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From: Biniam Tekle (biniamt@dehai.org)
Date: Thu Aug 19 2010 - 09:33:54 EDT
http://www.thedailynewsegypt.com/index.php?option=com_content&view=article&id=122263&catid=1&Itemid=183
Analysis: Will political activity in Nile Basin countries affect the water
feud?
By Tamim Elyan / Special to Daily News Egypt August 18, 2010,
3:43 pm
CAIRO: A sweeping victory for Paul Kagame in Rwanda's presidential elections
last week preceded by a similar victory for President Pierre Nkurunziza in
Burundi sparked doubts over the future of the water treaty debacle amid
intense political activity in the Nile Basin countries.
Along with a major referendum in Kenya over a new constitution implementing
radical changes in the political structure of the country toward a
decentralized system of governance, the three events were hailed for
reinforcing stability in an economically promising region.
In Egypt, however, the outcome of such political activity throughout Nile
Basin countries is closely monitored to assess the impact elected policy
makers may have on the current feud over water shares.
As Tanzania awaits parliamentary and presidential elections in October
followed by Uganda in January 2011, familiar faces are expected to follow
Kagambe's footsteps and stay in power for another reign, said Attia Essawy,
African affairs expert at Al-Ahram Center for Political and Strategic
Studies.
"What matters for Egypt isn't who is in power but whether he will commit to
international treaties or not," Essawy said.
"Ethiopia is the main player since it controls 85 percent of water sources
and has been politically stable since 1995 under Prime Minister Meles
Zenawi; so the role the other six Nile Basin countries can play is minimal,"
he added.
Despite criticism over the lack of powerful opposition and exclusion of
several dissidents, Kagame earned his second consecutive reign as president
of Rwanda winning 93 percent of the votes against three other contenders in
what was described as "fair" elections.
In October, 44 million Tanzanians are set to participate in the country's
general elections to decide whether the Chama cha Mapinduzi (CCM) (Party of
the Revolution) headed by President Jakaya Kikwete will remain in power.
Pressure mounts on Kikwete ahead of the elections from voices demanding that
independent candidates are allowed to run in the elections based on a court
ruling that the government appealed against as well as the emergence of the
Chama Cha Jamii (CCJ) party formed of former CCM figures who chose to
distance themselves from the party.
In Uganda, Yoweri Museveni, in power since 1996, will have to face a
coalition of four opposition parties who will each hold primaries to pick a
candidate and then contest for the larger Inter-Party Cooperation ticket.
Last June, in boycotted elections by the opposition in Burundi, President
Pierre Nkurunziza's party — re-elected in the presidential poll a month
earlier — took 81 of the 106 seats being contested.
According to Mahmoud Aboul Enein, dean of the African Studies Institute at
Cairo University, old governments are capable more than others of
understanding the dimensions of the water problem and the importance of
relations with Egypt.
"However, it is an internal affair governed by people's choices and Egypt
should support this notion since the stability of these countries is in
Egypt's interest," Aboul Enein said.
Rwanda, Ethiopia, Uganda and Tanzania signed a new treaty on the equitable
sharing of the Nile waters despite strong opposition from Egypt and Sudan
who called on Nile Basin countries to abide by the 1929 and 1959 treaties
regarding water shares.
*Electoral propaganda*
According to Essawy, although the issue of Nile water was used in electoral
campaigns, the aim was to win voters by giving promises of restoring their
rights in Nile's water.
"Once elected, governments aren't capable of modifying the treaty or signing
new ones without the consent of Egypt and Sudan according to international
law," he said.
According to Essawy, three factors control the tempo of the Nile Water issue
in these countries and they do not include elected governments' policies.
First, the mounting need for electricity and food to face increasing
populations, 80 percent of which have no electricity and are in dire need
for development projects.
Second, the feeling among Nile Basin countries that water treaties were
forced on them during the colonial époque; although, this contradicts with a
basic principle in international relations implying that treaties signed
during the colonial era must not be changed or modified unless all signing
parties agree.
