From: Biniam Tekle (biniamt@dehai.org)
Date: Mon Jul 12 2010 - 08:58:18 EDT
http://af.reuters.com/article/ugandaNews/idAFLDE66B0HW20100712?sp=true
ANALYSIS-Uganda
blast: Signs point to Somali war blowback
Mon Jul 12, 2010 11:58am GMT
* Somalia's al Qaeda-allied al Shabaab is top suspect
* Al Shabaab made threats against peacekeeping states
* Probe may focus on group's foreign al Qaeda militants
By William Maclean, Security Correspondent
LONDON, July 12 (Reuters) - Devastating bombings in Uganda are likely to
have been the work of al Qaeda-allied Somali militants seeking to wreck a
regional challenge to their growing hold on the failed Horn of Africa state.
The top suspect in the Sunday night blasts that killed 64 among World Cup
soccer fans in Kampala is the Somali armed group al Shabaab. Analysts say
that if that turns out to be the case, then this will have been its first
foreign strike.
The change of tactics, the theory goes, would have been decided in order to
press home in the most dramatic way the group's opposition to an African
Union peacekeeping mission it sees as Western-inspired.
A Western intelligence source said it was reasonable to see the force as the
top suspect, in part because it had threatened Uganda for its participation
in the African mission to end Somalia's two decades of war, chaos and
periodic famine.
"Shabaab is clearly no longer a parochial threat," said Henry Wilkinson, of
Janusian Security consultants in London.
"It's potentially a very important development because the attack, if it was
carried out by them, shows they can strike far away from their operational
centre of gravity."
The possibility of al Shabaab's involvement is especially worrying since the
group contains several al Qaeda men who have contributed to the global
network's anti-Western campaign.
OPPORTUNISTIC
These include high profile al Qaeda suspects like Fazul Abdullah Mohammed,
indicted for his alleged role in the 1998 Kenya and Tanzania U.S. embassy
bombings that killed 240 people.
Anna Murison of Exclusive Analysis said the attack's targeting appeared
consistent with al Shabaab's methods and aims, one of which is resolute
opposition to Ethiopia, Somalia's large neighbour and perennial foe.
"The targeting of an Ethiopian restaurant full of foreigners also reinforces
this idea - 3 targets in 1 really - Ethiopia, Uganda and the United States,"
she said.
The bombings may complicate efforts to strengthen the African Union
peacekeeping mission in Somalia known as AMISOM.
"You're not going to see countries rushing to volunteer for AMISON after
this," said Gus Selassie, a London-based analyst with IHS Global Insight.
Al Shabaab had been warning Uganda and Burundi to desist from involvement in
Somalia, and Uganda had sometimes appeared dismissive of the threat, he
said.
Somalia expert Sally Healy, an Associate Fellow at Britain's Chatham House
think tank, said she expected the attack to increase anxiety about al
Shabaab and the situation in Somalia both in the region and in the
international community.
FOREIGN MILITANTS
There was no doubt that al Shabaab regarded AMISOM as an enemy force and had
carried out suicide missions against it.
"It is perceived -- accurately -- as a largely Ugandan force and acting in
the interests of Ethiopia, the United States and the west generally," she
said.
Experts will now be trying to determine to what extent the apparent change
of tactics in striking abroad reflects the influence of foreign militants in
al Shabaab's ranks.
An International Crisis Group (ICG) report on al Shabaab issued in May said
increasingly influential foreign jihadists in the group were now a key
driver of the Somali conflict.
"Their belligerence, fanatical attachment to an uncompromising brand of
politics and extremist theology is seriously undermining, if not thwarting,
any potential chances for finding a political settlement."
It said real power in the force was vested in a small group of foreign
jihadis who were the driving force "behind al Shabaab's ideological drift to
the far extreme".
The report named the following individuals as the most important foreign
militants in al Shabaab.
-- Fazul Abdullah Mohammed (Comoros Islands), described by ICG as "commander
in chief of al Shabaab".
-- Sheikh Mohamed Abu Faid (Saudi-born), financier and manager of al
Shabaab.
-- Abu Suleiman Al-Banadiri (Somali of Yemeni descent), an adviser to al
Shabaab leader Ahmed Abdi Godane.
-- Abu Musa Mombasa (Pakistan), recently arrived to replace Saleh Ali
Nabhan, killed in U.S. military operation in Sept 2009, in al Shabaab
security and training;
-- Abu Mansur Al-Amriki (U.S.), finance of foreign fighters;
-- Mohamoud Mujajir (Sudan), recruitment of suicide bombers;
-- Abdifatah Aweys Abu Hamsa (Somali national trained in Afghanistan),
commander of the Mujahidin of Al-Quds. (Editing by Giles Elgood)
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