From: Berhane Habtemariam (Berhane.Habtemariam@gmx.de)
Date: Sun Aug 30 2009 - 05:18:36 EDT
Millions facing famine in Ethiopia as rains fail
International aid agencies fear that the levels of death and starvation last
seen 24 years ago, are set to return to the Horn of Africa. Paul Rodgers
reports
Sunday, 30 August 2009
http://www.independent.co.uk/news/world/africa/millions-facing-famine-in-eth
iopia-as-rains-fail-1779376.html
The spectre of famine has returned to the Horn of Africa nearly a quarter of
a century after the world's pop stars gathered to banish it at Live Aid,
raising £150m for relief efforts in 1985. Millions of impoverished
Ethiopians face the threat of malnutrition and possibly starvation this
winter in what is shaping up to be the country's worst food crisis for
decades.
Estimates of the number of people who need emergency food aid have risen
steadily this year from 4.9 million in January to 5.3 million in May and 6.2
million in June. Another 7.5 million are getting aid in return for work on
community projects, as part of the National Productive Safety Net Program
for people whose food supplies are chronically insecure, bringing the total
being fed to 13.7 million.
Donor countries provided sustenance to 12 million Ethiopians last year, more
than half of it through the UN's World Food Programme (WFP). Having passed
that total only eight months into this year, and with the main harvest
already in doubt, aid agencies fear the worst is still to come. "We're
extremely worried," said Howard Taylor, who heads the Department for
International Development's office in Ethiopia. DfID has given £54m in aid
to the country this year, and Britain has also contributed through the EU.
"This is exactly the time when we shouldn't turn away from the people in
need," he said.
"Critical water shortages" were reported in some areas by the UN's Office
for the Co-ordination of Humanitarian Affairs last week with water-borne
diseases such as acute diarrhoea spreading as communities resort to drinking
from insanitary wells and ponds. Unicef said that the outbreaks are putting
extra pressure on its Out-Patient Therapeutic Programme, which provides
healthcare in some of the most needy areas.
In Somali, the hardest hit region with a third of the humanitarian caseload
and complications caused by a low-intensity insurgency, the mortality rate
for infants has risen above two per 10,000 per day according to a regional
nutrition survey, which gives newborns roughly a one-third chance of dying
before their fifth birthdays. While there is no clear definition, one widely
used threshold for famine is four infant deaths per 10,000 per day.
Declaring a famine is a political decision. While it can galvanise public
opinion and bring millions into aid programmes, it is widely seen as a
political failure. President George Bush challenged his officials to avoid
the word, a policy known as "No famine on my watch". Ethiopia's Disaster
Prevention and Preparedness Commission is charged with preventing famines of
the 1984-85 type, the sort that bring down governments, argued Tufts
University academics Sue Lautze and Angela Raven-Roberts in a 2004 paper.
Dismissing the warning signals, Ethiopia's Prime Minister, Meles Zenawi,
said earlier this month that there was no danger of famine this year. And
Berhanu Kebede, Ethiopia's ambassador to Britain, said at the weekend: "We
are addressing the problem. Food is in the pipeline."
The main practical difference between a food crisis and a famine is whether
enough aid arrives to keep the starving alive. So while the scope of the
problem can be measured in the number of hungry people, the severity depends
on the generosity of those in the rich world. And this year they have been
miserly. Despite the promise of G8 leaders at their summit in L'Aquila,
Italy, last month to provide $20bn (£12bn) to improve food security in poor
countries, contributions have slumped dramatically this year as donor states
have shifted priorities to supporting banks and stimulating their own
economies. "The international community is not living up to its promise to
the World Food Programme," Mr Kebede said.
The WFP had little trouble raising its $6bn budget last year, but in 2009 it
has collected less than half of that. Its Ethiopian operation, which had
$500m in 2008, is short $127m this year, equivalent to 167,000 tonnes of
food. The Famine Early Warning Network forecast this month that the
shortfall would reach 300,000 tonnes by December. Rations for the 6.2
million people receiving emergency food aid have, as a result, been slashed
by a third from a meagre 15kg of cereals, beans and oil a month to just
10kg. Even if the shortfall were made up today, it would take three months
for supplies to be loaded on to ships bound for Djibouti, then transferred
to trucks for the arduous overland journey to land-locked Ethiopia.