Third, external pressure from Israel convincing these countries that they
don't benefit from their own water in order to use them as a political card
in its Arab-Israeli conflict.
"Most of these countries depend on other water sources rather than the Nile
and the issue doesn't constitute a priority for the publics in these
countries," Aboul Enein said.
"They couldn't do anything since their independence 50 years ago because
these treaties are protected by international law," Essawy said.
*Foreign interference*
With various foreign sides involved in the region for political and economic
interests, candidates may be supported by foreign governments; however,
according to Essawy, neither Egypt nor Israel has the financial ability or
capacity to play this game.
"The US is interested in reformulating the regions' politics to serve its
corporate businesses operating in the fields of petroleum, uranium and other
strategic raw material and they have succeeded in doing this but the
Eritrean and Sudanese regimes remain," he said.
The White House National Security Council expressed in an official statement
concerns over "a series of disturbing events prior to the election" in
Rwanda including the suspension of two newspapers, the expulsion of a human
rights researcher, the barring of two opposition parties from taking part in
the election, and the arrest of journalists.
"The US created what is called the ‘new African block’ comprising Museveni,
Kagambe and Zenawi turning them into trade partners rather than aid
recipients and is using them to serve its own interests; however, the US'
agenda doesn't include water issues but terrorism and democracy," Aboul
Enein said.
However, Aboul Enein warned that although the US is not in favor of a crisis
in the Nile Basin, it may use the current feud to its own agenda creating a
new role for itself in the region.
*Sharing vs allotment*
Out of 1,570 billion cubic meters of Nile water, Egypt's share is roughly 87
billion cubic meters; 95 percent of the remaining water is wasted.
"Against pressure from these countries, Egypt responded by showing
flexibility in allowing the construction of dams for generating electricity
and offering international funding for local projects in return of excessive
water they don't need," Essawy said.
"However, the feeling that they have to terminate old water treaties forced
on them by the colonial powers remains the biggest hurdle in front of mutual
cooperation," he added.
According to Aboul Enein, the current situation isn't in favor of the people
of the region since neither Egypt nor Sudan will respond to pressures; in
fact, this may lead to international partners in development projects to
quit these projects.
"The best solution is the development of water resources rather than
adopting equitable sharing policies," he said.
By Tamim Elyan / Special to Daily News Egypt August 18, 2010, 3:43 pm
CAIRO: A sweeping victory for Paul Kagame in Rwanda's presidential elections
last week preceded by a similar victory for President Pierre Nkurunziza in
Burundi sparked doubts over the future of the water treaty debacle amid
intense political activity in the Nile Basin countries.
Along with a major referendum in Kenya over a new constitution implementing
radical changes in the political structure of the country toward a
decentralized system of governance, the three events were hailed for
reinforcing stability in an economically promising region.
In Egypt, however, the outcome of such political activity throughout Nile
Basin countries is closely monitored to assess the impact elected policy
makers may have on the current feud over water shares.
As Tanzania awaits parliamentary and presidential elections in October
followed by Uganda in January 2011, familiar faces are expected to follow
Kagambe's footsteps and stay in power for another reign, said Attia Essawy,
African affairs expert at Al-Ahram Center for Political and Strategic
Studies.
"What matters for Egypt isn't who is in power but whether he will commit to
international treaties or not," Essawy said.
"Ethiopia is the main player since it controls 85 percent of water sources
and has been politically stable since 1995 under Prime Minister Meles
Zenawi; so the role the other six Nile Basin countries can play is minimal,"
he added.
Despite criticism over the lack of powerful opposition and exclusion of
several dissidents, Kagame earned his second consecutive reign as president
of Rwanda winning 93 percent of the votes against three other contenders in
what was described as "fair" elections.
In October, 44 million Tanzanians are set to participate in the country's
general elections to decide whether the Chama cha Mapinduzi (CCM) (Party of
the Revolution) headed by President Jakaya Kikwete will remain in power.
Pressure mounts on Kikwete ahead of the elections from voices demanding that
independent candidates are allowed to run in the elections based on a court
ruling that the government appealed against as well as the emergence of the
Chama Cha Jamii (CCJ) party formed of former CCM figures who chose to
distance themselves from the party.
