webmaster
© Copyright DEHAI-Eritrea OnLine, 1993-2010
All rights reserved
From: Berhane Habtemariam (Berhane.Habtemariam@gmx.de)
Date: Tue Sep 07 2010 - 12:08:24 EDT
SCENARIOS-Sudan's looming vote on independence
Tue Sep 7, 2010 12:29pm GMT
By Opheera McDoom
KHARTOUM, Sept 7 (Reuters) - Sudan has just four months to prepare a
referendum in which people from the south of the country will decide whether
they want to secede from the north and form the world's newest nation.
But years of delays have left the referendum's organising commission with
what many call a mission impossible. Here are some possible scenarios
surrounding the vote.
REFERENDUM DELAYED
The Jan. 9, 2011 date for the referendum that will determine the future of
Africa's largest country is a red line for the south's ruling Sudan People's
Liberation Movement (SPLM). Most analysts agree the south will vote for
secession and emotions are running high in the semi-autonomous oil-producing
region.
The SPLM knows time is short to prepare a credible referendum. But it says
the northern National Congress Party (NCP) has stalled on the vote since the
2005 peace deal that ended the long war between the north and south. The
plebiscite is intended to be the culmination of that accord.
The SPLM believes that agreeing to a delay would just bring more stalling,
and would be political suicide for the party. The SPLM predicts a delay
could provoke violent demonstrations by southerners which it may not be able
to control.
If a delay is necessary, an announcement a week or two ahead of the vote,
citing logistical problems, would be more acceptable than announcing a delay
now. Any delay could not be more than a few weeks, in order to appease
southerners bent on the self-determination they have fought for since 1955.
NO REFERENDUM
This is the worst-case scenario but still a possibility as the referendum
commission formed at the end of June has had less than six months to plan
the vote.
Observers believe the voter registration does not begin in October, there
will not be time to organise the plebiscite.
The SPLM has already said that if the referendum does not take place, the
2005 accord allows it to use other means to express its right to
self-determination. The party has also said that the south's parliament
could take over the referendum in the south or vote itself on whether to
secede or not.
The success of such a move would depend largely on whether it is accepted by
the international community, given the number of complaints of intimidation
and fraud in the south during parliamentary and other elections in April.
But given the obstacles to holding the plebiscite on time, it is likely the
world will have to accept such a vote if there is no referendum.
However the north would also have to recognise such a vote, because 98
percent of the south's budget depends on oil revenues sent from Khartoum.
Much of Sudan's 6 billion barrels of crude reserves lie south of the border
but the oil distribution network is in the north, which makes the two parts
of the country economically interdependent.
If the north does not recognise a vote to separate, it could turn off the
oil taps which would create an immediate disaster for the landlocked south.
PARTIAL VOTE
People in the south will qualify to vote, and so too should millions of
southern Sudanese living in the north or abroad.
But a shortage of time and a lack of any clear method to determine whether
these members of the diaspora qualify as southerners means the plebiscite
may happen only in the south.
That could alienate the north, which feels many southerners living in
Khartoum may vote for unity.
But the south has at least 8 million residents who are expected to favour
secession, a clear majority over those living outside the south. So it will
be hard to argue that the result of a vote held solely in the south should
not be accepted.
The southern referendum is meant to take place at the same time as a
plebiscite in the disputed oil-producing Abyei region on whether it should
join the north or south. But a deadlock over the composition of that
referendum's electoral commission means it is unlikely to happen on time, if
at all.
RETURN TO VIOLENCE?
While there is a wall of mistrust separating the NCP and SPLM after years of
bickering over implementation of the 2005 accord, it is not in the economic
interests of either side to return to conflict.
There are however still many disputed issues surrounding the referendum
which could push the delicate balance over the edge.
Analysts have warned that both north and south Sudan's armies have been
re-arming in the build-up to the vote.
The referendum is filled with emotion for both northerners and southerners
and the lack of clarity on the status of citizenship, wealth sharing, the
resource-rich north-south border and the oil areas are all potential
flashpoints which could mean a return to conflict if not handled with care.
