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From: Berhane Habtemariam (Berhane.Habtemariam@gmx.de)
Date: Wed Sep 08 2010 - 16:56:41 EDT
Going for Mogadishu
Escalating violence reopens Somalia's wounds, writes Gamal
<mailto:gnkrumah@ahram.org.eg?subject=Region%20::%20Going%20for%20Mogadishu>
Nkrumah
2 - 8 September 2010
_____
Fighting in and around the presidential palace in Mogadishu and the
strategic areas in the vicinity of the Somali capital's international
airport quashed hopes this week that the Transitional National Government
(TNG) of Somalia is ready to placate its militant Islamist foes. TNG
political heavyweights' failure to accommodate the demands of the militant
Islamists to institute an Islamist state in Somalia is the most dangerous
sign of the TNG's weakness. Without domestic consensus, Somali militias tied
to political groups resort to violence to impose their ideological will.
This observation leads in two possible directions. The first is that the
repeated military setbacks of the Somali government forces have starkly
illustrated the inability of Western powers, in spite of open and
unconstrained support for the TNG, to influence events in war-torn Somalia.
The meddling of neighbours fearing an Islamist takeover in Somalia will
undoubtedly intensify, complicating matters further. Even so, Ethiopia, the
most powerful nation in the Horn of Africa, after a series of military
setbacks in Somalia, will be loath to be dragged back in.
The second prognosis is that all sides must yield ground if the
Al-Mujahideen Al-Shabab (Youthful Fighters), the main armed opposition group
in Somalia is to leave violence behind.
The key question that nobody in the West cared to ask himself or herself is
why democracy Western-style offers little to attract the vast majority of
Somali people. That, in turn, suggests that militant Islam does have a hold
on Somali society.
Not only is Somalia a failed state, but it is also a haven of terrorists.
Somalia's neighbours are increasingly concerned that the escalating violence
in Somalia will spill over into their territories. Somalia's neighbours have
a common interest in fighting terrorism. They also have the full backing of
Western powers. Yet they are collectively incapable of containing the
rapidly deteriorating situation in Somalia. The failure of the combined
forces of the TNG and its African allies to defeat the Shabab and other
militant Islamist groups actually provides yet another barbarous
illustration of the West's inability to change the fortunes of the ill-fated
TNG. And even worse, it proves the paucity of the West's formidable arsenal
when it comes to punishing militant Islamists that adamantly refuse to bend
to the West's will.
To be fair, the West is fighting a war by proxy in Somalia using its African
allies as pawns. Militants of Al-Shabab have shown once again that they can
kill government lackeys across Somalia with impunity. What they have not
proven yet, is that they can actually usurp power by storming the
presidential palace in Mogadishu.
Whether that happens remains to be seen. This week they have come perilously
close to doing so. The TNG, its African allies and their Western backers all
hope against hope that this week's attacks on strategic positions in
Mogadishu are a desperate last throw of the dice by hardened Islamist
militants. The facts on the ground demonstrate beyond doubt that the
militant Islamists are not losing support in Somalia. The TNG has been
weakened militarily and politically, some would argue mortally wounded.
It is hard to imagine at this point that the militant Islamists would be
tempted to take the hard decision to drop violence. Neither are they likely
to take the equally hard decision to talk peace with the TNG. Why should
they?
The TNG appears to be a spent force. Somalia is now on its way to becoming a
Taliban-like state. That may not be a nice thought as far as Somalia's
neighbours and their Western allies are concerned. But it is perhaps no
worse than the prospect of a desperate TNG in its death throes hanging on
for dear life to power by the help of a permanent Western and neighbouring
African military presence à la Afghanistan.
On the political front, too, the TNG suffered a crippling blow this Ramadan.
The secularists of Somalia have surely lost ground. The militant Islamists
argue that the Somali people have neither invited nor welcomed the intrusion
of foreigners -- neighbouring African and Western -- in their internal
political affairs.
The fact that the international community has used every measure and threat
and still failed to influence the outcome of the violence in Somalia gives
little hope to those in the TNG who are looking for overseas pressure to try
and dislodge the militant Islamist forces from Mogadishu.
Lingering social discontent, the intensification of the Islamist insurgency
and political deadlock are a combustible combination both for Somalia and
its neighbours. The longer Somali politicians wrangle over who is to run the
country and the more apparent it becomes that the West cannot provide some
hand-holding for the TNG, the more frustrations among the long-suffering
Somalis will explode into uncontrollable political chaos. The political
impasse aggravates the crisis of governance in Somalia. Yet the flare-up
could easily be contained if the TNG relinquishes power amicably. This last
and very plausible political option is always a far cry from the frightening
scenarios envisaged by the doomsayers.
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