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From: Berhane Habtemariam (Berhane.Habtemariam@gmx.de)
Date: Sun Aug 08 2010 - 16:37:07 EDT
Sudan: Three Scenarios
08/08/2010
By Osman Mirghani
As the date for the South Sudan self-determination referendum draws near,
talk and debate are growing around the future of the largest Arab and
African country, and the 10th largest country in the world in terms of area.
While a comprehensive discussion is taking place both inside and outside
political circles in Sudan, many are observing the developments, especially
because what happens over the next few months will have significant
repercussions in the country and outside.
Many envisage a grim picture, and are fearful of the consequences if the
referendum process is delayed, or if it is held at a time when matters are
still unresolved. There are large and potentially volatile cases still
awaiting agreement, on issues ranging from border demarcation to the
division of natural resources such as oil and water. These issues, unless
they are agreed upon, could ignite a war now or in the future. There are of
course other issues, like the matter of Sudan's external debt, which
southern officials say they are not responsible for, considering it to be
the debt of the North. Additionally, there are issues relating to
nationality, and the fate of southerners currently living in the North, and
vice versa.
It is worth noting that after five years of the Comprehensive Peace
Agreement, which determined the date of the referendum, there are still many
unresolved problems. Even with regards to the referendum process, some
details are yet to be agreed upon, between the ruling National Congress in
the North, and the ruling People's Movement in the South. The referendum
office was not formed until a few weeks ago. This, if anything, indicates
that the concerned parties, especially in the north, did not believe or were
not originally convinced, that the country would be on the brink of
separation as the referendum approaches. Instead the government was
preoccupied with securing its position and strengthening its grip on power,
rather than securing the country and encouraging elements of unity. Thus
they have lost critical years through delays and political jockeying, whilst
the factors weakening unity have mounted up, and have accelerated the steps
towards separation.
The South, for their part, did not sit idly waiting for the 'gracious' North
to grant them equal unity, which has not been achieved from 1955, the date
of the first southern rebellion, until today. But even during the years of
peace between 1972 and 1983, and then between 2005 and 2010, conditions did
little to lessen the southern citizens' sense of injustice, and instill a
sense of full citizenship and equality. Therefore, it is not surprising to
hear lots of southerners talk about refusing to live as second class
citizens. During demonstrations in support of separation, that are almost
systematic in the South these days, they chant slogans such as "no to
slavery.yes to separation!", or "no to the confederation.yes to
independence!" and "goodbye to the North!".
These sentiments did not suddenly appear, they did not suddenly grow over
the past five years, but they are the result of a lengthy accumulation
dating back to the mid fifties. Perhaps they have intensified over the last
20 years, especially after the current government fuelled feelings of
hostility and division when it declared 'Jihad' [against southern Sudan in
1989], and sent young men and militias to fight under the banner of a
religious war. Many opportunities were lost during the last half century, in
a series of wars and incomplete peace. The 'south issue' became a pretext
for political maneuvers, which resulted in the manipulation of Sudan's fate.
Where are matters headed now?
In the next phase, there are three possible scenarios facing Sudan. Unity is
desirable but ultimately inconceivable, for wishing is one thing, reality is
something else. Secession is the second scenario, which is likely according
to all indicators and present facts. From reading and carefully following
the statements of many officials, or the words of the majority of educated
southerners, you realize that they are proceeding towards secession. The
southern government has implemented numerous steps indicating preparation
for its separation, whether by opening a number of representative offices
and consulates abroad, or by establishing a central bank, changing the
curriculum, and establishing the nucleus of air and naval forces.
The third scenario is the worst without doubt, for it is a return to war. If
war is renewed, it will be fiercer than ever before, and may succeed in
delaying the referendum, but will not prevent it. More seriously, it could
drag other areas into the sphere of conflict and separation. The war in the
South encouraged the outbreak of the war in Darfur, and contributed to the
emergence of armed movements in the east and other areas. There is nothing
to prevent the war from extending to new areas in the future, whether on the
North-South border lines, or beyond. Sudan borders nine countries, some of
which could interfere with its conflict, as has happened in the past and
will inevitably happen in the future.
Realists believe that the chance of southerners voting in the referendum for
unity is very small, especially with the prospect of secession as an
alternative. In a case such as this, the hope is that Sudan avoids a 'bloody
divorce', and that wisdom prevails amongst the North and South, leading to a
healthy future relationship. That will come if today's outstanding issues
are resolved, including establishing borders and clear revenue sharing
agreements in accordance with international views, before the date of the
referendum. Thus by creating a climate conducive to a future mutually
beneficial relationship between the two countries (if the South votes to
secede), there can be cooperation based on common interests and mutual
benefits. Time is running out and stalling will not solve problems, only
exacerbate them.
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