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From: Berhane Habtemariam (Berhane.Habtemariam@gmx.de)
Date: Tue Oct 12 2010 - 12:42:39 EDT
FEATURE-Piracy not only game in Indian Ocean naval build-up
12 Oct 2010 10:58:02 GMT
* China, Russia, Japan, others up presence over piracy
* Indian Ocean seen increasingly key strategic sea lane
* Example of promising co-operation or growing rivalry?
By Peter Apps, Political Risk Correspondent
LONDON, Oct 12 (Reuters) - In the waters of the Indian Ocean, international
warships keep watch against Somali pirates -- but in the long run, newly
arrived navies from India, China, Russia and elsewhere may be as much rivals
as allies.
The U.S. Navy estimates that on any given day as many as 30 to 40 warships
are engaged in operations to keep shipping safe from young Somalis in skiffs
with AK-47s and ladders.
*
While U.S., NATO and European Union forces make up the majority, the last
two years have seen a growing presence from China, Russia, India, Japan,
South Korea and others. While piracy -- which has redrawn shipping routes
and driven up insurance costs -- is seen the main driver, all are seen also
wanting to stake a claim to increasingly important sea lanes.
Certainly, the build-up says much about the way some powers are taking a
more muscular role in world affairs. But none of the relatively new entrants
yet comes close to challenging the regional military dominance of the United
States, which usually has at least one aircraft carrier in the area with
enough firepower to sink almost all the other navies.
"These are still relatively smaller forces," said Christian la Miere, naval
expert at London's International Institute for Strategic Studies. "But if
you're looking forward over the next few decades, there is no doubt Asian
navies will have a larger presence in the Indian Ocean relative to Western
forces. "For a story on the rise of great power politics [ID:nLDE6962DQ] For
a feature on high-tech navies vs pirates [ID:nLDE65H1PI] For a feature on
other antipiracy strategies [ID:nLDE690194] For a feature on the pirates
themselves.
The region is seen as becoming increasingly important. It accounts for 20
percent of global sea trade -- and a much higher proportion of energy and
container shipments. It is the key shipping route for oil supplies from the
Gulf, Chinese and Asian exports to Europe, and African resources --
potentially food as well as minerals. Western forces in the region may have
their other agendas as well -- from keeping tabs on potential Iranian
weapons smuggling to monitoring extremists and militants in Somalia and
Yemen -- but for the emerging powers the key interest is seen as trade.
"The Indian Ocean is becoming a central sea lane," said Nicolas Gvosdev,
national security studies professor at the U.S. Naval War College. "China
does not trust leaving this vital link in the hands of the U.S. Navy, and
wants to guarantee its access."
CHATROOM COORDINATION
China's task force -- a permanent presence of three ships running convoys
most days via Aden -- is its first in the area since eunuch admiral Zheng He
sailed in the 15th century. Beijing's modern naval commanders have
suggested opening regional naval bases to support antipiracy operations on
top of other new port projects in Pakistan, Sri Lanka and Myanmar.
That will alarm India, which has long regarded the ocean as its backyard.
Like most Asian powers, it is building its naval forces just as Western
navies cut back. Russia's presence, usually a couple of ships, also marks an
increase in naval deployment outside its immediate region. Japan's presence
of ships and patrol aircraft is described by analysts as the first of its
kind since World War Two.
Admirals point to the deployment as a promising example of international
cooperation. While there is no one overall commander of international
efforts, there is coordination through monthly meetings and a secure
Internet chat room.
Some complain some of the emerging navies are too closely focused on
safeguarding only their own national shipping, and could be used more
effectively if coordination was better. Most emerging nations concentrate on
simply escorting their own national flag shipping -- although India is
particularly keen to stress it has escorted vessels of all nationalities.
Certainly, while the warships have had some success disrupting attacks, the
number of pirates is seen still rising. But overall, shippers say the naval
build-up is good news.
COMRADES IN ARMS?
"This is about protection of the trade routes," said Peter Hinchcliffe,
secretary general of the International Chamber of Shipping. "We absolutely
welcome the naval cooperation. Navies that were if not actually at war with
each other then definitely rivals are working together and are comrades in
arms. v"But some also see the rush of warships to the region -- which
largely began in 2008 after the hijacking of a Saudi oil tanker and a
Ukrainian ship carrying battle tanks -- as partly fuelled also by a worrying
growing international rivalry.
"I don't think it necessarily has to be one or the other," said Naval War
College's Gvosdev. "It can be both."
Meanwhile, cannier governments around the region may use the new focus on
the Indian Ocean to their benefit. Chinese financial support was key to Sri
Lanka's victory in its three decade war with Tamil Tiger rebels after
Western countries pulled back support over alleged human rights abuses.
To the concern of New Delhi, Beijing has helped fund a port at Hambantota on
the island's southern tip -- although Sri Lanka has been keen to stress its
civilian nature. For those already concerned by rising international
tensions over currencies, commodities and cyber warfare, Indian Ocean
rivalry could yet prove another potential flashpoint.
"I do not want to join the dots on this because I do not like the
implications," said Michael Power, global strategist for South African
Investec Asset Management. (Additional reporting by Carolyn Cohn; Editing by
Giles Elgood)
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