From: Berhane Habtemariam (Berhane.Habtemariam@gmx.de)
Date: Wed Jul 14 2010 - 17:14:46 EDT
Analysis: A guide to Abyei's referendum
JUBA, 14 July 2010 (IRIN) - It looks like a simple enough issue: whether a
pocket of land in the middle of Sudan is part of the north or the south. But
the Abyei question is key to lasting peace in the country.
The last time the area's residents were denied the right - enshrined in a
1972 peace accord - to make the choice themselves, the backlash helped push
the country back into civil war.
Now, some three decades later, and five years after a new peace accord was
signed, they are finally set to hold a referendum on their political future.
There is much to be done before the vote, scheduled for 9 January 2011 (the
same day Southern Sudan votes on secession from the north) can take place.
And tension is running high. On 5 July, some 3,000
<http://www.irinnews.org/Report.aspx?ReportId=89764> Abyei residents
demonstrated to demand the formation of the commission that will oversee the
referendum and on demarcating the area's borders, as
<http://www.irinnews.org/Report.aspx?ReportId=85384> defined by an
international court in July 2009.
The same day, five people died in clashes that followed an alleged attack by
gunmen from the Misseriya community, which is worried about access to
pasture in Abyei and further south.
Here is some key information about Abyei's referendum:
The Question
Although the exact wording of the referendum question has yet to be defined,
voters will be asked to decide whether to retain Abyei's special
administrative status in the north or become part of Southern Sudan,
irrespective of the outcome of the south's own referendum on secession. The
result of the referendum will be determined by a simple majority of votes
cast.
This special status was defined by the
<http://www.sudanarchive.net/cgi-bin/sudan?e=--and-TX-cpa-1025-10-1-0-cpa&a=
d&cl=search&d=Dl1d36> 2005 Comprehensive Peace Accord (CPA) that ended the
last phase of civil war. Scheduled to last until July 2011, it grants Abyei
residents joint citizenship of two of Sudan's regional states, one in the
north, the other in the south. It also calls for the area to be governed by
an Executive Council, with members appointed by the joint national
presidency until an election is held. Abyei residents are still waiting to
cast their votes in such an election.
With the two simultaneous referendums, there are four possible outcomes for
Abyei's future:
- Retention of special status in a united Sudan, where the terms of that
status could be changed by the joint presidency;
- Retention of special status in a Sudan from which the south has seceded
and therefore given up its (presidential) role in Abyei's administration;
- Integration into the south in a united Sudan, with its administrative
status to be determined by the government of Southern Sudan
- Integration into a nascent independent state of Southern Sudan, which
would determine Abyei's status and negotiate citizenship issues with
Khartoum.
The Commission
Under the CPA and the
<http://www.irinnews.org/pdf/GOS_Abyei_Referendum_Act_2009.pdf> Abyei
Referendum Act, members of an Abyei Area Referendum Commission were supposed
to be appointed as soon as the Act came into force, which happened when
President Omar El Basher signed it on 31 December 2009. As of the time of
writing (14 July), the commission had not been established. Neither had a
promised court, where any complaints about the referendum could be raised.
The commission's main duties are to conduct civic education (in an area with
little mass media); prepare the voters' register; determine residency
criteria (see below); set out the referendum's rules of procedure, including
the role of observers; and organize the ballot together with the Abyei Area
Administration, the Khartoum government and the government of Southern
Sudan, under international observation.
The Voters
Eligibility is still a grey area. Under the referendum Act and the
<http://www.aec-sudan.org/docs/cpa/cpa_05abyei.doc> CPA protocol on Abyei,
eligible voters include residents of Abyei area, namely "members of the Ngok
Dinka community" and "other Sudanese residing in Abyei Area in accordance
with the criteria of residency, as may be determined by the Commission".
But since the commission has not been established, these crucial criteria
remain to be determined.
The Border
A year after the Permanent Court of Arbitration (PCA)
<http://www.pca-cpa.org/upload/files/Abyei%20Award%20Appendix%201.pdf>
defined Abyei's border there has been little progress in its demarcation.
The Sudan People's Liberation Movement (SPLM), the former rebel movement now
in power in Southern Sudan, has complained that its members of a joint
demarcation team feel threatened by armed militia elements, which the SPLM
claims are sponsored by Khartoum.
Any group wishing to delay or sabotage the referendum might try to make a
case that demarcation is a prerequisite to the vote.
Abyei's <http://www.irinnews.org/Report.aspx?ReportId=89764> chief
administrator has accused Misseriya groups of moving into the area,
displacing Ngok Dinka residents.
Grazing rights
The right of the Misseriya to seasonally graze their cattle in Abyei,
regardless of the referendum's result, was enshrined in the Abyei Protocol
and reaffirmed in the 2009 border ruling. But the failure to explain this
clearly to people on the ground has led to fears that these rights,
essential to the survival of the pastoralists, might be lost if Abyei goes
to the south, resulting in the kind of tension that contributed to the
recent violence.
Security
Under the CPA, troops from north and south Sudan - enemies in the civil war
- were supposed to team up in Joint Integrated Units (JIUs). Across the
country's borderlands, but particularly in Abyei, the JIU initiative has met
with many problems.
In May 2008, clashes between the two JIU contingents displaced tens of
thousands of people from the town of Abyei, which suffered extensive damage.
JIUs are supposed to be disbanded when the CPA interim period expires in
July 2011 but details of what will happen to the troops and about how
security will be provided in Abyei have yet to be worked out.
mf/eo-am/cb
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