From: Biniam Tekle (biniamt@dehai.org)
Date: Mon Sep 21 2009 - 07:56:31 EDT
*Africa’s newest capital: Is Europe ready?
* *Author:* Dr. Greg Austin
20 September 2009 - *Issue :* 852
Juba in Southern Sudan is the newest location for Europe to set up a
diplomatic outpost. The European Commission opened a delegation there just
under a month ago. On September 18, South Africa’s Foreign Minister Maite
Nkona Mashabane was in Juba to hold talks on normalization of “relations”
with Southern Sudan.
China officially opened a consulate in Juba one year ago to support a
growing presence of Chinese workers and Chinese national interests in the
region. The UN Secretary General, Ban Ki-Moon was in Juba this past week,
since the UN has 10,000 peacekeepers in southern Sudan.
The diplomatic rush to this city of more than 200,000 began in earnest in
2005 but we see a fresh intensity. The Autonomous Government of Southern
Sudan, for which this White Nile River city is capital, could become
independent under a referendum scheduled for 2011. This is included in the
terms of a 2005 peace agreement that ended one of Africa’s longest civil
wars (1983-2005).
EU foreign policy chief Javier Solana caused a stir this month when he said
that Europe hoped Sudan would remain united after the referendum. The
statement was quickly challenged by representatives of Southern Sudan who
reminded him politely that the peace agreement provides for two options, of
which one was complete independence.
Juba is deep in the south of Sudan, and lies very close to the borders with
Kenya, Uganda, Ethiopia and Congo. As a result, the internal conflicts and
foreign policies of these countries – each facing security threats
themselves – have been playing out as Southern Sudan heads for possible
independence.
Tribal clashes in Southern Sudan and other political violence continue, with
several serious attacks in recent weeks, one on August 28 that reportedly
killed 38 and injured 64 in a half-hour raid by 800 armed men. The
government of Sudan is of course keen to promote the continued unity of
Sudan, but the two sides can’t even agree yet on terms of the referendum.
Will a 51 percent vote in favor be enough to provide for independence or
will a 75 percent vote be needed?
Europe needs a new sense of urgency about the situation in Sudan. Few
governments seem to be prepared to contemplate the emergence of a newly
independent state in an already troubled area. Even the Lord’s Resistance
Army from Uganda has become involved and Kenya has reportedly sent 200
military advisers to the Juba government.
People in the south are critical of China’s support to the north with
weapons and political cover at the United Nations. Many in the north see the
hand of the CIA in supporting secession by the South. The picture is not so
simple, but there are enough counter-currents of violence and external
political involvement to suggest that the path to the referendum and
possible secession will get more complex, not less.
There is massive good will in the international community toward all
communities in Sudan. Norway, the United States and the United Kingdom have
invested heavily in peaceful outcomes. China is now significantly engaged.
The European Union and other member states like the Netherlands provide
economic assistance and political support to buttress peace.
It would be useful to know what preparations these players are making for
the political act of secession. Assessments from several places suggest that
the new country would be a relatively weak state. Secession would
destabilize the politics of the rest of the country. As the referendum date
draws closer, the sense of insecurity mounts. Politics in Sudan will not
rest while foreign bureaucrats draw up well-considered plans of long-term
economic reconstruction. The Sudanese people will themselves have to make
the tough decisions, but those from outside who want to avoid war should by
now have prepared for the contingency of it. As the referendum approaches
in 2011, clouded by national elections next year and active preparations for
renewed fighting, we need confidence that there is a plan for keeping the
peace in the days and weeks after any act of secession or, even earlier,
after any collapse of the peace agreement.
----[This List to be used for Eritrea Related News Only]----