From: Biniam Tekle (biniamt@dehai.org)
Date: Mon Jul 12 2010 - 08:29:48 EDT
http://www.time.com/time/world/article/0,8599,2003120,00.html
Are Somali Militants Behind the Uganda Blasts?
By Alex Perry Monday, Jul. 12, 2010
If, as expected, it turns out to have been Somali Islamic militants who
carried out a twin suicide bombing in the Ugandan capital Kampala on Sunday
night — killing 64, many as they watched the World Cup final — that will be
lethal confirmation of the group's long-threatened ambitions to spread their
terror beyond Somalia's borders.
Simultaneous explosions tore through crowds watching the Spain-Netherlands
game at a rugby club, where 49 people died, and hit patrons at an Ethiopian
restaurant, where 15 were killed. A spokesman for the Ugandan government
said vests and body parts at the scenes indicated the work of suicide
bombers. The U.S. embassy in Kampala confirmed that one American was among
the dead at the restaurant. A church group from Pennsylvania were inside at
the time, according to Associated Press, and several Americans were among
the scores of wounded.
(See pictures of the front lines in the war on the Taliban.)
Kampala's police chief, Kale Kaihura, said he suspected Somalia's extremist
al Shabaab group were behind the bombings. While al Shabaab is a fragmented
organization, and no one leader speaks for all its factions, Sheikh Mohammed
Ali, spokesman for al Shabaab in Kismayo, the main city in al Shabaab's
heartland in southern Somalia, tells TIME: "This is the work of mujahedin.
We were happy with those guys who did that, God will reward them." Ali did
not confirm that al Shabaab was responsible for the attacks, but he did say
the bombings were in response to calls in the region for a stronger
international force to intervene in Somalia's ongoing civil war, he said.
"Ethiopia and Uganda and Burundi and Kenya are our number one enemies," he
continued. "They have surrounded us and they are planning to attack Somali
soil. We assure them that we shall attack them on their soil." He added the
group had previously planned an attack on Entebbe airport, outside Kampala,
but "unfortunately last year it was unsuccessful."
Al Shabaab's involvement in Sunday's attacks seems likely. Last year, al
Shabaab announced its alliance to al-Qaeda. The group repeatedly threatens
death to Americans, Ugandans and Burundians, who make up the bulk of the
African Union peacekeeping force in Mogadishu, and Ethiopians, who invaded
Somalia in 2006. No other group in East Africa has the capacity to carry out
such an attack — and at the start of the World Cup, al Shabaab threatened to
execute anyone caught watching broadcasts of the tournament in Mogadishu,
which it deemed frivolous Western entertainment. "Al Shabaab has telegraphed
their intention to do something like this, and people have been anticipating
something of this order for a while," said one Western intelligence
operative.
(See pictures of a Jihadist's journey.)
Islamic militants have operated in Somalia for as long as the Taliban has in
Afghanistan, and there are broad similarities between the two. Both sets of
militants offer the imposition of strict Sharia law as the solution to
countries beset by lawlessness and feuding warlords. Both also welcome
al-Qaeda as a guest in their countries and allowed the group to set up bases
from which to launch attacks on the U.S., including the bombing of American
embassies in Kenya and Tanzania in 1998 — which killed more than 200 — and
9/11.
The al Shabaab group, however, is a more recent phenomenon. It was
originally the armed wing of a group calling itself the Islamic Courts Union
(ICU), which briefly ruled Somalia in 2006. The ICU included moderate and
extremist members, and after the extremists declared a jihad against its
Ethiopian neighbor, Ethiopia invaded in late 2006, toppling the ICU and
helping install in Mogadishu the Transitional Federal Government (TFG),
Somalia's internationally recognized government which, until then, had
largely existed only in exile. Al Shabaab became the primary resistance
force in Somalia and the Ethiopians eventually withdrew in 2009 after
fighting a bloody insurgency against its soldiers. Since then, lawlessness
has prevailed across Somalia, and a deadly stalemate holds in Mogadishu, as
al Shabaab and other Islamic groups battle African Union peacekeepers and
the TFG.
(See more on Somalia.)
Al Shabaab has also become ever more extreme, regularly using suicide
bombers. Western intelligence operatives and diplomats in the region add
that this is related to the group's increasingly international makeup —
leadership and strategy is now in the hands of foreign militants,
particularly veterans of Iraq, Pakistan and Afghanistan, and ethnic Somalis
from the U.S. — and ambitions. In October 2008, the group killed around 30
people in a series of bomb blasts in Somaliland. Last September, the U.S.
shut down its embassy in Pretoria and three other consulates in South Africa
after intercepting a phone call from an al Shabaab figure in Mogadishu to
supporters in Cape Town in which an attack on the U.S. in South Africa was
discussed.
So what of the international response? Ethiopia's invasion, which after
initial success quickly became a bloody quagmire, cautions against a repeat.
Until now, the U.S. has confined itself to attacks against individual
leaders of al Shabaab, using missiles fired from battle ships offshore or
drones and, once, attack helicopters. Ugandan President Yoweri Museveni,
however, proposes far tougher action and, according to Western intelligence
operatives, has readied an invasion plan.
White House spokesman Tommy Vietor said the U.S. was prepared to provide any
necessary assistance to Uganda. President Barack Obama was "deeply saddened
by the loss of life resulting from these deplorable and cowardly attacks,"
he said. U.S. Secretary of State Hillary Clinton added: "The United States
stands with Uganda. We ... will work with them to bring the perpetrators of
this crime to justice." Somali President Sheikh Sharif Ahmed condemned the
"evil and ugly nature of the perpetrators" and added: "Neither the region
nor the international community will tolerate the spread of insecurity."
However, it could be that al Shabaab is trying to provoke just such an
escalation. "It's a risky move on the part of al Shabaab because it most
likely will precipitate some kind of a fairly firm response from Museveni —
if [Uganda responds] in a robust way, this could be a very significant blow
to al Shabaab's military capacity," says E.J. Hogendoorn, Horn of Africa
analyst with the International Crisis Group. "But if they respond in an
indiscriminate manner, it could actually galvanize a Somali response against
AMISOM [the African Union peacekeeping force] and play into the hands of the
al Shabaab."
(See more on the rise of extremism in Somalia.)
A Western intelligence operative adds that al Shabaab will be hoping for a
"disproportionate response." The primary challenges of Somalia, he says, are
to create a stable political center and to fight a counter-insurgency
against al Shabaab. A stronger display of foreign force — what the analyst
calls "going kinetic" — would be a "misreading."
— With reporting by Nick Wadhams / Nairobi
Read more:
http://www.time.com/time/world/article/0,8599,2003120,00.html#ixzz0tTEIuxZH
----[This List to be used for Eritrea Related News Only]----