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From: Berhane Habtemariam (Berhane.Habtemariam@gmx.de)
Date: Fri Aug 20 2010 - 09:58:38 EDT
How Did al-Shabab Emerge from the Chaos of Somalia?
By Nir <http://www.time.com/time/letters/email_letter.html> Rosen Friday,
Aug. 20, 2010
The concerns and agenda of Somalia's al-Shabab militia are very much rooted
in local politics. However, its rise to prominence is tied to decisions
taken by the U.S. and its regional allies in pursuit of the Bush
Administration's global war on terrorism.
Following the 9/11 attacks, the U.S. deemed the 10-year power vacuum in
Somalia a potential refuge for al-Qaeda, one that prompted Washington,
together with African allies, to arm and fund various Somali warlords. In
2004, some warlords were drawn together into the Transitional Federal
Government (TFG). However, successive attempts to establish a government
were based on clan alliance and were inherently unstable because of the
zero-sum character of the clans' competition for resources.
<http://www.time.com/time/magazine/article/0,9171,979399,00.html> (From
TIME's archive: America's misadventure in Somalia.)
The TFG failed to transcend the predatory warlord politics that had
prevailed for 15 years, and in 2006, the Islamic Courts Union (ICU), an
Islamist alliance that eschewed the politics of clans, seized control of
Mogadishu, rapidly bringing order and economic improvement to their
expanding areas of control, thanks to the enthusiastic support of the Somali
business community. Thousands of men and women welcomed them, clapping and
singing in joy as the ICU's victory convoy coursed through formerly warring
neighborhoods.
But the movement's Islamist colors, and the fact that the ICU was said to
have given shelter to a handful of wanted al-Qaeda suspects, did not sit
well with the U.S. State Department's sole Somalia analyst in the region at
the time. And for Washington, the ICU became an intolerable alternative.
With apparent U.S. approval, Ethiopia used funds provided by Washington to
buy weapons from North Korea, smuggling them in through Somaliland - a
breakaway region of Somalia desperate for international recognition. The
U.S. then backed an Ethiopian invasion to restore the TFG to power. During
the ensuing fighting, up to 16,000 Somalis were killed and 1 million were
displaced. The Islamist leadership was driven out of Mogadishu. The ICU's
armed wing, known as al-Shabab (the Youth), initiated an insurgency against
the Ethiopian occupation and its Somali accomplices and used tactics seen in
Iraq, such as improvised explosive devices and suicide bombings. The Shabab
had been a radical faction of the ICU, but was far from dominant. The
Ethiopian invasion not only ended the ICU experiment in governance but also
legitimized the more militant outlook of the Shabab. (Does al-Shabab want to
join terror's big league?)
<http://www.time.com/time/world/article/0,8599,2003837,00.html>
The resulting instability in Somalia has been infused not just with the U.S.
global agenda against al-Qaeda, but also with the agendas of regional
adversaries - the proxies of Ethiopia against Eritrea and even those of
Egypt, Yemen and other Arab states against Ethiopia. Those agendas further
complicate Somalia's political-military landscape, propelling the country
into cyclical foreign interventions. If the African Union forces pulled out,
the TFG would almost certainly disappear. But if the Shabab then managed to
plant its flag and declare that it was in control, the U.S. would once again
find the situation intolerable. Disengagement is unlikely. And every time
there has been an increase of foreign involvement, the Shabab - or its
equivalent - only grows and becomes more radicalized.
Is there an exit strategy? One reason the ICU was able to take power was
that it provided the best environment for business, and offered a better
deal for Somalis than the warlords did. Ultimately, it may be the business
communities of the various clans that will be the kingmakers, and perhaps
the key to stability.
Rosen is a fellow at the New York University Center on Law and Security and
author of the forthcoming book Aftermath: Following the Bloodshed of
America's Wars in the Muslim World
Read more:
<http://www.time.com/time/world/article/0,8599,2010699,00.html#ixzz0x9HPdvKQ
>
http://www.time.com/time/world/article/0,8599,2010699,00.html#ixzz0x9HPdvKQ
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