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From: Berhane Habtemariam (Berhane.Habtemariam@gmx.de)
Date: Thu Aug 26 2010 - 06:48:58 EDT
Could Al-Shabab Attacks Bring Down Somalia's Government?
By Nick <http://www.time.com/time/letters/email_letter.html> Wadhams
Wednesday, Aug. 25, 2010
Just a few months ago, the going story on al-Shabab, an Islamic insurgent
group in Somalia, was that it could carry out well-coordinated, very deadly
attacks, but posed no existential threat to the country's central
government, weak as it may be.
Now, after a series of bombings on Tuesday that culminated with the brazen
killing of at least 30 people, including six members of parliament,
al-Shabab has shown itself to be far more powerful than that, and Somali
state officials tell TIME they fear the Western-backed government could fall
any time. <http://www.time.com/time/world/article/0,8599,2010699,00.html>
(See how al-Shabab emerged from the chaos of Somalia.)
Tuesday's attack saw just two al-Shabab fighters storm the Muna Hotel in
Mogadishu early in the morning, gunning down bystanders outside and hotel
staff, armed guards and parliamentarians inside before blowing themselves
up. The fact that they succeeded in killing so many people at a hotel
frequented by security forces and politicians, many of them armed
themselves, was a striking symbol of the government's impotence.
"The government does not have enough power to defeat al-Shabab and to secure
the safety of Mogadishu," Ali Osman, a senior official in the Ministry for
Industry, tells TIME. "This is shameful for the TFG [Transitional Federal
Government] and I cannot really say there is a government - it is just a
name." <http://www.time.com/time/world/article/0,8599,1945855,00.html> (See
a brief history of al-Shabab.)
The Transitional Federal Government was formed in 2007 with the backing of
the international community. It remains in power thanks mostly to 6,000
African Union peacekeepers who protect Villa Somalia, home to President
Sheikh Sharif Ahmed, as well as the airport, the docks and a few city
streets around them. Last week, the AU announced that the first of 2,000
additional troops had begun to arrive - part of plans to fulfill an earlier
AU promise for 8,000 soldiers - but that didn't stop al-Shabab from
launching a new offensive on Monday in which 40 people were reportedly
killed. After the massacre at Muna Hotel on Tuesday, 10 more people were
killed Wednesday in a third day of fighting.
Al-Shabab leaders have vowed more attacks soon. "Al-Shabab will attack the
enemies of Allah in our country and will continue until they are removed and
Somalia comes under Islamic rule," al-Shabab spokesman Sheikh Ali Mohadum
Rage told TIME. "There will be many other places that will be attacked both
in the country and, if necessary, outside the country. Al-Shabab will not be
stopped."
Such words might once have been seen as empty threats, but no longer.
Al-Shabab has gained strength with surprising speed since it emerged in 2006
from the ruins of a more moderate Islamic government that had brought some
stability to Somalia until Ethiopia invaded late that year. The group now
controls much of southern Somalia, including the lucrative port of Kismayo,
and seeks to impose Taliban-style sharia law across the country.
Last December, al-Shabab claimed responsibility for a suicide bombing at a
medical-school graduation ceremony in Mogadishu, killing 24 people including
three government ministers. Then, in July, bombers staged double attacks in
Kampala, Uganda, on the night of the World Cup final that left 74 people
dead. Uganda has supplied about half of the AU peacekeepers in Mogadishu.
<http://www.time.com/time/world/article/0,8599,2003120,00.html> (See more on
the attack in Uganda.)
Analysts and members of the government attribute some of al-Shabab's bloody
success to an influx of money and training from foreign fighters linked to
al-Qaeda. On Wednesday, the Wall Street Journal reported that the U.S. now
believes a branch of al-Qaeda in Yemen is working closely with al-Shabab.
The trouble is figuring out the best way to respond. The U.S. and other
allies of the Transitional Federal Government have often said that the TFG
represents Somalia's best hope for peace, but are reluctant to send the sort
of military or financial support that would allow it to turn the tide
against al-Shabab. In July, the former U.N. representative for Somalia,
Ahmedou Ould Abdallah, said the Somali government had only received $3.5
million of $213 million pledged at a donor conference in 2009.
But whether there's much foreign governments could do, short of sending huge
numbers of troops into Mogadishu, is up for debate. The TFG is riven by
internal fighting, defections, corruption and financial bankruptcy. It holds
a tiny piece of the Somali capital and, without the thousands of AU troops
stationed in Mogadishu, would fall quickly.
Somali officials - many of whom also receive their salaries from foreign
governments - say that such a state of affairs cannot last, if only because
al-Shabab will make good on its threats and oust the government from power.
"We aren't getting the international support that we were promised,"
Mohammed Omar Talha, the deputy speaker of parliament, tells TIME. "If we do
not attack them in their places, they will attack us in the presidential
palace. So we cannot wait."
That sentiment was echoed by another MP, Mohammed Abdi, who predicted the
TFG would fall soon without help. "The situation is worse than before, let's
not hide the truth," Abdi tells TIME. "If the AU and the international
community don't come in the next few weeks to help us I don't think we'll
have a government of Somalia.
Read more:
<http://www.time.com/time/world/article/0,8599,2013649,00.html#ixzz0xhwJ2U4J
>
http://www.time.com/time/world/article/0,8599,2013649,00.html#ixzz0xhwJ2U4J
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