From: Biniam Tekle (biniamt@dehai.org)
Date: Tue Jul 20 2010 - 08:37:04 EDT
7/20/2010
http://www.theglobeandmail.com/news/opinions/the-pen-is-mightier-than-the-gun-depends/article1645197/
David Cameron The pen is mightier than the gun? Depends
The pen is mightier than the gun? Depends
Anthony Jenkins/The Globe and Mail
Somalia is trying to kick-start a peace process. Will it work? It’s
difficult to imagine things getting much worse
David Cameron
>From Tuesday's Globe and Mail
Somalia is in the midst of a bold experiment: to see whether the development
of a new constitution can help to bring peace to a country in desperate
straits. Mired in violence and civil disorder, Somalia is No. 1 on the
Failed States Index of Foreign Policy/The Fund for Peace. Pretty much the
only thing Somalia is known for these days is radical dysfunction. A new
democratic constitution? You’ve got to be joking.
Somalia’s Transitional Federal Government has been in place since 2004, but
it doesn’t even control the capital city, Mogadishu, and its capacity to
survive without the support of 5,000 African Union troops is slight to
non-existent. Civil war continues, and major chunks of the country are under
the control of al-Shabab, a radical Islamic movement that recently displayed
its willingness to export terror to neighbouring countries by killing more
than 75 people in Uganda. Pirates ply their trade with impunity off the
Somali coast.
Somaliland, a breakaway region in the northwestern part of the country, has
enjoyed de facto independence for close to 20 years; it has held successful
elections and operates in relative peace. Somaliland wants no part of the
constitutional process – or of Somalia, for that matter – seeking, instead,
recognition from the AU and the international community as an independent
state. Puntland, a Somali region in the northeast, is also relatively safe
and stable; willing to be an active part of a new Somalia, it’s watching
this constitutional process with interest, but is in no position to
determine the outcome.
In short, no one’s in charge. So this seems far from being Somalia’s
constitutional moment, despite the fact that one of the opposition forces
joined the transitional government in 2009. Usually, one might expect that a
constitution would follow a peace process, not precede it, or that the
process of constitutional negotiation would itself be an instrument for
ending violence and making peace. But, so far, the Somalian constitutional
exercise has involved only fragments of the political forces whose
involvement will be necessary to establish a broad new social compact and
the constitutional agreement that would be its legitimate expression.
Yet, with the vigorous support of the United Nations, the transitional
government has established the Independent Federal Commission on the
Constitution (IFCC) to come up with a new constitutional design; the 30 or
so members have been labouring over the past few months to produce a draft
constitution – ensconced in Djibouti, north of Somalia, because it’s too
dangerous to do the work in their own country. A UN Development Program team
is supporting them, and the UN is underwriting the costs.
The IFCC has produced an impressive document – a draft constitution plus
explanatory narrative – that is now being sent out to the country for
reaction. Based on *sharia* (Islamic law), the constitution has strong
human-rights provisions, including those for gender equality (the
requirement of female representation in key national institutions, the
banning of female genital mutilation and the acceptance of abortion if the
woman’s life is in danger). It also proposes a federal system, with
significant power being allocated to yet-to-be-created regional states.
Now comes the public consultation, a fraught and dangerous business. The
simple act of discussing this document could be enough to mark you as a
target. So radio will be heavily used to get the word out and to provide a
venue, and some thought has been given to producing a small, pocket-sized
version of the document that people will be able to hide when they’re out in
public.
In September or October, the IFCC plans to assess public reaction and, on
that basis, produce a final version of the constitution, which will be put
to a referendum in the spring of 2011. If the proposed constitution is
supported by the people, the plan is to begin implementing it as the law of
the land, with a general election to follow. By 2012 or so, if all goes
according to plan, Somalia will have a bunch of shiny new governments, both
in Mogadishu and in the new regional states, whose authority will be
grounded in the new constitution and in democratic elections. A new Somalia
will have been born.
Will it work? Dispassionate analysis would say no. Is it worth a try?
Probably yes. After all, you don’t need to worry too much about breaching
the Hippocratic principle of “first do no harm.” It’s difficult to imagine
things getting much worse in Somali, no matter what you do. But could this
bold initiative actually do some good?
If I were looking for a glimmer of hope, it would be this: It will be the
first occasion in a very long time that Somali citizens will be consulted
about something, that they will be invited to become political actors,
instead of suffering victims. If the referendum happens and if the citizens
of that tragic country use the occasion to shout out loud and clear for an
end to violence, perhaps, just perhaps, they might be heard.
Since nothing else seems to have worked, perhaps it’s worth giving this a
try. That, possibly, is the calculation of the UN and of the Somali
constitutional commissioners who are putting their lives on the line in this
noble, but daunting, cause.
*David Cameron is a professor of political science at the University of
Toronto and a member of the board of the Ottawa-based Forum of Federations.
He recently returned from almost two weeks in Djibouti under the auspices of
the UNDP, supporting the Somali Independent Federal Constitutional
Commission in the development of its draft constitution.*
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