From: Berhane Habtemariam (Berhane.Habtemariam@gmx.de)
Date: Sat Jun 12 2010 - 18:12:42 EDT
<http://www.ethiopianreview.com/content/28160> Meles heading for Asmara? -
ION
June 12th, 2010 | |
<http://www.ethiopianreview.com/content/28160#comments> 15 Comments
http://www.ethiopianreview.com/content/28160
The Indian Ocean Newsletter (ION), whose sources include French intelligence
officials, has just published an analysis of what is next for the Meles
regime in Ethiopia. The ION agrees with Ethiopian Review's prediction that
the genocidal regime is now setting its sight on Asmara after emptying the
rubber stamp parliament in Addis Ababa of any opposition. The following is
posted from the current edition of ION:
Zenawi wants to turn the page on 2005
For Several months genocidal dictator Meles Zenawi has been actively
working to protect his position in the 23 May general election to turn the
page on the insult in 2005 when the opposition won the poll in the capital.
He succeeded beyond his hopes: the turnout was reported to be a massive 90%
of the 32 million electors registered, with 95% of them voting for an EPRDF
(governing coalition) candidate. The opposition was annihilated by this
vote. The federal parliament was already a chamber to rubber-stamp
government decisions; it will now become a place where no voice of discord
is tolerated. The systematic intimidation of opponents and the widespread
usage of State institutions and funds for the EPRDF election campaign are
the main reasons explaining this outcome. Nevertheless, by closing the door
on the legal opposition, Meles Zenawi is de facto putting his regime on
track for a one-party State. The only people to be pleased by the outcome
will be the armed opposition, which thus sees the justification of its
prediction that any attempt at legal change in Ethiopia is doomed to
failure.
Dr Jekyll and Mr Hyde
Sophisticated and suave when he is in international circles, a supporter of
the free-market when it comes to the economy, Meles Zenawi has remained very
inflexible on matters of domestic policy. He has been reinforced in this
view by his experience in the 2005 election, when he found that giving
lee-way to the opposition mainly profited the latter. Since then, he has
constantly repeated that he would not renew the experience and putting his
money where his mouth is, has done all he could to restrict the opposition's
political space. International donors are generally little aware of this
"dark" side of the Ethiopian prime minister, which regularly makes its
appearance in meetings among EPRDF dignitaries that he generally chairs in
an authoritarian manner. In one of them, at the beginning of May, attended
by several ministers (Addisu Legesse, seyoum Mesfin, Bereket Simon, Tefera
Walwa, and others), he accused the legal opposition parties (Medrek and
OFDM) of being infiltrated by illegal organizations (Ginbot 7, OLF, EPRP)
and had called for them to be investigated. He even went so far as to say
the same about ANDM (the Amhara component of the EPRDF), some thing which
Tefera Walwa opposed stating that the difference between Meles Zenawi's TPLF
and ANDM did not mean the latter was an opposition Trojan horse.
Intimidated and humiliated opponents
Since the vote on 23 May, the prime minister has threatened everyone who
dared to criticize the conditions and results of the general election. In
his view, the warning is equally valid for the opposition leaders and for
European Union observers. The African Union observers as usual had nothing
to report on the elections they observe. Anyone considering calling for the
vote to be invalidated was warned that he risks imprisonment. But on the
other hand, Meles is fully aware that the non-re-election of most of the
opposition leaders will give his regime a major problem. Consequently,
secret negotiations are underway to give the opposition a handful of seats.
EPRDF representatives contacted Merera Gudina to promise him a recount and
to be elected to parliament if he distanced himself from the other
opponents. He has so far declined this offer. A post in government was
similarly promised to Lidetu Ayalew. For his part, fearing arrest, Beyene
Petros asked during a Medrek meeting on 24 May that the opposition coalition
no contest any election results until they have sufficient evidence of
irregularities.
Heading for Asmara
Meles Zenawi will no doubt not leave matters there. He will try to push home
his advantage, not only against the legal opposition but also against the
various Ethiopian rebel groups that are waging sporadic armed struggle
against his regime (OLF, ONLF), backed by Eritrea. That is probably the
reason the EPRDF leaders keep insisting at the moment that an Eritrean
opposition conference that had been on the cards for years should finally be
held in Addis Ababa in July. Their idea is to put the conditions in place as
soon as possible that could lead to a future overthrow of President Isaias
Afwerki.
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