From: Berhane Habtemariam (Berhane.Habtemariam@gmx.de)
Date: Mon Jul 12 2010 - 10:15:17 EDT
Uganda bombings: Why the world should care
July 12, 2010 -- Updated 1206 GMT (2006 HKT)
* Suspicion growing that Somali militants killed dozens of people in
Uganda
* Uganda possibly targeted because of its activities in Somalia
* Al-Shabaab has issued previous threats against Uganda
* Analysts say there could be global implications for businesses
across Africa
(CNN) -- Suspicion was growing Monday that a Somali militant group trying to
overthrow the U.N.-backed transitional government in that country was to
blame for attacks that killed dozens of people in Uganda.
Analyst Alex Vines, from London-based think tank Chatham House, told CNN
that if Al-Shabaab did carry out the attacks there could be global
implications as countries and businesses vie for opportunities across
Africa.
Q: Why is Uganda important?
Vines: Historically it's been important for the export of coffee and fish
out of Lake Victoria, but now oil has been found, Uganda could become a
significant, if not major, oil exporter. So there's much international
interest, and not just western. The deal that's been struck with Tullow Oil
looks as if it'll be farmed out to the French company Total and the Chinese
state oil company CNOOC. So these attacks in Uganda could have global
implications for business, be they Chinese or Western.
Q: Will they deter investors?
Vines: I think investors will do a stricter risk assessment and practice due
diligence. They will look at where they think it's safe for their workers to
go and advise them to be careful when socializing at night, but I don't
think it will stop investment at all.
Q: Does Uganda have a history of violence?
Vines: Uganda has had a low-intensity conflict linked to the Lords
Resistance Army (LRA), of Joseph Kony, but this has been much subdued in
recent years. There have been recent acts of random terrorism in Kampala but
nothing like that seen last night.
(United Nations humanitarian chief Jan Egeland has described the 20-year
conflict in northern Uganda between government forces and the LRA as the
most neglected humanitarian crisis in the world. Kony has said he wants to
rule Uganda according to the Ten Commandments but the LRA campaign has been
marked by brutality, including the abduction of many school children with
girls forced to be sex slaves and boys pressed into the guerrilla army.)
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Q: Uganda is on the U.N. Security Council and is going to play a more global
role as U.S. and other countries want to impose sanctions on countries like
Iran and North Korea. Is Uganda's international role the reason it's been
targeted?
Vines: Al-Shabaab are the leading point of inquiry because of its previous
threats against Uganda and because of its contributions to the African Union
Mission in Somalia (AMISOM) and the presence of the EU training mission in
Mogadishu.
I think Uganda has been targeted for these bombings because of its
activities in Somalia. Uganda is on the Security Council but it is going to
step down at the end of this year. So that's a transitory issue. Uganda
certainly sees itself as playing a regional role: President Museveni was
instrumental in pushing for U.N. sanctions on Eritrea that came into force
earlier this year so clearly he has many enemies as well as friends.
Q: What are the implications of the attacks?
Vines: If radical Islamist group Al-Shabaab is involved, this will be its
first attack outside Somalia. If this is true the bombings will show it has
the capability against soft targets outside Somalia. Also it's important to
understand Somalia isn't a monolithic, single state. There's extreme
violence in the south of the country but north of Mogadishu and in an area
called Somaliland it's been pretty stable. In fact in Somaliland recently
there's been an election with what looks like the peaceful transition of the
head of state of that area. So this is a complicated region for sure.
Q: Is there any possibility of peace in Somalia?
Vines: The West's policy is to support the transitional government in
Mogadishu but it only controls a few streets. The part of Somalia around
Mogadishu and to the south is controlled by Al-Shabaab, who do not recognize
the transitional government and want to impose a strict Islamist code. My
own personal view is that rather than ignoring al-Shabaab we should be
discussing with them what they want.
And in that way it's similar to the situation in Afghanistan with the
Taliban ... the debate going there about whether one must engage with them
rather than just fight them. The country remains very vulnerable and reliant
on AU peacekeeping forces and AMISOM, which is what Uganda is part of, and I
think that's why Uganda was attacked.
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