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From: Berhane Habtemariam (Berhane.Habtemariam@gmx.de)
Date: Sat Aug 14 2010 - 11:54:09 EDT
<http://thecable.foreignpolicy.com/posts/2010/08/13/as_tensions_boil_obama_s
_sudan_envoy_contemplates_kenya_post_0> As tensions boil, Obama's Sudan
envoy contemplates Kenya post
Posted By <http://thecable.foreignpolicy.com/blog/11505> Josh Rogin
http://www.foreignpolicy.com/images/091022_meta_block.gifFriday, August 13,
2010 - 3:21 PM http://www.foreignpolicy.com/images/091022_meta_block.gif
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President Obama's special envoy to Sudan, retired Maj. Gen. Scott Gration,
could be on his way to a new job in Kenya as the White House prepares a new
approach to Sudan ahead of a January referendum that analysts fear could
split the country into two separate nations -- or even spark a new civil
war.
The news comes in the wake of a contentious principals-level meeting at the
White House last week, in which Gration clashed openly with U.S. ambassador
to the U.N. Susan Rice over the direction of Sudan policy.
At the meeting, Rice was said to be "furious" when Gration proposed a plan
that makes the January referendum a priority, deemphasizes the ongoing
crisis in Darfur, and is devoid of any additional pressures on the
government in Khartoum.
According to multiple sources briefed on the meeting, Gration's plan was
endorsed by almost all the other participants, including Secretary of State
Hillary Clinton, and will now go the president for his approval. Rice was
invited to provide a written dissent. Vice President Joseph Biden did not
attend.
It wouldn't be the first battle Gration has won over how to deal with the
brutal regime of Omar Hassan al-Bashir, an indicted war criminal who has
driven his nation to ruin since coming to power in a 1989 military coup.
Gration advocates closer and more cooperative interactions with the ruling
National Congress Party, which he sees as the best way to influence its
behavior, along with a de-emphasis on public criticism of the regime's
deadly tactics.
The tension between Gration and Rice goes back to the early days of the
administration. In June 2009, ABC News
<http://blogs.abcnews.com/politicalpunch/2009/06/abc-newskirit-radia-reports
-special-envoy-to-sudan-scott-grations-comments-yesterday-that-darfur-is-exp
eriencing-only-the-r.html> reported that Rice, who has long advocated a
tougher line on Khartoum, was "furious" when Gration said that Darfur was
experiencing only the "remnants of genocide." The State Department quickly
confirmed that its official position is that genocide is ongoing.
Now, Gration's
<http://thecable.foreignpolicy.com/posts/2010/07/16/obama_s_sudan_envoy_bash
ir_indictment_makes_my_job_harder_1> penchant for gaffes and his poor
relations with communities of interest may have finally taken its toll,
observers say.
"The fact that he's being rotated out of this position suggests that he may
have won a number of battles but lost the war. If people were overwhelmingly
happy with his performance, it seems odd you would move him out to be
ambassador of a neighboring country," said John Norris, executive director
of the Enough Project, a leading Sudan anti-genocide advocacy organization.
Gration, who has been the administration's point man on Sudan for more than
a year, is currently considering taking the job of U.S. ambassador in
Nairobi, according to multiple sources both inside and outside the
administration. Discussions are ongoing and no formal offer has been made,
but as of one week ago Gration was said to be lobbying hard to keep his
Sudan portfolio if he moves to Kenya.
Gration has wanted to be envoy to Kenya for some time, according to multiple
administration sources. If he is successful in keeping his role in Sudan
policy, he would be hugely influential on three major Africa policy issues:
Sudan, Kenya, and Somalia, which is largely managed from the embassy in
Nairobi.
The more likely scenario is that if and when Gration is sent to Kenya --
assuming he passes a Senate confirmation process that will likely be
contentious -- he would have to relinquish the Sudan portfolio.
"The special envoy job is a full-time job, as is being ambassador to Kenya
during this crucial time," Norris said. "I can't imagine they would place
one person in charge of both."
One administration source said that the plan had been to nominate Gration
during the congressional recess, as to avoid a lengthy confirmation debate,
but that plan was no longer operative and Gration would be nominated and
confirmed through the usual process. Gration's office did not respond to a
request for comment.
Leading figures in the Sudan advocacy community have long been critical of
Gration, whom they see as too cozy with the Khartoum government and wholly
uninterested in applying additional pressures on Sudan's government in
response to rising violence.
When the administration
<http://www.state.gov/secretary/rm/2009a/10/130686.htm> rolled out its new
Sudan policy last October, Secretary Clinton promised that both carrots and
sticks would be used to influence Bashir's behavior. "Assessment of progress
and decisions regarding incentives and disincentives will be based on
verifiable changes in conditions on the ground. Backsliding by any party
will be met with credible pressure in the form of disincentives leveraged by
our government and our international partners," she said.
But though Sudan is under a variety of unilateral and multilateral
sanctions, the administration never publicly identified what additional
pressures it was bringing to bear. That, combined with Gration's statements
about the need to engage Khartoum positively, have led most observers to
conclude that no additional pressures were ever applied.
"During the last year and a half, we've seen increased violence in Darfur
and the deadliest months in five years, we saw an election that was
completely compromised without any resulting sanctions, we've seen a
deepening of the rifts that could cause a resumption of war between the
north and the south. None of these have elicited from the Obama
administration anything more than an occasional statement," said John
Prendergast, CEO of the Enough Project. "This has given a clear green light
to the regime in Khartoum to pursue its warmongering as usual. Gration has
overseen this policy."
Administration officials played down the conflict between Rice and Gration,
saying that such meetings are supposed to be deliberative. "This is a policy
debate. People often disagree. If they didn't, what's the point of having
the meeting?" one White House official said.
Regardless, for Sudan watchers, the hope is that the president will finally
weigh in and make his views known, to settle the internal debate.
"There's always going to be divisions inside an administration," said
Prendergast. "This is the first time you have a clear choice placed directly
in the hands of the president. It's time for him to step up."
Meanwhile, the world is bracing for an eruption in Southern Sudan. Khartoum
<http://www.istockanalyst.com/article/viewiStockNews/articleid/4398897> has
been caught fomenting violence between southern groups, agreements on
borders and revenue sharing are nonexistent, and the conduct of the last
election gives nobody confidence the referendum is on track.
Analysts worry that the international community and the U.S. in particular
are missing their last opportunity to prevent Bashir's government from
undermining the credibility of the referendum to a degree where armed
conflict would break out.
"Good diplomacy backed by serious pressure can potentially prevent this from
happening, but that's what's so disappointing; we have poor diplomacy with
almost no pressures whatsoever," said Prendergast. "It's a worst-case
scenario."
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