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From: Berhane Habtemariam (Berhane.Habtemariam@gmx.de)
Date: Fri Sep 24 2010 - 07:26:28 EDT
Q&A-Obama, world leaders meet to push Sudan over vote
Fri Sep 24, 2010 10:14am GMT
By Andrew Heavens
KHARTOUM, Sept 24 (Reuters) - U.S. President Barack Obama and world leaders
are due to meet at the United Nations on Friday to push for progress in a
south Sudan independence referendum seen as pivotal to peace efforts in the
fractured region.
People from Sudan's underdeveloped south, the source of most of Sudan's oil,
were promised a vote on whether to declare independence in a 2005 peace deal
that ended decades of civil war with the north.
Just over 100 days before the scheduled start of the vote on Jan. 9, 2011,
preparations are running badly behind schedule. Fears are growing that any
further delays or disruptions could plunge Sudan and the surrounding region
back into war.
Below are some questions and answers about the vote and Obama's diplomatic
efforts to push it along.
Q: What is at stake?
A successful southern referendum could bring a conclusion to one of Africa's
most bitter conflicts that has rumbled on since around the time of Sudan's
independence in the 1950s.
A return to war would have a disastrous impact on Sudan, the nine countries
that surround it and beyond, complicating existing conflicts and threatening
areas of relative stability and growth such as Ethiopia, Uganda and Kenya.
Western powers, already deeply concerned about the spread of Islamist
extremism in Somalia and the Sahara, have always been worried about security
in northern Sudan, once a refuge for Osama Bin Laden and other militants.
Former U.S. President Jimmy Carter this year went as far as warning a
collapse in Sudan's peace process could spark a faith war between Sudan's
Muslim north and the non-Muslim south, pulling in their religiously aligned
neighbours.
Q: What are the obstacles?
Southern leaders have accused the north of trying to delay and disrupt the
expected "yes" vote for secession to keep control of the region's oil -- a
charge Khartoum denies.
What ever the reason, the vote remains badly behind schedule and the most
pressing obstacles are logistical.
According to the election timetable, Sudan's referendum commission should
have prepared a final voter list three months before the vote. The
commission is still waiting for printers to deliver the blank voter
registration forms -- they are not expected until late October.
Northern and southern leaders continue to bicker over the position of their
shared border, the membership of a commission to organise a separate vote on
the future of the central Abyei region and a host of other "post-referendum"
issues, including how they will share oil revenues and debt.
Sporadic attacks by rival tribes, militias and the Ugandan rebel Lord's
Resistance Army (LRA) in the south could disrupt voting. During April
elections, the southern army was accused of intimidating voters and at times
taking over counting or entire voting centres.
If Obama and the United Nations are determined to keep to the Jan. 9
deadline, they may have to prepare to accept the results of a botched and
hurried vote.
Q: Can Obama make a difference?
Analysts say Washington has successfully applied pressure on Khartoum in the
past. The original 2005 Comprehensive Peace Agreement was seen as a foreign
policy victory for then U.S. President George W. Bush. Many argue
intensified U.S. sanctions pressed Khartoum to accept U.N. involvement in
peacekeeping efforts in the separate Darfur conflict.
Obama this month offered some compelling incentives to Khartoum in exchange
for a smooth vote and other concessions: the removal of Sudan from the list
of state sponsors of terrorism, the easing of sanctions and help with
Sudan's $35 billion external debt.
But many of those incentives rely on the cooperation of the U.S. Congress
and the goodwill of Sudan's international creditors. There are also doubts
about Obama's ability to apply further meaningful sanctions on Sudan if
Khartoum fails to hold the vote on time.
Sudan, already isolated from the U.S. economy through the existing
sanctions, does most of its business with China, the Middle East and,
increasingly, the Far East and Latin America. Obama would need widespread
international support for his initiatives to work.
Nor does Obama have any direct influence over the threat that really
obsesses the Khartoum elite -- the arrest warrants issued against Sudanese
president Omar Hassan al-Bashir by the International Criminal Court over
charges of masterminding war crimes and genocide in Darfur.
Q: What are the risks after the referendum?
Sudan's north-south border will remain highly unstable even if the south
manages a peaceful secession. The civil war battleground states of Southern
Kordofan and Blue Nile will remain in the north. But large parts of the
populations who supported the south will feel increasingly marginalised.
The regular movement of armed Arab nomads into the south in search of
pasture will raise the risk of conflict.
The International Crisis Group warned an independent south Sudan could
become a failed state "overwhelmed by internal divisions, poor governance
and bureaucratic deficiencies". (Editing by Louise Ireland)
C Thomson Reuters 2010 All rights reserved
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