From: Berhane Habtemariam (Berhane.Habtemariam@gmx.de)
Date: Wed Jun 02 2010 - 16:25:44 EDT
House of cards
Smothering Somalia with well wishes and little else seems to be a parlour
game favoured by donors at this week's Istanbul conference, evinces
<mailto:gnkrumah@ahram.org.eg?subject=Region%20::%20House%20of%20cards>
Gamal Nkrumah
2 June 2010
_____
Well-meaning friends can be perilous. The Somali example is a case in point.
Somalia has this week slid further into its downward spiral, its sad descent
into acrimonious polarisation. Part of the problem is that its well-meaning
Western friends and African neighbours who wish to sort out Somalia's
political difficulties are overwhelming the country's precarious government
with meaningless well wishes. Left to their own devices, the Somali
protagonists at each other's throats will ultimately determine the winner --
and it is a question of winner takes all.
Several politically aligned Islamist forces intensified attacks on the
presidential palace and on the Transitional Federal Government (TFG) army
bases in the embattled Somali capital Mogadishu. Hundreds of innocent
civilians have lost their lives in the battles over the past two weeks. It
is unlikely under the present internal dynamics that the TFG will emerge as
a winner without the massive support of Western powers and international aid
donors.
Somali President Sheikh Sherif Sheikh Ahmed was out of the country
participating in the International Conference on Reconstruction and
Development in Somalia taking place in Istanbul, Turkey, even as his capital
was afire. The Istanbul conference was co-convened by the United Nations,
and the government of Turkey and Somalia's TFG.
UN Secretary-General Ban Ki-Moon officiated over the deliberations urging
the international community to step up development aid and humanitarian
assistance to the war-ravaged country. "The TFG represents Somalia's best
chance in years to escape from the endless cycle of war and humanitarian
disaster," the UN secretary-general told participants at the Istanbul
conference. He warned against the "dire conditions on land" that "open the
way for a surge in piracy at sea". Ban's main concern appears to be to
ensure that Somalia's strategic sea-lanes are secured for international
trade.
While the Somali president was in Istanbul, a palace coup allegedly took
place in Mogadishu. He had sacked his Prime Minister Omar Abdel-Rashid Ali
Sharmake, a secularist who has no time for Islamists of any kind, a move
that pre-empted a backlash by the premier's henchmen. Yet, the Somali
president was forced to rescind and to reinstate his ousted premier "for the
sake of peace" he explained. Somalia's defence minister, Yusuf Mohamed Siyad
blamed the prime minister for inciting the recent spate of fighting.
"My soldiers left the northern base because they lacked the required
ammunition," the defence minister lamely excused his setbacks in battle.
What he failed to explain was that the combined Islamist forces pitted
against the government were the driving force and not the premier's faithful
followers. "It wasn't the case that my men were overpowered." In actual
fact, his men had to beat a hasty retreat from the key Mogadishu
neighbourhoods Hodan, Hawawadag and Wardigley.
The Somali crisis is no longer just smoldering away. It is alight. Sheikh
Sherif is marooned in Turkey, helplessly watching the tragedies of Somalia
unravel. He's hardly the man to confront the Captain Hooks of the Indian
Ocean, to the chagrin of the US-led Contact Group on Piracy off the Coast of
Somalia (CGPCS) established in January 2009.
The CGPCS includes Egypt, Japan, Kenya, Saudi Arabia, NATO, the EU, Russia,
the UN Secretariat, the kitchen sink, so to speak, not to forget the
International Maritime Organisation. The Istanbul Declaration in support of
Somalia was duly issued, but in fact the focus was on the waterways and
piracy affecting Western shipping.
This was not a prudent move to resolve the Somali crisis. Still, Somalia
should not follow its benefactors' judgements slavishly. Somalis must work
out their own salvation with a sensible policy of national reconciliation.
What this policy must provide is clear: democratisation even if it means
Islamisation.
The driving force for change in contemporary Somalia appears to be Harakat
Al-Shabab Al-Mujahideen (The Movement of Youth Fighters) better known as
Al-Shabab. It adheres to a strict Wahabbi Islamic code of conduct as the
only sanctioned strand of Islam. Mukhtar Ali Robow, a former leader of the
now defunct Islamic Courts Union, leads the movement. The former leader of
Al-Shabab, Adan Hashi Ayro was killed in a United States missile attack in
May 2008, but the movement has tremendous standing among the people of
Somalia in spite of its reputation as a militant organisation. It is
politically aligned to Hizbul-Islam led by Sheikh Dhaher Aweis, a one-time
ally of the beleaguered Somali president.
Protesters, in an unprecedented move, burned the black flag of Al-Shabab
which has two crossed swords, Saudi- style, and the inscription La Illah
Illa Allah, Mohamed Rasul Allah (There is no God but God, Mohamed is God's
Messenger). Somali Prime Minister Sharmarke has publicly protested against
the atrocities allegedly committed by Al-Shabab, in particular incurring the
wrath of militant Islamists in the country. "What is so startling is that
all the conclusions are as true about Somalia as they are about
Afghanistan," Sharmake warned. Recent clashes demonstrate realignments not
to Sharmake's liking.
Sufi-inspired groups that have taken up arms against Al-Shabab in the past
have recently joined forces in effect with them against the forces of the
TFG and the AU peacekeepers. The Sufi militia Ahl Al-Sunna Wal-Jamaa now
controls the strategic Golgadud Region of central Somalia. Their leader
Mahmoud Sheikh Hassan this week declared that Ahl Al-Sunna Wal-Jamaa has
discarded the 7 May agreement in Addis Ababa, Ethiopia, with the TFG.
Sharmarke and the TFG were hoping -- in vain -- to make political capital
out of the divisions among the Islamists. Their house of cards has
collapsed.
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