In Uganda, Yoweri Museveni, in power since 1996, will have to face a
coalition of four opposition parties who will each hold primaries to pick a
candidate and then contest for the larger Inter-Party Cooperation ticket.
Last June, in boycotted elections by the opposition in Burundi, President
Pierre Nkurunziza's party — re-elected in the presidential poll a month
earlier — took 81 of the 106 seats being contested.
According to Mahmoud Aboul Enein, dean of the African Studies Institute at
Cairo University, old governments are capable more than others of
understanding the dimensions of the water problem and the importance of
relations with Egypt.
"However, it is an internal affair governed by people's choices and Egypt
should support this notion since the stability of these countries is in
Egypt's interest," Aboul Enein said.
Rwanda, Ethiopia, Uganda and Tanzania signed a new treaty on the equitable
sharing of the Nile waters despite strong opposition from Egypt and Sudan
who called on Nile Basin countries to abide by the 1929 and 1959 treaties
regarding water shares.
Electoral propaganda
According to Essawy, although the issue of Nile water was used in electoral
campaigns, the aim was to win voters by giving promises of restoring their
rights in Nile's water.
"Once elected, governments aren't capable of modifying the treaty or signing
new ones without the consent of Egypt and Sudan according to international
law," he said.
According to Essawy, three factors control the tempo of the Nile Water issue
in these countries and they do not include elected governments' policies.
First, the mounting need for electricity and food to face increasing
populations, 80 percent of which have no electricity and are in dire need
for development projects.
Second, the feeling among Nile Basin countries that water treaties were
forced on them during the colonial époque; although, this contradicts with a
basic principle in international relations implying that treaties signed
during the colonial era must not be changed or modified unless all signing
parties agree.
Third, external pressure from Israel convincing these countries that they
don't benefit from their own water in order to use them as a political card
in its Arab-Israeli conflict.
"Most of these countries depend on other water sources rather than the Nile
and the issue doesn't constitute a priority for the publics in these
countries," Aboul Enein said.
"They couldn't do anything since their independence 50 years ago because
these treaties are protected by international law," Essawy said.
Foreign interference
With various foreign sides involved in the region for political and economic
interests, candidates may be supported by foreign governments; however,
according to Essawy, neither Egypt nor Israel has the financial ability or
capacity to play this game.
"The US is interested in reformulating the regions' politics to serve its
corporate businesses operating in the fields of petroleum, uranium and other
strategic raw material and they have succeeded in doing this but the
Eritrean and Sudanese regimes remain," he said.
The White House National Security Council expressed in an official statement
concerns over "a series of disturbing events prior to the election" in
Rwanda including the suspension of two newspapers, the expulsion of a human
rights researcher, the barring of two opposition parties from taking part in
the election, and the arrest of journalists.
"The US created what is called the ‘new African block’ comprising Museveni,
Kagambe and Zenawi turning them into trade partners rather than aid
recipients and is using them to serve its own interests; however, the US'
agenda doesn't include water issues but terrorism and democracy," Aboul
Enein said.
However, Aboul Enein warned that although the US is not in favor of a crisis
in the Nile Basin, it may use the current feud to its own agenda creating a
new role for itself in the region.
Sharing vs allotment
Out of 1,570 billion cubic meters of Nile water, Egypt's share is roughly 87
billion cubic meters; 95 percent of the remaining water is wasted.
"Against pressure from these countries, Egypt responded by showing
flexibility in allowing the construction of dams for generating electricity
and offering international funding for local projects in return of excessive
water they don't need," Essawy said.
"However, the feeling that they have to terminate old water treaties forced
on them by the colonial powers remains the biggest hurdle in front of mutual
cooperation," he added.
According to Aboul Enein, the current situation isn't in favor of the people
of the region since neither Egypt nor Sudan will respond to pressures; in
fact, this may lead to international partners in development projects to
quit these projects.
"The best solution is the development of water resources rather than
adopting equitable sharing policies," he said
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