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From: Berhane Habtemariam (Berhane.Habtemariam@gmx.de)
Date: Sun Sep 26 2010 - 17:40:00 EDT
Somali Government: Already Weak and Falling Apart
Written by Benjamin Joffe-Walt
Published Sunday, September 26, 2010
government days after prime minister quits.
A moderate Islamist militia has pulled out of the fragile Somali government
less than a week after the country's prime minister quit.
The Ahlu Sunna Waljamaca (ASWJ) militia signed a power-sharing treaty in
March with Somalia's Transitional Federal Government, which is besieged by a
growing radical Islamist insurgency led by the Al-Qa'ida-inspired rebel
groups Al Shabaab and Hizbul Islam.
The ASWJ has been critical in the government's effort to repel the
insurgency in central Somalia, but announced over the weekend that the
government had reneged on the deal by trying to incorporate ASWJ forces into
the government and by failing to appoint five ASWJ members to the cabinet as
agreed upon in the power-sharing treaty.
"The ASWJ represents traditional Somali Islam but they didn't play a
significant role in the government," Bashir Goth, a Somali analyst and the
former editor of the Awdal News told The Media Line. "They are probably
maneuvering to have the next prime minister appointed from among them. They
are saying 'we have been supporting you, we are important to you, now it's
time to give us the second position.'"
The moderate militia's move comes less than a week after Somali Prime
Minister Omar Abdirashid Sharmarke resigned amid growing frustration over
the government's failure to curb the Islamic insurgency.
Somali analysts differ as to whether or not President Sheikh Sharif Ahmed's
administration is on the verge of collapse.
"This group was more moderate so it's an interesting development and does
weaken the president himself," Dr. Theodore Karasik, Director for Research
and Development at the Institute for Near East Gulf Military Analysis told
The Media Line. "So we'll have to wait and see how this plays out."
Goth argued that despite the impression the ASWJ's departure may give, the
government's position has improved recently.
"The situation is not as bad as it looked a few weeks ago," he told The
Media Line. "Although the withdrawal of the ASWJ is a setback to the
Transitional Federal Government, Al-Shabaab seems to be weakening when
compared to a few weeks ago."
"The government is also getting a lot more support from the people,
especially the Hawiye clan, which is waking up to the disaster of Al Shabaab
taking over the country," Goth said. "There are also new Somali troops
recently trained in Kenya and Ethiopia."
Last month, gun battles and heavy artillery fire between forces loyal to the
Transitional Federal Government, backed by African Union troops, and
combatants from Al-Shabaab exploded in the Somali capital Mogadishu for
almost a week. Eighty people were killed in the first three days of clashes
alone.
Hundreds of African Union troops, most of them from Uganda, were flown into
the city to protect the port, airport and presidential palace: the three
areas in the capital which the government still controls.
"There's a big difference between what you wish for and what you get, and
Somalia is constantly wracked by problems -- it's the nature of the state,"
said Dr. Karasik. "There are attempts to have some kind of normalcy, but
that's few and far between."
"I think what we're seeing now is a shift of the internal situation in an
attempt to bring about some more rational behavior," he added. "We have
reports about the U.S. and U.N. wanting to work closer with some of the
regions (Somaliland and Puntland) and try to work with the clans that are
working to shut down the Al-Qa'ida-type cells and the piracy that's going
on."
Somalia has not had a functioning government since the 1991 ouster of
Mohamed Siad Barre. The ensuing years have seen a chaotic system of rival
clans controlling various parts of the capital.
The Western-backed Transitional Federal Government (TFG) was set up in 2004
but Mogadishu remained under the control of a coalition of sharia courts
known as the Islamic Courts Union.
Originally, the militant wing of the Islamic Courts Union, Al-Shabaab, began
an insurgency in late 2006 with assassinations and suicide bombings
targeting aid workers and transitional government officials. The group has
since made significant gains and now controls some 80 percent of southern
Somalia and much of the northern and western districts of the capital
Mogadishu.
Al-Shabaab members have cited links with Al-Qa'ida, although the affiliation
is believed to be minimal. The group has several thousand fighters divided
into regional units which are thought to operate somewhat independently of
one another.
The Western-backed Ethiopian military invaded Somalia in 2007, but many
analysts believe this, too, augmented Al-Shabaab's military campaign against
the transitional government.
The Ethiopians withdrew in January of last year after more than 16 months of
Al-Shabaab attacks on its forces.
A former schoolteacher, the new President of Somalia Sheikh Sharif Sheikh
Ahmed is a moderate who is supportive of Sharia law and who seeks to
integrate Al-Shabaab fighters into the transitional government's forces. His
overtures have to date been rejected and the government has largely failed
to contain Al-Shabaab's expansion. The transitional government's new
military chief was until just over a year ago the assistant manager at a
McDonald's in Germany.
The United Nations estimates that the Somali National Security Force has
less than 3,000 soldiers on the government payroll, with another 5,000 to
10,000 fighters from government-aligned militias operating in Mogadishu.
The government is backed by African Union troops from Uganda and Burundi.
Al-Shabaab recently orchestrated a twin bombing attack in Uganda which
killed more than 70 people watching the World Cup in the capital Kampala.
Copyright C 2010 The Media Line.
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