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From: Berhane Habtemariam (Berhane.Habtemariam@gmx.de)
Date: Thu Sep 16 2010 - 06:40:48 EDT
U.S. Steps Up Mediation Efforts as Referendum Nears
Jim Lobe*
16 September 2010
_____
WASHINGTON, Sep 16 (IPS)- Less than four months before a scheduled
referendum on independence for southern Sudan, the administration of
President Barack Obama is intensifying pressure on both Khartoum and the
south's leadership to establish the necessary pre-conditions for the vote
and any transition that follows it.
Obama himself will attend a key meeting on Sudan to be hosted by
Secretary-General Ban Ki-moon at U.N. headquarters Sep. 24 to highlight the
importance of resolving all outstanding disputes before the vote, Obama's
special envoy on Sudan, ret. Maj. Gen. Scott Gration, told reporters at a
special briefing here Wednesday.
Gration, who just returned from his 20th trip to Sudan since his appointment
early last year, also warned the next weeks represent a "make-or-break
period" for the country.
"We must ensure that the parties find agreements" on the issues that remain
to be settled before the referendum, which is scheduled to take place in
January, he said.
They include, among other things, the final demarcation of the border
between the north and the south and the terms for sharing oil reserves, most
of which lie in the south, and future oil revenues. In addition, the voter
registration process - a daunting challenge in a vast region that lacks
basic infrastructure - has not yet begun.
The stakes are considered very high, indeed. If the referendum, which most
analysts believe will result in a strong vote for secession, fails to take
place or if the results are rejected by Khartoum, the civil war that was
halted by the 2005 Comprehensive Peace Agreement (CPA) between Khartoum and
the Sudanese Peoples Liberation Movement (SPLM) is considered highly likely
to resume.
Some two million people, the vast majority of them southerners, are believed
to have died as a result of that conflict, which began in 1983 and ended
with the signing of the CPA. The CPA, considered one of the few major
foreign policy achievements of President George W. Bush, was mediated by the
U.S., Britain, and Norway with the help of Sudan's neighbours and the
African Union (AU).
In addition to sending Obama to the U.N. - a move that U.S. officials hope
will draw other heads of state who will be attending the annual launch of
the U.N. General Assembly to the meeting - Washington has taken a number of
other steps to ensure that the referendum takes place.
Last month, it appointed Bush's former assistant secretary of state for
Africa, veteran diplomat Princeton Lyman, to lead a U.S. Negotiation Support
Unit in Sudan dedicated to resolving all pending disputes over the coming
weeks.
Lyman's appointment was reportedly backed by forces within the
administration that have expressed growing unhappiness with Gration, who has
been accused, particularly by human rights and activist groups, of acting in
too conciliatory a manner toward the government of President Omar al-Bashir.
Bashir is currently under indictment for war crimes and genocide by the
International Criminal Court in connection with the government's
counterinsurgency campaign in the western region of Darfur.
While Lyman is expected to spend much of his time shuttling between Khartoum
and Juba, the administration has also ramped up its representation in the
southern capital where it has appointed another veteran diplomat, Amb.
Barrie Walkley, to lead its efforts there.
It has also deployed top officials to convey the seriousness of Washington's
concern.
Just before Gration and Lyman arrived in Sudan late last week, for example,
Secretary of State Hillary Clinton used a major foreign policy address Sep.
8 to warn that the situation there was a "ticking time bomb of enormous
consequence" and suggest that a secession vote was "inevitable".
"The real problem is what happens when the inevitable happens and the
referendum is passed and the south declares independence," she said. " This
is going to be a very hard decision for the north to accept."
Indeed, Khartoum, whose national budget has become increasingly reliant on
oil revenues, could lose an estimated 80 percent of its oil reserves and 50
percent of its oil revenues, not to mention 30-some percent of its national
territory, if the south secedes.
"And so we've got to figure out some ways to make it worth their while to
peacefully accept an independent south, and for the south to recognise that
unless they want more years of warfare and no chance to build their own new
state, they've got to make some accommodations with the north as well," she
said.
She followed her words with phone calls that evening to Sudan's two
vice-presidents, Ali Othman Mohammed Taha, a long-time leader of the ruling
National Congress Party; and Salva Kir Mayardit, the leader of the SPLA.
According to Gration, Obama's national security advisor, ret. Gen. James
Jones talked with the two Tuesday this week.
Late Tuesday, the State Department also released a "fact sheet" detailing
its recent diplomatic efforts and, for the first time, publicly laying out a
road map for the steps Khartoum is expected to take to fully normalise long-
strained relations with Washington.
In addition to offering an immediate easing of licensing restrictions that
will make it possible to aid local food production in Sudan, Washington will
"take steps to allow additional trade and investment" in Sudan's non-oil
sectors if a "credible, peaceful" referendum takes place on time, it said.
If, in addition, there is agreement on key principles for "post-referenda
arrangements, the United States will support an exchange of ambassadors,"
according to the fact sheet, which was based on Gration's exchanges in
Khartoum.
If the CPA is fulfilled and Khartoum resolves its conflicts with rebel
groups in Darfur - a negotiation process currently being led by Qatar - the
administration work with the legislative branch to lift all remaining
bilateral and multilateral economic and aid sanctions imposed by Congress
against Sudan.
On Darfur, which has been largely overshadowed by the growing concern over a
breakdown in the CPA, any accord must include a "sustained improvement in
security, humanitarian access (to those who have been displaced by the
seven-year- old conflict), and services that improve living conditions on
the ground, (and) full cooperation with UNAMID," the U.N. peacekeeping force
deployed in Darfur, according to the sheet.
The sheet also said Gration had made clear in his talks that "there are a
range of consequences that will be deployed, if the situation in Sudan
deteriorates or fails to make progress, including additional sanctions."
Relevant Links
* East Africa <http://allafrica.com/eastafrica/>
* North Africa <http://allafrica.com/northafrica/>
* Sudan <http://allafrica.com/sudan/>
* Conflict <http://allafrica.com/conflict/>
* U.S., Canada and Africa <http://allafrica.com/usafrica/>
* International Organisations <http://allafrica.com/io/>
Darfur-related activist groups that have been critical of Gration praised
the administration Wednesday.
"We are encouraged that the plan not only spells out incentives for steps
toward peace, security and accountability, but also makes clear a range of
consequences will be deployed for failure to make progress," said Mark
Lotwis, the acting president of the Save Darfur Coalition, which represents
more than 100 humanitarian, faith-based and human rights groups.
"The intensified Sudan strategy, along with President Obama's commitment to
attend next week's U.N. summit on Sudan, indicates the kind of leadership
that millions of concerned Americans have been asking President Obama to
assert," he said, adding for all the attention focused on the North-South
situation, "Darfur should remain no less of a priority."
*Jim Lobe's blog on U.S. foreign policy can be read at
http://www.lobelog.com.
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