If the two parties cannot resolve these disputes they could provoke clashes
between local communities. These could drag north and south back to the
cycle of war they have endured since 1955 and which could again disrupt
surrounding countries.
REFERENDUM GOES AHEAD
In Sudan politicians seem to favour brinkmanship and have a habit of leaving
things to the last minute. Dire predictions about Sudan are usually tempered
by the underlying desire of both the SPLM and the NCP not to return to war.
Long-delayed decisions by the two parties over issues such as the
north-south border and citizenship could be made at the last minute to avoid
a return to conflict. This may well be the case with the referendum's
logistical stumbling blocks too.
The NCP is likely to realise it cannot stop the vote and will eventually
allow it to take place to avoid violent protests from southerners which
could drag the two sides back to war.
Many observers agree the most likely scenario will be a last minute scramble
to hold a hasty and not entirely credible referendum only in the south in
January, which everyone will have to recognise because there will be little
other choice.
That vote is likely to favour secession and Sudan then enters a six-month
transition period until July 9, 2011 to make arrangements to create two new
countries. (Editing by Giles Elgood)
C Thomson Reuters 2010 All rights reserved
South Sudan army to buy helicopters, plans airforce
Tue Sep 7, 2010 11:11am GMT
* Northern army says deal a "threat", breaks peace deal
* LRA rebels kill eight in night machete raid
By Andrew Heavens
KHARTOUM, Sept 7 (Reuters) - South Sudan's army said on Tuesday it planned
to buy its first transport helicopters in the near future and hoped to build
up a full air force if southerners chose independence in a looming
referendum.
North Sudan's army, which fought the south in a decades-long civil war, told
Reuters the southern helicopter purchase would be seen as a "threat" and a
violation of the 2005 peace deal that ended the conflict.
The statements will raise concerns among analysts who have warned that both
north and south Sudan's armies have been re-arming in the build-up to the
politically charged referendum, due in January 2011, and that there is a
risk of a return to conflict between the former civil war foes.
Southerners were promised a vote on whether to secede in the 2005
Comprehensive Peace Agreement that ended Africa's longest civil war, a
conflict which killed 2 million people, drove 4 million from their homes and
destabilised the whole region.
Relations between both sides have remained troubled and southern leaders
have accused Khartoum of trying to disrupt the vote to keep control of the
south's oil reserves.
"In the very near future, we want to buy transport helicopters so that we
are able to supply our forces during the rainy season. The terrain is very
difficult in south Sudan," said southern army (SPLA) spokesman Kuol Deim
Kuol.
He dismissed as "a great lie" reports in Sudanese state media and other
outlets that the south had already placed an order for 10 helicopters from a
Russian supplier. Kuol added the south had the right to modernise its former
guerrilla force.
SPLA chief of staff James Hoth told Reuters the southern army had set out
plans for an air force as far back as 2007 and would carry them out if
southerners chose independence.
"Yes we are planning, but not now ... If the vote is for unity, we will
share the national air force. If there is a vote for separation we will
build up our own aircraft."
A spokesman for the northern Sudan Armed Forces (SAF) said the south had
already placed the helicopter order.
"This is a clear violation of the peace deal and also it is a threat ...
This is a violation because the government of south Sudan is an internal
government and has no right to have separate international relations. It is
buying helicopters and the contract is in the name of the government of
Sudan."
The rules of the north-south peace deal ban either side from replenishing
arms or ammunition without the approval of a Joint Defence Board, but
analysts say that is being flouted.
The northern spokesman added the SPLA had no mandate in the 2005 accord to
arm itself with an air force, but it could do what it wanted if the south
split away after the referendum.
Separately, the SPLA said Uganda's brutal Lord's Resistance Army rebels
killed eight people in a night-time raid on a village near Yambio, capital
of south Sudan's remote Western Equatoria State, on Saturday.
"They assembled these people in one place and started chopping their heads
with their machetes. It is part of Khartoum's policy of terrorising people,"
said Kuol.
Khartoum regularly denies southern accusations that it is backing the LRA
and other militias to destabilise the region. (Additional reporting by
Opheera McDoom; Editing by Giles Elgood)
C Thomson Reuters 2010 All rights reserved
----[This List to be used for Eritrea Related News Only]----