From: Biniam Tekle (biniamt@dehai.org)
Date: Tue Sep 01 2009 - 14:07:50 EDT
Commentary
September 1, 2009
Gwynne Dyer: Ethiopa's famine tied to population growth
By Gwynne Dyer
A quarter-century after a million Ethiopians died in the great hunger of
1984-85, the country is heading into another famine. The spring rains failed
entirely, and the summer rains were three weeks late. But why is famine is
stalking Ethiopia again?
The Ethiopian government is authoritarian, but it isn’t incompetent. It
gives fertilizer to farmers and teaches best practices. By the late '90s the
country was self-sufficient in food in good years, and the government had
created a strategic food reserve for the bad years.
So why are we back here again? Infant deaths are already over two per 10,000
per day in Somali, the worst-hit region of Ethiopia. (Four per day counts as
full-scale famine.) Country-wide, 20 percent of the population already
depends on the dwindling flow of foreign food aid, and it will get worse for
many months yet. What have the Ethiopians done wrong?
The real answer (which everybody carefully avoids) is that they have had too
many babies. Ethiopia’s population at the time of the last famine was 40
million. Twenty-five years later, it is 80 million. You can do everything
else right—give your farmers new tools and skills, fight erosion, create
food reserves—and if you don’t control the population, you are just spitting
into the wind.
It is so obvious that this should be the start of every conversation about
the country. Even if the coming famine in Ethiopia kills a million people,
the population will keep growing. So the next famine, 10 or 15 years from
now, will hit a country of a 100 million people, trying to make a living
from farming on land where only 40 million faced starvation in the 1980s. It
is going to get much uglier in Ethiopia.
Yet it’s practically taboo to say that. The whole question of
population—instead of being central to the debate about development, about
food, about climate change—has been put on ice. The reason, I think, is that
the rich countries are secretly embarrassed, and the poor countries are
deeply resentful.
Suppose that Ethiopia had been the first country to industrialise. Suppose
some mechanical genius in Tigray invented the world’s first steam engine in
1710. The first railways were spreading across the country by the 1830s, and
at the same time Ethiopian entrepreneurs and imperialists spread all over
Africa. By the end of the 19th century, they controlled half of Europe too.
Never mind the improbabilities. The point is that an Ethiopia with such a
history would easily be rich enough to support 80 million people now—and if
it could not grow enough food for them all, it would just import it, just
like Britain (where the Industrial Revolution actually started) imports
food. Money makes everything easy.
In 1710, when Thomas Newcomen devised the first practical steam engine in
Devonshire, the population of Britain was just seven million. It is now 61
million, but they do not live in fear of famine. In fact, they eat very
well, even though they currently import over a third of their food. They got
in first, so although they never worried in the slightest about population
growth, they got away with it.
Ethiopia has more than four times the land surface of Britain. The rain is
less reliable, but a rich Ethiopia would have no trouble feeding its people.
The problem is that it got the population growth without the wealth.
Stopping the population growth now would be very hard, but otherwise famine
will be a permanent resident in another 20 years.
The problem is well understood. The population of the rich countries has
grown about tenfold since the earliest days of the Industrial Revolution,
but for the first half of that period it grew quite slowly. Many babies
died, and there were no cures for most epidemic diseases. Later the death
rate dropped, but by then, with people feeling more secure in their lives,
the birth rate was dropping too.
Whereas in most of the poor countries the population hardly grew at all
until the start of the 20th century. But once the population did start to
grow, thanks to basic public health measures that cut the death rate, it
grew faster than it ever did in the rich countries.
Unfortunately, economies don’t grow that fast, so these countries never
achieved the level of comfort and security where most people will start to
reduce their family size spontaneously. At the current rate of growth,
Ethiopia’s population will double again, to 160 million people, in just 32
years.
You’re thinking: that will never happen. Famine will become normal in
Ethiopia well before that. No combination of wise domestic policies and no
amount of foreign aid can stop it. And you are right.
What applies to Ethiopia applies to many other African countries, including
some that do not currently have famines. Uganda, for example, had five
million people at independence in 1960. It now has 32 million, and at the
current growth rate it will have 130 million by 2050. Uganda is only the
size of Oregon.
History is unfair. Conversations between those who got lucky and those left
holding the other end of the stick are awkward. But we cannot go on ignoring
the elephant in the room. We have to start talking about population again.
Gwynne Dyer’s latest book, Climate Wars, was published recently in Canada by
Random House.
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