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From: Berhane Habtemariam (Berhane.Habtemariam@gmx.de)
Date: Tue Aug 24 2010 - 12:56:26 EDT
INSTANT VIEW 2-Somali gunmen storm Mogadishu hotel
Tue Aug 24, 2010 12:37pm GMT
Aug 24 (Reuters) - An armed attack on a Mogadishu hotel popular with
government officials on Tuesday left 31 people dead, including several
parliamentarians.
Below follows reaction from experts to the attack.
EJ HOGENDOORN, HORN OF AFRICA DIRECTOR, INTERNATIONAL CRISIS GROUP
"(The attack) is another indication the government is in a very desperate
situation when dealing with al-Shabaab and still needs the support of AMISOM
(African Union Mission in Somalia) to stay in power."
"It is impossible for the government to protect its entire people
(politicians) from attack. Some would suggest that government is in a weaker
position than it was a couple of months ago. I do not necessarily agree. The
government is in a similar position whereby they have ineffective security
forces, and in large part rely on AMISOM to protect the most important
institutions they have. The security forces are not at a stage where they
can protect government by themselves."
"I think arguably al-Shabaab are weaker than previously. The fact they have
to carry out terrorist attacks, rather than regular conventional attack,
shows they do not have the capacity to defeat AMISOM or the TFG
(Transitional Federal Government) forces working with them."
JUSTIN CRUMP, CEO, SIBYLLINE INTELLIGENCE CONSULTANCY
"The limited nature of TFG and AMISOM security is clearly shown by this
incident. Despite the President's many promises of an offensive to regain
Mogadishu, nothing has actually happened, foreign-trained troops have gone
unpaid and many have consequently defected. The latest incident is just the
latest to show that the jihadists are in fact on the front foot. Many MPs
have meanwhile fled abroad due to the constant threat to their lives and TFG
has often struggled to achieve a quorum."
"AMISOM is already under its mandated strength and despite the impetus of
the Kampala bombings history suggests it is unlikely to be reinforced
effectively. Instead, an increase in troop numbers will probably be
portrayed by al-Shabaab and its allies as a further foreign invasion, which
has been an effective jihadist rallying cry elsewhere - notably in Iraq
(from where al-Shabaab still draws much inspiration) and Afghanistan. It
seems likely that the Kampala bombings were intended to bring about just
such a reaction.
"More widely, the international community will be willing to offer only
limited support, and certainly a wider Western intervention would have
serious repercussions. The Western effort is therefore likely to remain
focused on more deniable operations using Special Forces, Unmanned Aerial
Vehicles and intelligence assets as well as training and equipment support
for TFG - although the current failure of TFG forces means that this part of
the strategy needs to be reconsidered."
GUS SELASSIE, AFRICA ANALYST, IHS GLOBAL INSIGHT
"There has been an outbreak of clashes in Mogadishu in the past 24 hours
which TFG claims has been sparked by a new al-Shabaab offensive, with
casualties reported on both sides. The attack on the hotel housing the MPs
seems to be part of this."
"The AU (African Union) have already committed themselves to the deployment
of additional troops ... the prospect of a Western-led intervention in
Somalia at this stage (at a time when they are desperately trying to extract
themselves from equally difficult missions in Iraq and Afghanistan) appears
highly remote."
JAMES BLAKE, INTELLIGENCE ANALYST, JANUSIAN SECURITY
"From a security perspective, it seems the attack is intended to show that
there are very few places in Mogadishu that al-Shabaab cannot target.
Disguising themselves as government soldiers obviously helped the assailants
evade the hotel's security, but the location of the attack in the most
secure part of Mogadishu will do little for confidence in the TFG's ability
to create a stable environment. Attacks near the palace have been a
long-held strategy for al-Shabaab."
ROB HARFORD, OPERATIONS DIRECTOR, SALAMANCA RISK MANAGEMENT
"Whether more African Union troops will lead to greater stability is the
million dollar question. Somalia is a particularly unstable and complex
insurgency. Unless the soldiers are properly trained, their arrival will
almost certainly lead to greater instability. Putting Western troops on the
ground would be highly provocative."
WILL HARTLEY, TERRORISM ANALYST, IHS JANE'S
"There is no political will whatsoever among Western governments for getting
involved on the ground in security operations. The fact that we are seeing
an escalation on the ground will not change that."
"What we are going to see is greater international support for AMISOM (AU
peace force), more training of its soldiers and a lot in the way of indirect
attempts to support the transitional government."
(Reporting by William Maclean, editing by Tim Pearce and Nina Chestney)
C Thomson Reuters 2010 All rights reserved
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