From: Berhane Habtemariam (Berhane.Habtemariam@gmx.de)
Date: Thu Jul 23 2009 - 11:37:35 EDT
SNAP ANALYSIS-Risks remain after Sudan's Abyei ruling
Wed Jul 22, 2009 1:44pm GMT
By Andrew Heavens
ABYEI, July 22 (Reuters) - The Permanent Court of Arbitration in The Hague
on Wednesday re-drew the boundaries of Sudan's contested Abyei oil region,
ceding key oilfields and grazing lands to the north.
Diplomats and Sudanese politicians hailed the ruling as a resolution of a
festering row over the boundaries of Abyei -- one of the most sensitive
issues left unresolved in the 2005 Comprehensive Peace Agreement that ended
more than two decades of civil war between north and south Sudan.
But doubts remain whether the complex ruling will be accepted by deeply
divided communities living around Abyei.
The following are some implications of the ruling:
* The Hague decision appears to give something to both north and south Sudan
-- but still leaves room for long term disagreements and even conflict.
* On the positive side, it will give hope to diplomats who feel they now
have something like a compromise over Abyei which they can sell to the
populations of northern and southern Sudan.
The apparent willingness of the former foes to accept the Hague ruling as
final, if taken at face value, is a rare glint of cooperation in the long
and troubled roll-out of the Comprehensive Peace Agreement.
Any long-term resolution of Abyei will allow Sudan's leaders to switch their
attention to a long list of remaining flashpoints in the peace deal, not
least elections, scheduled for April 2010. It would mean a significant boost
to security, and a significant reduction in the risk of doing business in
the region.
* Southerners have some reasons to be cheerful. The decision preserves the
bulk of the region that was defined as Abyei in 2005, including Abyei town,
huge areas of fertile land and, according to maps of the new area produced
by the United Nations, the Diffra oilfield.
This would be a significant addition to southern Sudan if Abyei's population
chooses to join the south in a referendum promised under the peace deal in
January 2011. It would also be symbolic boost for the south's dominant Sudan
People's Liberation Movement (SPLM), which sees Abyei as something of an
emblem after decades of fighting across Sudan's north-south border.
* The northern government will be able to boast of significant gains to the
north, west and east of Abyei, particularly in terms of control of oil
fields.
The tribunal's decision to re-draw Abyei's western border means the railway
town of Meiram falls securely inside north Sudan.
Abyei's new eastern border also means northern Sudan will be able to keep
the key Heglig and Bamboo oilfields, whatever happens in the referendum. A
large stripe of grazing lands that fell inside the 2005 borders of Abyei now
stays firmly in the north.
These gains will all offset the fact that north Sudan was originally only
willing to concede a much smaller slice of territory as belonging to Abyei.
Diffra, Bamboo and Heglig are part of a block of oil fields, run by the
Greater Nile Petroleum Operating Company (GNPOC), a consortium led by
China's CNPC.
* There is still the potential for long term problems. It remains to be seen
whether SPLM supporters will accept the loss of Heglig, Bamboo and other
oilfields to the north, once the implications of the deal have sunk in.
This will mean an immediate loss of revenues, both to the Government of
Southern Sudan and local Dinka and Misseriya communities, all promised a
proportion of Abyei's oil revenues under interim agreements.
Diffra oil field is a significant gain for Abyei, but its production is
though to be falling.
* Another possible source of conflict could be the northern Misseriya
nomads, who might interpret the demarcation as a threat to their traditional
grazing lands.
Some may also feel disenfranchised. Misseriya tribespeople living around
Meiram and other areas now firmly inside north Sudan will, theoretically, no
longer be able to vote in the referendum on whether Abyei should join the
south.
Officials from all sides, however, repeatedly said the Misseriya's rights to
access the land with their livestock were guaranteed by the new agreement.
(Editing by Giles Elgood)
C Thomson Reuters 2009 All rights reserved
----[This List to be used for Eritrea Related News Only]----