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From: Berhane Habtemariam (Berhane.Habtemariam@gmx.de)
Date: Sat Oct 16 2010 - 07:22:00 EDT
The end of Al Shabab as we know is nigh: - another white lie from the TFG
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Mareeg.com-16-oct-2010-The kingdom of Saudi Arabia is a Wahabi State and yet
the west has no problem dealing with it. I fail to understand the difference
between Somalia under Al Shabab and Saudi Arabia under the Saud"
Al Shabab Al Mujahidin evolved from a fringe unite of the Islamic Courts
union (ICU) in 2006 to the strongest and most disciplined movement in
Somalia that literally controls the South and central Somalia and also has
presence as far as Puntland and Somaliland - no faction or movement ever get
to such prominence in the two chaotic decades after the fall of Mr. Barre's
government. Al Shabab has so far dwarfed the concerted efforts of the local
warlords camouflaged, by Ethiopia, as the transitional federal government
(TFG) and the international community's negative propaganda and military
might. The strength of the movement is attributed to have come from its more
lofty religious ideology which transcends the zero sum game of the
traditional clan competition which epitomizes the failure of Somalia's
middle class and the fallout of the poorly devised unconstructive
intervention of the US through its clientele states of IGAD countries which
as consequence translated into a healthy dividend in favour of the movement
- AMISOM contingent is the latest and more feeble projects of military
nature are said to be in the pipeline.
Al Shabab is a movement oversubscribed by the disenchanted youth that grow
up during the civil war and as such has no connection what so ever to the
old establishments - the famous old clergy class like Sheikh Omer Faruq and
his likes that schooled them in the Wahabi teaching or the household name
politician class of yester years. The clergy and the politicians must
realize that they can't lead the kids they let down - Amir Mukhtar Abu
Zubeyr was born three days after I sat for my GCSE examination in Shabelle
Mennonite mission school . I can hardly relate to the Al Shabab people who
grow up in a very harsh time when the only gift from the US are helicopter
gunships and mass bombardments as opposed to the Peace Corps and educational
materials we used to associate with the Americans during our formative
years.
The late colonel Omer Hashi, TFG Security Minister, who died in the hands of
Al Shabab suicide bomber at a time he was leading an Ethiopian recruited
tribal militia was in reality practicing against what he was preaching two
months earlier. Col. Omer along with Sharif Ahmed and some others were in
Asmara while Al Shabab fighters were putting their life in the line of fire
solely to evict the Ethiopian invaders from the country and to replace the
TFG. The colonel and his mates - Djibouti ARS -mindlessly choose to back
stab the insurgency without taking in to consideration whether Al shabab
will fall in love with the same institution they were fighting to change-
watch the interview in which the colonel is highlighting the principles that
guides him and his ARS - Djibouti wing and reflect and judge by yourself,
how quickly he dumped all of his principles in exchange for a ministerial
post - study closely his stand in relation to the racist 4.5 power sharing
formula, the role of Ethiopia, Al Shabab and the regionalization of the
country.
<http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=GDE3b-hTVxA&feature=player_embedded%20/%20%2
1> Watch the interview given by Late Colonel Omer Hashi the interview shows
that ARS - Djibouti were nothing more than traitor's and opportunist's club.
Al - Shabab Al Mujahdin went through periods of power struggle and confusion
in its short life but managed to come out apparently with little scratches.
The most well-defined internal problem was the Baidabo debacle in which the
top leaders couldn't agree as to how best to deal with the TFG minsters and
security officers that were holed in Baidabo - the home town of Shiek Muktar
Rabow. Sheikh Mukhtar Rabow took more unconventional approach than the take
no hostage act Amir Mukhtar Abu Zubeyr and most of Al - Shabab leadership
were familiar to execute without fail. Sheikh Rabow's offer of safe passage
to the remnants from the TFG saved the city from destruction and won for him
the hearts of both the locals and the multitudes that were watching the
issue from afar. The Baidabo dispute was thought by then as if it is the end
of Al Shabab just like the alleged current dispute between the two top
leaders, most probably involving Abu Muslim rather than the Amir, is blown
out of proportion - the differences is over short - term strategy and
policies which is a common culture and life in every party . On the one
hand; the movement has no option but to stick together as the alternative is
humiliation, harassment and certain death for all Al Shabab members in the
hands of the CIA and on the other hand, the nation can hardly afford to see
too many smaller factions that jump on the wagon at 11 hours to fill the
vacuum and prolong the war.
