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From: Tsegai Emmanuel (emmanuelt40@gmail.com)
Date: Fri Oct 22 2010 - 02:42:23 EDT
The U.S.-Saudi Arms Deal and Riyadh's Military Challenge
October 21, 2010 | 1920 GMT
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U.S. Department of Defense
A Royal Saudi Air Force F-15 Eagle fighter aircraft
Summary
Despite a new $60 billion arms package, fundamental challenges for the Saudi
military remain. Before Saudi Arabia undertakes significant reforms of its
military training and doctrine and tackles manpower issues, it will be
unable to use the new hardware effectively.
Analysis
The U.S. government formally notified Congress on Oct. 20 of a $60 billion
arms sale to Saudi Arabia. The package, which includes both combat aircraft
and military helicopters, is considerable and will provide the Saudis with
even more of some of the most modern fighter jets in the entire region.
Militarily, however, Riyadh’s challenge is not a matter of hardware: Saudi
Arabia already fields a broad spectrum of some of the highest-end and most
modern military equipment in the region. Instead, its challenge is fielding
that hardware. With deliveries years away, the new deal will do little to
balance the resurgent Iranian regime in the near-term, and prolongs Saudi
Arabia’s heavy dependence on U.S. defense support.
The new package, which will reinforce the quality and quantity of Saudi
military hardware over the course of the next two decades, will include:
- 84 new-build and more modern variants of the F-15S combat fighter
aircraft.
- The upgrade of 70 existing Saudi F-15S to this new standard.
- 70 AH-64 Apache attack helicopters.
- 72 UH-60 Black Hawk utility helicopters.
- 36 AH-6i light attack-reconnaissance helicopters.
- 12 light training helicopters.
- Associated armaments, including air-to-air and air-to-ground ordnance
(including 1,000 “bunker-buster” bombs designed to penetrate hardened and
deeply buried facilities).
The Boeing Co. in particular along with Sikorsky stand to benefit
significantly from the deal in the next two decades. Past Saudi defense
purchases have not simply added newer and newer defense equipment to an
already-modern military, they have also created significant training,
maintenance and doctrinal issues for which the Saudis are ill-equipped to
handle.
Like many Gulf Arab states, the Saudi regime has long feared its own
military more than any external threat. The Saudis have relied upon the
United States to deter and defend against external threats. As such, while
military interests receive generous allotments of money and modern defense
hardware, they have lacked the organization and leadership to employ that
equipment effectively. In many cases, they have been kept deliberately weak
doctrinally and institutionally to prevent them from becoming capable of
mounting a coup.
This means that when the British agreed to sell Saudi Arabia 72 Eurofighter
Typhoon combat aircraft<http://www.stratfor.com/saudi_arabia_when_fighter_upgrade_not_upgrade?fn=2217424670>,
the Saudis were buying more jet fighters the Royal Saudi Air Force could not
employ effectively. They were adding an enormous additional burden in terms
of the training, maintenance and doctrinal work required to integrate the
Typhoons into an air force with too many aircraft and too few pilots and
commanders.
Ultimately, with or without this latest deal, the issue for Riyadh is
whether there will be any concurrent shift in leadership, manpower, training
and institutional organization to begin to craft a cadre of military
professionals capable of wielding existing and new defense hardware
competently. The immaturity of Saudi training and doctrine and underlying
issues with manpower are pervasive. Such issues can take a generation to
even begin to resolve. Without the simultaneous reform of the Saudi military
itself, this sale will continue to provide Riyadh with an impressive array
of hardware it will have difficulty employing effectively.
Unlike before, however, Riyadh’s perspective on reform has begun to change
significantly as a result of the Saudi military’s challenges in managing
cross-border issues with Yemen’s al-Houthi rebels. The Saudi government
continues to worry that the insurgency and al Qaeda in the Arabian Peninsula
will spill across the border in greater numbers. This is not a fight that
requires the latest F-15, but it is one that requires the Saudi military to
function professionally. After the Saudi military’s underwhelming
performance against the al-Houthi rebels, a push for meaningful reform has
gained strength.
Similarly, without a strong Iraq likely to emerge any time soon, the United
States is in need of a counterbalance to a resurgent Iran. While Saudi
Arabia is not in a position to play that role, comprehensive military reform
and an effective military could significantly alter the military balance in
the region. Unfortunately for both Washington and Riyadh, even if done
exceptionally well, this is a generational process — so meaningful
improvement is years away at best. Still, if the new hardware purchase is
accompanied with serious reform, then in the years ahead, the Saudi military
might become a significant force. Until then, for all its military hardware,
Saudi Arabia will remain relatively weak in terms of defense.
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