From: Berhane Habtemariam (Berhane.Habtemariam@gmx.de)
Date: Wed Sep 16 2009 - 08:10:56 EDT
Museveni under pressure
2009-09-16 13:07
By Herve Bar
Nairobi - In the space of a month, Yoweri Museveni's 23-year-old grip on
Uganda appears to have been rattled by deadly riots and the return of a
major rival.
What started on Thursday as protests by supporters of an influential
traditional ruler, the king of the Buganda, degenerated into street battles
between rioters and security forces that have left at least 14 people dead.
The Baganda are the people of Buganda, a powerful pre-colonial kingdom in
the south of the country that resisted the British when they invaded, and
which gave its name to present-day Uganda.
What rights groups described as excessive use of force by the east African
state's security apparatus against the country's largest ethnic group could
cost Uganda's veteran strongman dearly in the 2011 polls, observers warned.
"The war between Buganda and president Museveni can only have one winner and
could easily tear the country apart," warned The Monitor, a pro-opposition
newspaper.
Genuine repercussions
"Unless checked, this stand-off could have genuine repercussions on voting
patterns in the 2011 polls, or even on national stability," the paper said.
The Baganda have always had great political and economic clout in the south,
the country's most prosperous and developed region.
Oppressed under all the northern presidents after independence - Milton
Obote, Idi Amin Dada et Tito Okello - the Baganda had found a ready ally in
Museveni, a southerner from the minority Banyankole group.
In a carefully calculated move, Museveni in 1993 symbolically restored the
kingdom of Buganda, placing it under the authority of the federal
government.
Unfettered support
"Museveni's reward for restoring the monarchy has been unfettered support
from Buganda in the 1996, 2001 and 2006 polls," The Monitor said.
Over the past two years, however, the idyll soured as many Bagandans sought
to free themselves from Museveni's control and oil discoveries fuelled
regional aspirations across the country.
According to a recent Baganda manifesto, the king's subjects have recently
felt betrayed by "an autocratic government that tries to monopolise the
resources" of their native lands and stoked ethnic discord.
Last week's violence erupted when the regime barred the king from visiting
an area controlled by a much smaller tribe that has recently received
government backing.
Benson Obua-Ogwal, a northern MP who was involved in organising the return
to Uganda of a senior opposition figure, Olara Otunnu, said the latest
events were further "evidence that Museveni has been very deliberate in his
divide-and-rule strategy".
Cultural institutions
"The way things are going, the government has probably lost Buganda now. It
seems it has shot itself in the foot," Obua-Ogwal, also a leading member of
the opposition Uganda People's Congress, said.
The rare political riots came three weeks after Olara Otunnu, a former
foreign minister and seasoned diplomat exiled since Museveni's 1986 coup,
made a high-profile return many saw as a serious challenge on the
presidency.
"The general climate in Uganda is very tense ... This regime is very
nervous, it's currently at its lowest point," said Obua-Ogwal.
In his stand-off with King Ronald Muwenda Mutebi II, the reigning Bagandan
monarch, Museveni seems to be going in for strong-arm tactics and has said
he intends to push through a new law defining traditional kingdoms as mere
"cultural institutions".
The president, a former guerrilla fighter, issued a clear warning to Baganda
representatives, reminding them that his movement "fought many battles, we
shall win this one also".
----[This List to be used for Eritrea Related News Only]----