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From: Berhane Habtemariam (Berhane.Habtemariam@gmx.de)
Date: Tue Oct 05 2010 - 17:35:20 EDT
US, China Interests Compete In Sudan
Nico Colombant 04 October 2010
While U.S. officials are making a diplomatic push to keep the south Sudan
independence referendum on schedule for January, analysts say China, a major
ally of Sudan's government, also has an important role to play. The U.S.,
China rivalry is being played out over Sudan's uncertain future.
The U.S. Congress is introducing new legislation to encourage Sudan to keep
its previous peace engagements in exchange for normalizing ties, while
Sunday, Sudan's President Omar al-Bashir praised China for how it cooperates
with African countries.
The new U.S. bill, which has bipartisan support, is projected to be passed
into law before the end of the year. It comes as the U.S. diplomatic
presence is steadily growing in south Sudan.
China, meanwhile, is making sure it maintains its extremely favorable ties
with the government in Khartoum, while deepening its own links in the south.
China has been buying huge amounts of oil from Sudan's landlocked south
which run through northern pipelines, linking China to both parts of the
country.
In recent years, China has also supplied the government in Khartoum with
large amounts of military equipment and diplomatic support. Chinese
officials have said they are in favor of a united Sudan, but will respect
the outcome of the referendum if southerners choose independence.
American scholar Eric Reeves, a Sudan researcher at Smith College, initiated
a campaign branding the 2008 Olympic Games in Beijing the "genocide
Olympics" because of the ongoing war in Sudan's western Darfur province and
China's links to the conflict.
Reeves says even though the United States and China may want peace for
southern Sudan, officials in Khartoum may have other plans. "I think it is
an ideal opportunity for the United States and China to work together.
Khartoum has enjoyed diplomatic protection from Beijing for far too long at
the Security Council. Some of that changed with the "genocide Olympics"
campaign I started because it was in their self-interest not to have their
Olympics, their international coming out party tagged as the "genocide
Olympics", but there was never really a threat to China's economic interests
by virtue of their enabling Khartoum. Now, there is. If I had to bet,
Khartoum will either abort, abrogate or militarily subvert the results of
the self-determination referendum if it is allowed to take place at all," he
said.
A former U.S. ambassador in Africa, David Shinn, says China pressured
Khartoum to accept international peacekeepers in Darfur, in part because of
issues related to the Olympics. He says China's role is also crucial in
terms of the referendum.
Shinn, who is currently researching China's growing role in Africa, says
Chinese officials are paying more and more attention to officials from the
former southern rebel Sudan People's Liberation Movement, known as the SPLM.
This includes inviting them to Beijing, as well as opening a consulate in
the former rebel headquarters of Juba, the capital in southern Sudan. "They
are going to great lengths to try to ensure that they are well situated in
the south on the assumption the south votes for independence," Shinn said.
Shinn says Chinese officials follow a consistent approach of establishing
economic ties in areas of interest, such as those containing vast amounts of
oil like in southern Sudan, with whoever the authorities are.
"They will simply try to do business, whatever it takes to get it done. And
if the SPLM is on the same page, they may very well succeed. So I think
that will be the focus of the Chinese effort to shore up their relations
with the southern government assuming it becomes independent, and operate on
a business-like basis," he said.
But Kevin Funk, an independent writer, and co-author of a book called "The
Scramble for Africa: Darfur Intervention and the USA" sees the situation in
Sudan as an example of China-US rivalry over resources and military ties on
the continent.
Funk points to reports that U.S. allies in east Africa are sending weapons
to southern Sudan. "There have been reports that both Ethiopia and Kenya
have been providing the SPLM with weapons. The fact they are strong U.S.
allies and given the broader contours of U.S. policy suggests the U.S. role
in south Sudan is not as disinterested as it might commonly be portrayed,"
he said.
Other analysts, like John Prendergast from the U.S.-based Enough Project to
end genocide, see the situation with more optimism. He says southern Sudan's
scheduled referendum is an opportunity for the world's two biggest economies
to cooperate in the interests of peace in Africa.
"Both countries, China and the United States, have an interest in peace.
They may have different motivations, the Chinese have a bigger interest,
national security interest, in Sudan because they want unimpeded access to
that oil. They have sunk $10 billion into the oil sector, they would be
fools to want to have war erupt again and not react to that. So it seems to
me this is a great opportunity for the United States to work with China to
prevent war in the south to secure China's economic interests and secure
America's humanitarian interests in conflict prevention in Sudan," he said.
The referendum would be the culmination of the Comprehensive Peace Agreement
which was signed in 2005 between the Sudan People's Liberation Movement and
the government of Sudan to end two decades of conflict which killed an
estimated two million people. Other obstacles include logistics,
establishing proper voting lists, border demarcation and how oil profits
will be shared if the south votes for independence.
SPLM Official Dismisses Sudan VP Taha's Pronouncement
Peter Clottey 04 October 2010
A Sudanese opposition supporter shouts slogans as protesters wave the flag
of Sudan People's Liberation Movement (SPLM) during a demonstration against
the government in Khartoum, 07 Dec 2009
The spokesman for the Sudan People's Liberation Movement (SPLM) has
dismissed as a mere publicity stunt remarks by Sudan's Second Vice President
Ali Osman Taha that the oil-rich Abyei referendum can only be held if his
National Congress Party (NCP) reaches a political agreement with the SPLM.
Yien Matthew Chol said Mr. Taha's statement underscores the unwillingness of
the NCP leadership to commit to the full implementation of the 2005
Comprehensive Peace Agreement (CPA).
"Saying that the referendum of Abyei can never be held unless an agreement
is reached as regards to the borders is not found anywhere in the agreement
(CPA). We believe in the SPLM that we are just partners directed by the CPA
and unless there is something that is stateed and supports what Taha is
saying otherwise, we wouldn't find any reason why we should listen to such a
statement."
At a news briefing Monday, Vice President Taha stated that both partners
need to settle outstanding issues before residents in Abyei could
participate in a referendum, which is scheduled to run concurrently with
south Sudan's 9th January referendum.
Mr. Taha was quoted as saying the "Abyei referendum cannot be conducted
unless an agreement is reached on the outstanding issues in a way that
satisfies the two tribes of Miseria and Dinka Ngok, and we hope that the
talks between the two sides would come out with a satisfactory agreement."
He also called on the SPLM to stop boycotting the border demarcation
meetings so that the file would be concluded."
Officials of both the SPLM and the NCP are currently holding talks in
Ethiopia about resolving outstanding, issues including border demarcation as
well as the participation of the Miseria ethnic group are believed to be
derailing efforts to form the much-anticipated Abyei referendum.
Analysts say disagreements between the SPLM and the NCP have stalled any
attempts at forming the Abyei referendum commission that is expected to
organize the vote for residents in the region. The oil-rich Abyei region
borders the north and south of Sudan.
SPLM spokesman Chol said Mr. Taha's statement sharply contradicts
stipulations in the CPA.
"This is the nature of the NCP generally. They sometimes make statements
when people are negotiating for tactical reasons and for other political
purposes that might be better understood to them. But, the SPLM is very
clear that we can never allow a reopening of the agreement. Therefore, we
will not even allow the discussion to reopen that."
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