas-Jensen recommend the deployment of addition batallions
of UN Peacekeepers from the UN Mission in Sudan to Abyei to try and keep a
lid on the violence. This makes sense. I just hope it's not too late.
----[This List to be used for Eritrea Related News Only]----