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From: Berhane Habtemariam (Berhane.Habtemariam@gmx.de)
Date: Thu Nov 04 2010 - 09:23:04 EST
<http://www.sundaytimes.lk/analysis/1549-western-pressure-on-yemen-could-bac
kfire> Western pressure on Yemen could backfire
Thursday, 04 November 2010 13:25 Mohideen Mifthah
DUBAI, Nov 4, 2010 (AFP) - Mounting Western pressure on Yemen to intensify
its campaign against Al-Qaeda could backfire in a country already weakened
by internal conflicts and poverty and with a suspicious populace, analysts
say.
The ancestral homeland of Osama bin Laden and headquarters of Al-Qaeda in
the Arabian Peninsula (AQAP) is battling secessionist elements in the south,
a rebellion in the north and increasing economic difficulties.
With two US-bound parcel bombs having been traced to suspected jihadists in
Yemen, President Ali Abdullah Saleh is hearing ever-louder Western demands
to curb a rapidly growing Al-Qaeda threat emerging from his country's soil.
"The problem with the international vision is that it excessively focuses on
the terrorist threat, which itself is only a symptom of other problems,"
said Laurent Bonnefoy, a political scientist who has worked in Yemen for
years.
There were no Al-Qaeda attacks in Yemen between 2002 and 2007, mostly due to
a tacit collusion between the authorities and armed militants to avoid
direct confrontation, Bonnefoy notes.
"The regime is under Western pressure, but unfortunately its efforts aren't
very effective," he said, expressing a view held by others that Saleh simply
does not have the resources to do the job.
Amr Hamzawy, a research director at the Carnegie Middle East Centre in
Beirut, doubts the capability of Saleh's regime to fight Al-Qaeda.
"Does Saleh have the tools to fight Al-Qaeda," asks Hamzawy. "I doubt it
very much. But he has no other option.""The state is weak and becoming
weaker; Yemen is degenerating," he said.
Long-term stability can only be achieved by resolving social and economic
problems, Hamzawy says, in what is the poorest country in the Arab world.
He believes that, for now, Yemen has no choice but to confront Al-Qaeda
using Western "military and intelligence information" combined with
"technical and security support."The US military currently oversees a
155-million-dollar (111 million euro) programme to bolster the
counterterrorism campaign. It provides helicopters, equipment and training
by US special forces, and has also been widely reported as carrying out
missile strikes against militants.
Fares al-Saqqaf, president of the Centre for Future Studies in Sanaa, agrees
that despite showing a will to do so, Saleh cannot fight the jihadists
alone.
"The regime is in an awkward position. (Saleh) says he could fight Al-Qaeda
on his own but has proved that he cannot do it."Western countries want "more
concessions," including direct US involvement in operations against
Al-Qaeda, Saqqaf said.
Following the failed parcels bomb plot, which experts say showed high
sophistication, US officials are weighing expanding operations in Yemen to
hunt down Al-Qaeda extremists.
"The intelligence community has been increasing its focus on Yemen and, for
obvious reasons, this will continue to be the case," a US official told AFP,
speaking on condition of anonymity.
The Wall Street Journal reported that President Barack Obama's
administration was considering placing under CIA authority elite
"hunter-killer" special operations teams that would operate secretly in the
country to track and kill Al-Qaeda leaders.
Shifting to a more covert strategy would allow Washington to move faster
against suspected targets and enable Sanaa to deny knowledge of the strikes,
but the approach, denied by the Pentagon, risks triggering a popular back
lash in Yemen.
Discreet US interventions have so far only turned the population against the
central government.
A US cruise missile fired against Al-Qaeda in the south last December killed
55 people, Amnesty International said. Yemeni authorities claimed to have
conducted the raid.
A similar operation in May, according to a New York Times report, resulted
in the death of a deputy provincial capital governor as he tried to
negotiate the surrender of suspected militants in the network, provoking the
wrath of his tribe.
Saleh "finds himself caught in a kind of trap. How credible can a president
who accepts American bombings on Yemeni soil be in the eyes of his people,"
asks Bonnefoy.
"I think this repression is counter-productive and can only increase
Al-Qaeda's popularity and ultimately legitimise their position."
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