From: medhane sebhatu (medhane8@hotmail.com)
Date: Fri Jul 24 2009 - 16:21:47 EDT
El Nino makes a comeback
Written By:Judith Akolo , Posted: Fri, Jul 24, 2009
The El Nino weather phenomenon is back after 10 years.
According to the Director of the IGAD Climate Predictions and Applications Center - ICPAC Prof Laban Ogallo, the severity of this climatic pattern is yet to be determined as meteorologists are still running models on the unfolding scenarios in the Pacific Ocean.
"The Pacific is warming up and the Indian Ocean is responding but rather slowly, however for us to get a classic El Nino weather phenomenon, the area around Madagascar and Angola need to be cool, for us to have the high pressure that will then pump the moisture into the Horn of Africa region," said Prof Ogallo in an interview at the ICPAC offices in Nairobi.
Prof Ogallo said the El Nino phenomenon currently unfolding in the Pacific Ocean, which is the largest of the other two, the Atlantic and the Indian Ocean, points towards what the Japanese are calling a Modoki El Nino event.
In the past, the Modoki type of El Nino have occurred in historical years of 1979-1980, 1986-1987, 1990-1991, 1992-1993, 1994-1995 and 2002-2003.
All these events much as they yielded rainfall in most parts of the IGAD region did not cause the torrential rains that were experienced in 1997 which the Meteorologists term a classical El Nino weather phenomenon.
In the Horn of Africa region, classical El Ninos associated with torrential rains were observed in 1982, 1987 and 1997.
They explain that then, the warming in the Pacific Ocean assumed a shoe like shape and the other two Oceans the Atlantic and the Indian Oceans responded as well bringing about heavy rains that caused a lot of suffering and apprehension to many people and governments.
Prof Ogallo said in the current El Nino though established, the other two oceans have not responded in a way that could cause torrential rains as happened in the 1997 to 1998 El Nino events.
"What we know is that the rains will be heavy during the short rains season that begins in October through December especially in the Western region of Kenya and in Eastern Uganda as a result of the wet moisture from the Atlantic Ocean," he said.
Prof Ogallo is urging governments in the IGAD region which brings together Kenya, Uganda, Sudan, Eritrea, Ethiopia and Somalia to take advantage of the ensuing El Nino related rainfall to recharge their reservoirs as the impacts could be positive on nearly all the sectors of their economies.
Prof Ogallo urged the public in the region to come up with adaptation measures as climatic conditions have both the down side and the positives which should be good for development.
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