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From: Biniam Tekle (biniamt@dehai.org)
Date: Fri Aug 27 2010 - 08:28:58 EDT
http://news.xinhuanet.com/english2010/indepth/2010-08/27/c_13465777.htm
No easy way to peace in war-ravaged Somalia
NAIROBI, Aug. 27 (Xinhua) -- A suicide attack in the Somali capital of
Mogadishu on Tuesday has once again attracted world attention to the
seemingly never-ending violence in the Horn of Africa nation.
The renewed attack by al-Qaida-linked militant group al-Shabaab killed
at least 30 people.
Observers see no easy way to peace in the country mired in nearly two
decades of civil war, citing the deep division between the regional
warlords and political factions as well as the lack of a strong
government able to administer the country effectively.
But they also have urged foreign countries to take great care when
intervening, warning outside influence may easily fuel violence, as
militant forces fighting the government find this an excuse for
launching offensives in the name of nationalism.
HOTEL ATTACK FOLLOWED AU TROOPS SURGE PROMISE
The attack earlier this week on a Mogadishu hotel took place after the
Africa Union (AU) pledged to send an additional 4,000 troops in the
capital. This will add to the 6,000 troops already deployed there to
shore up the fragile government.
In a gathering in Uganda last week, leaders of African countries
decided to beef up their forces after al-Shabaab carried out an attack
in the Ugandan capital of Kampala in July, killing 76 people, a sign
that the Somali violence has spilled over its soil.
Al-Shabaab, a leading anti-government group that controls much of
southern and central Somalia as well as most of Mogadishu, also
claimed responsibility for the Mogadishu attack saying it was
retaliating against the AU troops deployment.
The group has previously warned African countries against plans to
send addition troops.
The country has been immersed in a civil war since 1991. The current
cycle of violence started in 2008 and violence in Mogadishu has led to
some 3,000 conflict-related casualties so far this year and uprooted
around 200,000 people from the city.
The Western-backed transitional government, which controls only a few
streets of the capital, has long promised to launch a major offensive
against al-Shabaab but even itself needs the protection of foreign
troops.
AU TROOPS NOT TO BRING PEACE
Analysts have questioned that the AU could bring peace to Somalia by
deploying more troops. Rather they warn the organization will
encounter resistance from al-Shabaab and other groups. Different
Somali clans tend to unite to fight foreign forces when they consider
their country being invaded, they say.
"African leaders are daydreaming. You can't solve Somalia's problems
by sending in more troops," said Zakaria Mohamud Haji Abdi of the
Alliance for the Re-liberation of Somalia, a group established to
oppose Ethiopia's recent foray into Somalia.
Roland Marchal, a Somalia expert at the Center for International
Studies and Research in Paris, said: "A guerrilla war is rarely won
militarily. A political solution should be envisioned."
As evidence, al-Shabaab recently has vowed to "annihilate" the new AU
troops and urged Somalis to fight the peacekeepers.
RECONCILIATION ONLY SOLUTION
The priority agenda at present for the Somalis is to negotiate
reconciliation among all factions so as to set up an inclusive
government, including al-Shabaab. No durable peace will come if any
faction is left out, analysts point out.
The transitional government, albeit weak, could survive and serve as a
starting point for the peace process if given a chance, according to
David Shinn, adjunct professor of international affairs at the
Washington-based Elliot School of International Affairs.
To improve the current situation, Somali forces need to be trained to
the point where they are efficient forces, can serve on behalf of the
transitional government, are loyal to the government and are paid
regularly, Shinn told Xinhua in a recent interview.
Shinn advised the transitional government to work closely with local
community leaders and local elders, and explain that if they would use
their local militia, they're far more numerous than al-Shabaab
militia.
In intervening the Somali crisis, the international community needs to
walk very cautiously and leave the Somalis enough space to mediate
themselves, some analysts have said.
AU JUSTIFIES TROOPS DEPLOYMENT
Meanwhile, the AU has defended its military approach, saying national
reconciliation is impossible without foreign assistance. The foreign
troops has at least prevented the collapse of the transitional
government, they argue.
The organization warned of deteriorating conflicts in the country and
urged the international community to get more involved into the
country's affairs.
Following the Mogadishu attack, Ugandan army spokesman Lieutenant
Colonel Felix Kulayigye said the renewed violence would not change
plans to deploy more peacekeepers.
"These attacks will not affect us. We are comfortable handling the
situation," he said.
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