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From: Berhane Habtemariam (Berhane.Habtemariam@gmx.de)
Date: Wed Aug 25 2010 - 08:32:46 EDT
U.S. Weighs Expanded Strikes in Yemen
By
<http://online.wsj.com/search/term.html?KEYWORDS=ADAM+ENTOUS&bylinesearch=tr
ue> ADAM ENTOUS And
<http://online.wsj.com/search/term.html?KEYWORDS=SIOBHAN+GORMAN&bylinesearch
=true> SIOBHAN GORMAN
Wednesday,August 25, 2010
WASHINGTON-U.S. officials believe al Qaeda in Yemen is now collaborating
more closely with allies in Pakistan and Somalia to plot attacks against the
U.S., spurring the prospect that the administration will mount a more
intense targeted killing program in Yemen.
Such a move would give the Central Intelligence Agency a far larger role in
what has until now been mainly a secret U.S. military campaign against
militant targets in Yemen and across the Horn of Africa. It would likely be
modeled after the CIA's covert drone campaign in Pakistan.
The U.S. military's Special Operation Forces and the CIA have been
positioning surveillance equipment, drones and personnel in Yemen, Djibouti,
Kenya and Ethiopia to step up targeting of al Qaeda's Yemen affiliate, al
Qaeda in the Arabian Peninsula, known as AQAP, and Somalia's al
Shabaab-Arabic for The Youth.
U.S. counterterrorism officials believe the two groups are working more
closely together than ever. "The trajectory is pointing in that direction,"
a U.S. counterterrorism official said of a growing nexus between the
Islamist groups. He said the close proximity between Yemen and Somalia
"allows for exchanges, training." But he said the extent to which AQAP and
al Shabaab are working together is "hard to measure in an absolute way."
Authorizing covert CIA operations would further consolidate control of
future strikes in the hands of the White House, which has enthusiastically
embraced the agency's covert drone program in Pakistan's tribal areas.
Congressional officials briefed on the matter compared the growing
relationships to partnerships forged between al Qaeda's leadership in
Quetta, Pakistan, and increasingly capable groups like Taliban factions and
the Haqqani network, a group based in the tribal areas of Pakistan that has
been battling U.S. forces in neighboring Afghanistan.
"You're looking at AQAP. You're looking at al Qaeda in Somalia. You're
looking at al Qaeda even in Afghanistan and Pakistan, and you see a whole
bunch of folks and a whole bunch of activity, as ineffective as it may be
right now, talking about and planning attacks in the U.S.," said Rep. Pete
Hoekstra of Michigan, who is the top Republican on the House intelligence
committee.
White House officials had no immediate comment.
Defense officials have long seen links between al Shabaab and al Qaeda as an
emerging threat, but some in the CIA were more skeptical. Those disparate
views appear to have converged during a recent White House review of the
threat posed by the Somali group.
Some lawmakers and intelligence officials now think AQAP and al Shabaab
could pose a more immediate threat to the U.S. than al Qaeda leaders now
believed to be in Pakistan who were behind the Sept. 11, 2001, attacks but
have largely gone into hiding. AQAP and al Shabaab have increasingly
sophisticated recruitment techniques and are focused on less spectacular
attacks that are harder for U.S. intelligence agencies to detect and to
stop.
"It's very possible the next terrorist attack will see its origins coming
out of Yemen and Somalia rather than out of Pakistan," Mr. Hoekstra said.
AQAP was behind the failed bombing of a U.S.-bound jetliner last Christmas
Day, and has gained in stature in Islamist militant circles in large part
because of the appeal of Anwar al-Awlaki, a U.S.-born, Internet-savvy cleric
who some officials see as the group's leader-in-waiting.
U.S. officials have seen indications that al Qaeda leadership is discussing
with AQAP an expanded role for Mr. Awlaki, who was allegedly involved in the
Christmas bombing attempt and had communicated with Fort Hood shooter Maj.
Nidal Hasan.
"They are moving people in who understand the U.S.," a U.S. official said,
adding that such people have a unique ability to inspire extremist
sympathizers in the U.S. "They know what their vulnerabilities may be. It
concerns me a lot."
Al Qaeda's central leadership and affiliates in Yemen and Somalia are
increasingly strengthening their ties and have even discussed efforts to
attack U.S. interests, U.S. officials say.
Mr. Hoekstra said he was particularly concerned about communications between
al Qaeda in Yemen and Shabaab in Somalia. "We get indications their goals
are more in alignment in terms of attacking American and western interests
and doing it in Europe and the [U.S.] homeland," he said.
This increasing alignment has spawned a debate within the administration
over whether to try to replicate the type of drone campaign the CIA has
mounted with success in Pakistan. The CIA has rapidly stepped up its drone
hits in Pakistan under the Obama administration and is now conducting
strikes at an average rate of two or three a week-which amount to about 50
so far this year. Since the beginning of the Obama administration the
strikes have killed at least 650 militants, according to a U.S. official.
Earlier this year, a U.S. counterterrorism official said around 20
noncombatants have been killed in the CIA campaign in Pakistan, and the
number isn't believed to have grown much since then.
Such a move would likely find bipartisan support on Capitol Hill. Mr.
Hoekstra said he would support a more aggressive effort like that in Yemen.
"The more pressure we can keep putting on al Qaeda whether it's in Yemen,
Pakistan, or Afghanistan, the better off we will be," he said. "If they
asked for the funds, Congress would provide them with it."
Rep. Adam Smith, a Washington Democrat who serves both on the House
intelligence and armed services committees, also said it would be helpful to
take similar measures in Yemen.
"The intelligence community, broadly speaking will need to increase its
focus on Yemen," he said, adding that the efforts needed aren't just CIA
operations but also counterterrorism efforts of other agencies, including
the U.S. military.
Giving the CIA greater control of counterterrorism efforts in Yemen could
run into resistance from some in the Pentagon who feel a sense of ownership
of a campaign against extremists that began last year.
The military's Central Command under Gen. David Petraeus had lobbied
aggressively to sharply increase military assistance to Yemen. The military
has carried out several strikes against al Qaeda militants in coordination
with Yemen's government. One in May killed a deputy governor, angering
Yemeni president Ali Abdullah Saleh.
Write to Siobhan Gorman at <mailto:siobhan.gorman@wsj.com>
siobhan.gorman@wsj.com
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