Aid agencies are worried about the main harvest this autumn, arguing that
the time for action is now, not when the food runs out in November – usually
the driest month – let alone when starving children with distended bellies
capture the attention of the West's television viewing public. Despite its
good intentions, Bob Geldof's Live Aid came towards the end of the 1984-85
famine, which killed more than a million people. Since then, Ethiopia's
population has doubled to 80 million.
Mr Zenawi's government has set up a strategic food reserve which has at
times reached 500,000 tonnes – though it is currently thought to be just
200,000 tonnes – which it uses to speed up delivery. As soon as they get
funds, aid agencies can borrow food from this reserve, replacing it with
supplies from abroad when they arrive. Although the government could release
this food without promises of replenishment, it would soon run out; after
covering the WFP's 167,000 tonne shortfall, the stockpile would be barely
enough to feed a million people for three months.
The underlying problem for Ethiopia is the erratic behaviour of the
country's climate, or rather its regional micro-climates. Moisture-bearing
clouds scudding in from the Indian Ocean can pass over the parched eastern
lowlands to dump generous amounts of rain on the fertile western highlands.
The famine of 1984-85, revealed by BBC reporter Michael Buerk, was actually
two separate famines, one in Tigray, in the north, the other in Somali, in
the south-east.
Two main rains sustain the people of Ethiopia, the belg in spring and the
kiremt, which usually start in July. Both are influenced by variations in
sea-surface temperature. The El Niño phenomena in the eastern Pacific
usually bring droughts to Ethiopia, and America's National Oceanic and
Atmospheric Administration predicts that the current El Niño will strengthen
over the next six months. The belg has failed for two years running now,
while the kiremt started three weeks late this summer and the amount of
rainfall when they did come was below normal. Aid agencies fear that the
season could end early, or, equally bad, produce delayed downpours just when
farmers need dry weather for the harvest. Even if the kiremt ends on time in
October, some crops may not reach maturity because of the late planting.
Ethiopia is overwhelmingly dependent on agriculture, and some 90 per cent of
its crops are watered by nature rather than by man-made irrigation systems.
During droughts, farmers and nomadic herders tend to sell off their assets
to buy food, leaving them with nothing when the next growing season begins.
It can take three to five years for pastoral tribes to rebuild their herds.
Although Ethiopia is particularly hard hit, drought has also affected
neighbouring countries. Resources in Somali are under additional strain
because nomadic tribesmen from Somalia and Kenya have driven unusually large
numbers of cattle across the border in search of water and pasture.
Estimates of the number of cattle coming into the country range from 95,000
to 200,000.
The spike in global food prices in 2008 exacerbated a worsening situation,
hitting the urban poor particularly hard. While they have fallen back this
year, the price for grains in the markets of Adis Ababa are still some 50
per cent higher than their average in the four years to 2007.
The Ethiopian government is acutely aware of the danger of famine, not least
to itself. Emperor Haile Selassie was deposed a year after the 1973 famine
and the Derg military junta led by Lt Col Mengistu Haile Mariam was
overthrown in 1991 after a civil war driven in part by the 1984-85 famine.
While most other countries with food shortages allow charities to distribute
food, Ethiopia's government insists that the bulk of food aid must pass
through its hands.
The irony is that the Zenawi regime has done a reasonable job of boosting
food production, achieving self-sufficiency in the late 1990s. One agency
described it as the "bread basket" of Africa, harvesting more grain in a
good year than South Africa. The government promotes best practices and
distributes fertiliser to farmers. It also has an ambitious scheme to
relocate 2.2 million people to more fertile areas. But even it can't control
the rains.
Many Africans blame climate change for the erratic weather patterns and
resulting food shortages. Jean Ping, the chairman of the African Union, said
last week in Adis Ababa: "Although Africa is least responsible for global
warming, it suffers most from a problem it didn't create."
The BBC R4 Reunion series, at 11.15am today, examines the 1984 Ethiopian
famine. Guests include Michael Buerk
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<http://www.independent.co.uk/opinion/leading-articles/leading-article-twent
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