Despite the tactical differences in the leadership, which is routine in
nature, they jointly concur in the common strategic goal of establishing a
Wahabi Islamic state with a black flag and the Quran as its constitution.
The role of the international Jihadists in the movement turned into a bone
of contention by the Western media is a fake field that has no bases but
within the sphere of Al Shabab the most pressing issue is the prevention of
the dismemberment of Somalia in the hands of Christian countries under the
leadership of the US. The feud between the two top leaders has the potential
to reshape the movement into a more logical, flexible and stately one as
opposed to the death song its opponents-Ethiopian pawns- are singing.
The movement has its own conflict resolution mechanism which might seem to
outsiders as archaic but rest assured it works for Al Shabab - The TFG
leadership and their fighters have a monopoly on daily in fights and
uninterrupted meaningless reshuffles. The Kismayo clash was much worse and
detrimental than the Baidabo argument and yet the movement came out with its
head high. If you closely look at the movement you can observe a pattern -
whenever its opponents anticipate disintegration- Al Shabab surprises them
by going from strength to strength unthought-of before.
Sheikh Mukhtar Robow Abu Mansur, Al Shabaab's second-in-command, has
rebuffed reports suggest there exist a leadership dispute particularly
between himself and Amir Mukhtar Abu Zubeyr.Speaking after Friday's
congregational prayer in a mosque in Karan District of the capital city
Mogadishu, Robow's dismissed the rumours of possible disagreements between
the top officials. He termed the reports baseless and groundless, accusing
the Transitional Federal Government of disseminating.
<http://www.universaltv24.com/?p=375> #
<http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=SYdA25eDJgc&feature=player_embedded%20/%20%2
1> Please Watch Sheikh Robow's Speech
This rumour surfaced at a time the movement is knocking at the gates of the
presidential palace, time the TFG is at its lowest in morale, time Premier
Meles Zenawi of Ethiopia is contemplating on a rescue mission of Amisom and
a time their goal is within reach. Sources close to the movement confirm
that there are differences in opinion in operational matters as the case has
always been but not heard of fundamental issues which Al Shabab's elite
thought has the potentiality to cloud out the realization of the objectives
of the movement.
Despite their unique interpretation of Quran, the Islamists - Al Shabab and
Hisbi - Islam- at this point in time stand alone for the resurrection of the
Somali nation and are struggling to contain the ambition of Ethiopia,
through the TFG and so called self rule regions, to turn the country in to a
colony of its own or to keep it in perpetual state of civil war. As long as
the current status quo of imposing solutions that are detrimental to the
existence of the nation is the norm there will always be a resistance of
some sort that will grow in complexity proportionate to the pressure the
blind international community exerts on.
Conclusion and Recommendations: - Even a trapped beast struggles
Foreign military intervention of the mightiest army in the world failed to
change the tide in Afghanistan and I wonder how 20, 000, the maximum the AU
is contemplating, under equipped Ugandans can legitimize an illegal
institution - An institution that is hated for what it stands for and that
live to this day in the Barracks of the occupation force more than a year
after they were airlifted in to the presidential palace.
If Somalia failed! The blame lies with its inept elite and middle class that
refused to grow beyond clan, tribal and regional outlook. The elite of the
nation should come up with new ideas that can address the genuine concerns
of the nation. The masses and the international community are fed up with
the lack of consequential input from the side of the Somali elite -
repeating like parrots whatever the western media broadcasts is disservice
and misleading to both the nation and to the international community.
International community's intervention can bear fruit only after the elite
of the beneficiary nation are robust enough to contribute meaningful input,
even if it angers the west, when the projects are at the drawing board.
In all counts it appears that the prospect for Somalia to attain peace
depends on how soon the two Islamists merge as the alternative is the sick
and defunct TFG (Ethiopian Trojan Horse) that has no agenda except to line
up their pockets irrespective of the cost to the common man.
Mr. Abdikarim Buh
Political analyst and WardheerNews contributor
E-mail: <mailto:abdikarimbuh@yahoo.com> abdikarimbuh@yahoo.com
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