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From: Biniam Tekle (biniamt@dehai.org)
Date: Fri Sep 17 2010 - 10:02:18 EDT
Analysts say Ethiopia PM Consolidates Power in Government Reorganization
Peter Heinlein | Addis Ababa 17 September 2010
Ethiopia's ruling party is holding a conference this week to discuss
plans to rejuvenate the party and implement an optimistic five-year
economic plan. Analysts say the reorganization will consolidate the
power of Prime Minister Meles Zenawi.
Prime Minister Meles opened the eighth conference of the Ethiopian
People's Revolutionary Democratic Front, or EPRDF, with a pledge to
break the country's dependence on food aid within five years.
That contrasts with the most recent five year period, when a
protracted drought left one out of every six Ethiopians in need of
food assistance, and the United States shipped in more than
half-a-billion dollars worth of commodities in a single year.
The conference, in the town of Adama, some 100 kilometers south of the
capital, is expected partly to unveil the new five year growth plan,
and partly to reaffirm Mr. Meles as the EPRDF leader, and therefore
head of government in what he describes as a "dominant party state."
But the gathering also comes as the party is undergoing a major
reorganization. Several senior figures, including Foreign Minister
Seyoum Mesfin, have been dropped from powerful regional political
bureaus. Mr. Meles has hinted that he will include a host of fresh
faces in a cabinet reshuffle next month.
Little is known about the details of the shakeup. But Horn of Africa
political analyst Medhane Tadesse says the removal of many of Mr.
Meles's former comrades in the Tigrayan guerrilla movement and their
replacement by younger party loyalists will reinforce the prime
minister's already strong grip on power.
"The coming of what we call 'new guys' can only hasten this process
rather than change or alter it because Meles is going to sell his
ideas not to his old friends, but to new guys from different parts of
the country without any history of struggle, any constituency by
themselves. So it further consolidates his personal influence. So
his ideas and his personality will continue to dominate Ethiopian
politics," said Medhane.
Medhane calls the concentration of power a worrisome step toward one-man rule.
"The tragedy in recent Ethiopian politics is that the government, the
ruling party and the state have become one. When you have a strong
individual at the center of all this, then it's not simply an
alignment of the state, the party and the government. The collective
leadership has shrunk over the years and the prime minister has become
central to everything happening - not only within the party, but also
within the state and the government of the day," said Medhane.
Political scientist Solomon Mebrie of Addis Ababa University calls the
EPRDF reorganization "a bold move." But he says he worries that the
lack of a clear line between party and state will breed corruption.
"Blurring the distinction between the state and the EPRDF as a
political organization has created a condition in which particular
state functionaries and personnel at the local level use this as an
instrument of personal aggrandizement. That has in an important way
contributed to poor conditions of governance, where principles of
accountability, rule of law have been seriously compromised," he said.
State-run news services reported that Mr. Meles welcomed to the
conference visiting delegations from China's Communist Party and
members of the Indian government as well as from affiliate
organizations from Yemen, Sudan and Mozambique.
Analyst Medhane Tadesse says the invitation list reflects Ethiopia's
shifting priorities from West to East.
"I think the ruling party in Ethiopia has come to realize that the
West still has the money, but it has lost the leverage to influence
things in internal politics in countries like Ethiopia. Ethiopia
still needs Western support, development aid. But it also recognizes
the value of new emerging powers like India and China. It's partly
ideological, but it's also a matter of political expediency," said
Medhane.
Even Mr. Meles's staunchest critics admit he is one of Africa's most
formidable leaders - one who has helped raise Ethiopia's profile on
the world stage. He has represented Africa at meetings of the
so-called Group of 20 and at last year's Copenhagen climate summit.
He will lead the African delegation at the Cancun climate meeting in
December.
Mr. Meles is expected to travel to New York for next week's United
Nations General Assembly annual debate. While there, he is scheduled
to address the annual World Leaders Forum at New York City's Columbia
University.
The invitation to speak at the forum sparked strong objections, mostly
from the Ethiopian diaspora in the United States.
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