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From: Berhane Habtemariam (Berhane.Habtemariam@gmx.de)
Date: Fri Oct 29 2010 - 11:30:24 EDT
<http://allafrica.com/sudan/> Sudan: Former U.S. Special Envoy Says
Turabi's Loyalists Seeking to Undermine Referendum
29 October 2010
_____
Washington - The former U.S. special envoy to Sudan on Tuesday said that
elements within the government loyal to the Islamist opposition leader
Hassan Al-Turabi are seeking to derail the January 2011 referendum in order
to avert what appears to be the likely separation of the South.
Andrew Natsios who just returned from a trip that took him to South Sudan
said that while president Omer Hassan Al-Bashir and his 2nd Vice president
Ali Osman Taha are "moderates", he pointed fingers at pro-Turabi figures
within the regime who do not want the South to separate.
On January 9, 2011 the people of South Sudan are scheduled to vote in a
self-determination referendum in order to decide whether they want to remain
as part of united Sudan or create their own state. It is widely expected
that secession will be the overwhelming choice of Southerners.
The referendums in south Sudan and the oil-rich region of Abyei were a
centerpiece of a 2005 accord which ended two decades of civil war in which
about two million people died. Preparations for the key votes have proceeded
haltingly amid political and logistical obstacles, and the southerners have
accused the northerners of stalling, warning of violence if the referendum
is delayed.
Furthermore, it is all but certain that the Abyei referendum will be delayed
as the commission to oversee it has not been established yet. Northern
officials have publicly asserted that the disputed border area will not have
its vote held as scheduled as issues of border demarcation and eligibility
of voters have yet to be resolved.
On Wednesday, the referendum commission chief Mohamed Ibrahim Khalil said
that holding the vote within the remaining time would be a "miracle."
The former U.S. special envoy in an interview with Sudan Tribune, said that
preparations for conduct of the referendum would be running smoothly if it
wasn't for the government seeking to place impediments and deploying
delaying tactics in their negotiations with the Sudan People Liberation
Movement (SPLM).
"If the Sudanese government stops stonewalling .... They [National Congress
Party] are trying to use the referendum as a weapon. The north wants to get
a higher use of oil, they want a deal on Nile river and debt level," Natsios
said.
According to a timetable released by the referendum commission, voters will
now be registered between November 14 and December 1 and the final list of
voters will be published on January 4, five days before the start of voting.
Natsios dismissed criticisms that the tight timeline will undermine the
credibility of the plebiscite.
"I don't think the issue of transparency is related to timing. It is really
about the logistics and putting everything in place for the vote to take
place. Most of the work on the actual logistics is carried out by the UN and
other NGO's," he said.
He also warned that any move to delay the vote by more than two weeks "could
bring violence" to the region. Furthermore, he said that the Obama
administration should be prepared to use its air force should the North
attempt to invade the South or take over the oilfields.
The North and South have yet to agree on contentious post-referendum
arrangements including border demarcation, wealth sharing, water agreements,
citizenship and national debt. Officials from the NCP have hinted that no
referendum can be held without finalizing the border demarcation.
The Georgetown University professor described the North-based government as
"weak" with crumbling control over the Africa's largest country.
"They are losing control of Darfur and South, people in the East from the
Beja [tribe] are getting very upset.... They cancelled some very important
agricultural and irrigation projects in Gezira [state]" he said.
Natsios noted controversial statements made by the former finance minister
Abdel-Rahim Hamdi five years ago in which he called on the NCP to undertake
massive development projects within a very limited area of the North in
order to build a reliable electoral base while ignoring other parts of the
country.
He also suggested that the NCP has little confidence in the loyalty of the
army particularly after the attack by the Darfuri Justice and Equality
Movement (JEM) on the capital in May 2008 for their belief that it is
heavily infiltrated by supporters of Turabi who now heads the Popular
Congress Party (PCP).
"They [the army] did not intervene [to stop the JEM attack] which I find
stunning considering how close they got to overthrowing the government.
Fifty percent of the army leadership was handpicked by Turabi," Natsios
said. He further added that intelligence bureaus in the region believe
Turabi will make another attempt to overthrow the government.
Turabi, who was close to Sudan's President Omar Hassan al- Bashir before a
bitter power struggle and split in 1999-2000 has been accused by Khartoum of
being behind JEM which has waged war against the central government since
2003 in Darfur.
"The question we need to ask ourselves is how much stress are they [the NCP]
under; they are standing with their back against the wall. They are getting
so weak now they can't enforce an agreement," he said.
The former envoy referred to the stalemate over Abyei stressing that the NCP
has lost control over the issue to the Arab Misseriya tribe who live in the
area.
"80%-90% is what I am told is demarcated [in North-South Sudan borders]. The
real issue is that of Abyei. I don't think they [the NCP] have the political
power over the Misseriya anymore....the north is too weak" he said, adding
that compromises offered by the SPLM to break the deadlock were rejected for
that particular reason.
The Misseriya tribesmen fought with the north during the two-decade civil
war against southern rebels that ended in 2005. Natsios said he finds it
"interesting" that the Misseriya are now formally incorporated in the
Sudanese army.
Nonetheless, Natsios emphasized that both the leaders of the North and South
know that "they have a lot to lose" if they go to war "no matter how much
they despise each other".
"They [North and South] know if they fail [to avert a war] the oil flow will
stop. They are dependent on each other. They have built huge public sectors
with thousands on their payroll," he said, adding that he was impressed with
the development that took place in Juba.
Natsios said he is "cautiously optimistic" over the future of the country
after the referendum and revealed that he finished working on a series of
books titled "'What everyone needs to know about Sudan and Darfur" that will
be published by Oxford University Press and will be out early in 2011.
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