From: Berhane Habtemariam (Berhane.Habtemariam@gmx.de)
Date: Tue Jul 06 2010 - 14:16:57 EDT
ANALYSIS-Sudan faces split into two one-party states
Tue Jul 6, 2010 9:23am GMT
By Andrew Heavens
KHARTOUM July 6 (Reuters) - An internationally brokered peace deal that was
supposed to transform Sudan into a unified democracy could be about to split
Africa's largest country into two one-party states.
In six months time, people from Sudan's oil-producing south are due to vote
in a referendum on whether they should secede and form Africa's newest
nation -- a plebiscite promised under a 2005 accord that ended decades of
north-south civil war.
Most analysts say south Sudan's poverty-stricken population, traumatised by
the conflict and years of perceived northern exploitation, are likely to
vote 'yes' for independence.
Many are already looking beyond the referendum to work out what an
independent south -- and a newly separated north -- might look like. The
political prognosis is not good, particularly following elections in April
when opposition groups say the main northern and southern parties stamped
out competition with intimidation and fraud.
Campaign group Human Rights Watch said it collected reports of harassment,
arbitrary arrests and attacks on opposition figures, activists and
journalists during and since the elections on both sides of the north-south
border.
"The actions of the two main parties (in the north and the south) do not
bode well for democratic governance after the referendum," said group
researcher Tiseke Kasambala.
The domination of the two main parties was confirmed in the April elections
-- the north's National Congress Party (NCP), led by president Omar Hassan
al-Bashir, took most seats in Khartoum's national assembly while the south's
Sudan People's Liberation Movement (SPLM), won almost every seat in the
semi-autonomous southern parliament.
Both parties last month strengthened their hold still further when they
announced new cabinets in Khartoum and the southern capital Juba including
only a handful of largely token opposition voices.
The results came as a reality check to the ambitions set out in the 2005
Comprehensive Peace Agreement.
Under the accord witnessed by Washington, London and other powers, both
sides promised to campaign to make unity attractive to their populations and
to bring about the "democratic transformation" of Sudan through elections
and reforms.
BACK SEAT
"Sudan is now better classified as a two-party state where democracy takes a
back seat to the authoritarian regimes that control their respective
regions. Opposition parties throughout the entire country now hold less than
five percent of the seats in the National Assembly," academic Marc Gustafson
wrote in an analysis of the results on the blog Making Sense of Sudan.
If all goes as expected in the referendum, that two-party state would become
two one-party states.
Both parties say their election victories, were built on genuine popular
support. "The cabinet was formed according to the result of the election,"
said NCP official Rabie Abdelati.
"The majority of southerners are convinced that it was the SPLM that brought
them the referendum. It is the only organisation that can take them to the
referendum," said senior SPLM official Yasir Arman. He said the party was
investigating reports of abuses and did lose a number of seats to opposition
figures in the poll.
But opposition parties say the poll was rigged. "They are not interested (in
sharing power). In particular the NCP. Both of them, they are looking after
their own interests," said vice president of the opposition Umma group
Fadlalla Burma Nasir.
There is more at stake than the principle of multi-party politics. There are
also implications for the security of the country and the surrounding
region.
Sudan has long been plagued by rebellions and civil conflicts, most of them
launched by marginalised groups in the country's peripheries -- most
recently Darfur in the west -- challenging the dominance of the central
power. Many of those fights have spread to destabilise Sudan's neighbours
and disrupted companies working in the oil sector.
Oil could be one of the main flashpoints after a north-south split. Most of
Sudan's proven oil reserves are found in the south, but are funnelled
through northern pipelines to reach Port Sudan on the Red Sea. Northern and
southern leaders have still not reached an agreement on how revenues would
be divided.
Both parties will have to make serious reforms in they want to avoid a
repeat of the conflicts of the past, said Fouad Hikmat of the International
Crisis Group
"They (the NCP and the SPLM) have to look into political pluralism ... There
needs to be serious political reform in the north and the south if they want
to be stable."
And stability is no small thing for a country possibly heading towards
separation. The historical precedents are far from encouraging.
"In history there are so many examples of the separation of a united country
resulting in war," said Ibrahim el-Senoussi of the Islamist opposition
Popular Congress Party, whose leader was released from a six-week detention
last week.
"Pakistan and India and Bangladesh, Eritrea and Ethiopia and other
countries. The same is going to be repeated." (Editing by Giles Elgood)
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